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Win projections
So A&M's win over Auburn changed some things, huh?
| East | F/+ Ranking | Proj. Conf. Wins | Last Week (Change) | With Week 12 win | With Week 12 loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Missouri (4-1, 7-2) | 36 | 5.66 | 5.83 (-0.18) | 6.05 | 5.05 |
| Georgia (5-2, 7-2) | 13 | 5.34 | 5.08 (+0.26) | 6-2 | 5-3 |
| Florida (4-3, 5-3) | 41 | 4.72 | 4.66 (+0.07) | 5-3 | 4-4 |
| Tennessee (1-4, 4-5) | 38 | 3.38 | 3.30 (+0.08) | 3.51 | 2.51 |
| South Carolina (2-5, 4-5) | 52 | 2.28 | 2.26 (+0.02) | 3-5 | 2-6 |
| Kentucky (2-5, 5-5) | 77 | 2.13 | 2.32 (-0.19) | 3-5 | 2-6 |
| Vanderbilt (0-6, 3-7) | 110 | 0.10 | 0.18 (-0.08) | ||
| West | F/+ Ranking | Proj. Conf. Wins | Last Week (Change) | With Week 12 win | With Week 12 loss |
| Mississippi State (5-0, 8-0) | 6 | 6.63 | 6.72 (-0.09) | 7.33 | 6.33 |
| Alabama (5-1, 8-1) | 1 | 6.37 | 5.66 (+0.71) | 6.68 | 5.68 |
| Ole Miss (4-2, 8-2) | 2 | 5.54 | 5.53 (+0.01) | ||
| Auburn (4-2, 7-2) | 5 | 4.98 | 6.35 (-1.37) | 5.32 | 4.32 |
| LSU (3-3, 7-3) | 10 | 4.66 | 5.15 (-0.49) | 4.86 | 3.86 |
| Texas A&M (3-3, 7-3) | 47 | 3.53 | 2.35 (+1.18) | 4.14 | 3.14 |
| Arkansas (0-5, 4-5) | 37 | 0.68 | 0.61 (+0.06) | 1.48 | 0.48 |
East
Average projected wins start to lose their effect when we get close to the finish line, and since College and Magnolia have already drawn out the who-wins-and-how scenarios, let's start there and add the win probabilities found at the bottom of this post.
(And here's where I remind you that the F/+ ratings and win probabilities cull from the entire season, not just last week. Missouri is still given a 60% chance of beating A&M because A&M's near loss against ULM carries equal weight to the Aggies' win over Auburn. Adjust your own odds however you see fit.)
| Auburn at Georgia |
Missouri at Texas A&M |
South Carolina at Florida |
Missouri at Tennessee |
Arkansas at Missouri |
WINNER | Odds |
| (Auburn 65.9%) | (Missouri 59.8%) | (Florida 71.9%) | (Tennessee 59.6%) | (Missouri 59.6%) | ||
| Auburn | Missouri | South Carolina | Missouri | Arkansas | Missouri | 1.6% |
| Auburn | Missouri | South Carolina | Missouri | Missouri | Missouri | 2.9% |
| Auburn | Missouri | South Carolina | Tennessee | Arkansas | Georgia | 2.4% |
| Auburn | Missouri | South Carolina | Tennessee | Missouri | Missouri | 4.2% |
| Auburn | Missouri | Florida | Missouri | Arkansas | Missouri | 4.1% |
| Auburn | Missouri | Florida | Missouri | Missouri | Missouri | 7.3% |
| Auburn | Missouri | Florida | Tennessee | Arkansas | Florida | 6.1% |
| Auburn | Missouri | Florida | Tennessee | Missouri | Missouri | 10.8% |
| Auburn | Texas A&M | South Carolina | Missouri | Arkansas | Georgia | 1.1% |
| Auburn | Texas A&M | South Carolina | Missouri | Missouri | Missouri | 1.9% |
| Auburn | Texas A&M | South Carolina | Tennessee | Arkansas | Georgia | 1.6% |
| Auburn | Texas A&M | South Carolina | Tennessee | Missouri | Georgia | 2.8% |
| Auburn | Texas A&M | Florida | Missouri | Arkansas | Missouri | 2.8% |
| Auburn | Texas A&M | Florida | Missouri | Missouri | Missouri | 4.9% |
| Auburn | Texas A&M | Florida | Tennessee | Arkansas | Florida | 4.1% |
