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Updated SEC conference projections after 11 weeks

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Kevin Liles-USA TODAY Sports

Win projections

So A&M's win over Auburn changed some things, huh?

Odds of conference records
East F/+ Ranking Proj. Conf. Wins Last Week (Change) With Week 12 win With Week 12 loss
Missouri (4-1, 7-2) 36 5.66 5.83 (-0.18) 6.05 5.05
Georgia (5-2, 7-2) 13 5.34 5.08 (+0.26) 6-2 5-3
Florida (4-3, 5-3) 41 4.72 4.66 (+0.07) 5-3 4-4
Tennessee (1-4, 4-