| Auburn | Texas A&M | Florida | Tennessee | Missouri | Florida | 7.2% |
| Georgia | Missouri | South Carolina | Missouri | Arkansas | Georgia | 0.8% |
| Georgia | Missouri | South Carolina | Missouri | Missouri | Missouri | 1.5% |
| Georgia | Missouri | South Carolina | Tennessee | Arkansas | Georgia | 1.2% |
| Georgia | Missouri | South Carolina | Tennessee | Missouri | Georgia | 2.2% |
| Georgia | Missouri | Florida | Missouri | Arkansas | Georgia | 2.1% |
| Georgia | Missouri | Florida | Missouri | Missouri | Missouri | 3.8% |
| Georgia | Missouri | Florida | Tennessee | Arkansas | Georgia | 3.2% |
| Georgia | Missouri | Florida | Tennessee | Missouri | Georgia | 5.6% |
| Georgia | Texas A&M | N/A | N/A | N/A | Georgia | 13.7% |
That leaves us with the following odds for winning the East: Missouri 45.7%, Georgia 36.8%, Florida 17.4%.
Florida and South Carolina kick off at noon ET, so we'll know that result well before Missouri-ATM and Georgia-Auburn kick off that evening.
If Florida wins, the odds are as follows: Missouri 46.8%, Georgia 28.9%, Florida 24.3%.
If South Carolina wins, the odds are as follows: Georgia 57.0%, Missouri 43.0%.
So let's break that out further.
If Florida wins...
If Georgia and Missouri win: Georgia 74.2%, Missouri 25.8%
If Georgia and A&M win: Georgia 100.0%
If Auburn and Missouri win: Missouri 78.4%, Florida 21.6%
If Auburn and A&M win: Florida 59.6%, Missouri 40.4%
If South Carolina wins...
If Georgia and Missouri win: Georgia 74.2%, Missouri 25.8%
If Georgia and A&M win: Georgia 100.0%
If Auburn and Missouri win: Missouri 78.4%, Georgia 21.6%
If Auburn and A&M win: Georgia 74.2%, Missouri 25.8%
Obviously Florida only has a chance if Georgia loses again (because otherwise the Dawgs finish 6-2), but really, Missouri's odds are also dictated by Georgia losing again. The Tigers basically have three tossup games left on the schedule, and if Georgia wins, Missouri has to land heads three times in a row.
If you're a Missouri fan: Go Gators, go Mizzou, go Auburn.
If you're a Georgia fan: Go 'Cocks, go Aggies, go Dawgs.
If you're a Florida fan: Go Gators, go Aggies, go Auburn.
West
It will only take four games to decide the West -- two on Saturday, two over Thanksgiving weekend -- but four teams still have a shot. And while none of the four games are true tossups, they're all pretty close.
| Mississippi St. at Alabama |
Auburn at Georgia |
Mississippi St. at Ole Miss |
Auburn at Alabama |
WINNER | Odds |
| (Alabama 68.3%) | (Auburn 65.9%) | (Ole Miss 65.9%) | (Alabama 67.5%) | ||
| Mississippi State | N/A | N/A | N/A | Mississippi State | 31.7% |
| Alabama | Auburn | Mississippi State | Auburn | Mississippi State | 5.1% |
| Alabama | Auburn | Mississippi State | Alabama | Alabama | 10.6% |
| Alabama | Auburn | Ole Miss | Auburn | Auburn | 9.5% |
| Alabama | Auburn | Ole Miss | Alabama | Alabama | 19.8% |
| Alabama | Georgia | Mississippi State | Auburn | Mississippi State | 2.6% |
| Alabama | Georgia | Mississippi State | Alabama | Alabama | 5.5% |
| Alabama | Georgia | Ole Miss | Auburn | Ole Miss | 4.9% |
| Alabama | Georgia | Ole Miss | Alabama | Alabama | 10.3% |
That leaves us with the following odds for winning the West: Alabama 46.1%, Mississippi State 39.4%, Auburn 9.5%, Ole Miss 4.9%.
Alabama and Mississippi State kick off at 3:30 p.m. ET on Saturday, then Auburn and Georgia kick off in the evening.
If Alabama wins, the odds are as follows: Alabama 67.5%, Auburn 14.0%, Mississippi State 11.3%, Ole Miss 7.2%.
If Mississippi State wins, there really aren't any odds: Mississippi State 100.0%.
So let's say Alabama wins. What does the evening game determine?
If Alabama and Auburn win: Alabama 67.5%, Auburn 21.2%, Mississippi State 11.3%.
If Alabama and Georgia win: Alabama 67.5%, Ole Miss 21.2%, Mississippi State 11.3%.
Two weeks ago, Auburn knocked Ole Miss out of the national title race with what went down as one of the Rebels' most painful losses ever. Saturday night, the Tigers can knock the Rebs out of the SEC West race, too, at least if Mississippi State hasn't already done so.
If you're an MSU fan: Go Bulldogs, period.
If you're an Alabama fan: Go Tide, period.
If you're an Auburn fan: Go Tide, go Auburn.
If you're an Ole Miss fan: Go Tide, go Dawgs.
All Projections
| Week | Date | Road | Home | Road Team's %Chance |
| 12 | 15-Nov-14 | Auburn | Georgia | 65.9% |
| 12 | 15-Nov-14 | Kentucky | Tennessee | 12.9% |
| 12 | 15-Nov-14 | LSU | Arkansas | 79.6% |
| 12 | 15-Nov-14 | Mississippi State | Alabama | 31.7% |
| 12 | 15-Nov-14 | Missouri | Texas A&M | 59.8% |
| 12 | 15-Nov-14 | South Carolina | Florida | 28.1% |
| Week | Date | Road | Home | Road Team's %Chance |
| 13 | 22-Nov-14 | Missouri | Tennessee | 40.4% |
| 13 | 22-Nov-14 | Ole Miss | Arkansas | 87.3% |
| 13 | 22-Nov-14 | Vanderbilt | Mississippi State | 1.4% |
| Week | Date | Road | Home | Road Team's %Chance |
| 14 | 27-Nov-14 | LSU | Texas A&M | 86.5% |
| 14 | 28-Nov-14 | Arkansas | Missouri | 36.2% |
| 14 | 29-Nov-14 | Auburn | Alabama | 32.5% |
| 14 | 29-Nov-14 | Mississippi State | Ole Miss | 34.8% |
| 14 | 29-Nov-14 | Tennessee | Vanderbilt | 91.5% |
Title Games and Title Odds
So if we have title odds for each division, that means we have odds for all possible title game scenarios.
| Missouri | Georgia | Florida | |
| Alabama | 21% | 17% | 8% |
| Mississippi State | 18% | 15% | 7% |
| Auburn | 4% | 4% | 2% |
| Ole Miss | 2% | 2% | 1% |
And here are the odds for all possible title games
Missouri vs. Alabama: Alabama 92%
Missouri vs. Mississippi State: MSU 90%
Missouri vs. Auburn: Auburn 90%
Missouri vs. Ole Miss: Ole Miss 91%
Georgia vs. Alabama: Alabama 76%
Georgia vs. Mississippi State: MSU 72%
Georgia vs. Auburn: Auburn 72%
Georgia vs. Ole Miss: Ole Miss 73%
Florida vs. Alabama: Alabama 95%
Florida vs. Mississippi State: MSU 93%
Florida vs. Auburn: Auburn 93%
Florida vs. Ole Miss: Ole Miss 93%
Combine that all together, and you get the following odds for winning the SEC:
1. Alabama 39.9%
2. Mississippi State 33.1%
3. Georgia 9.6%
4. Auburn 8.1%
5. Ole Miss 4.2%
6. Missouri 4.1%
7. Florida 1.1%
You've still got a chance, Gators.
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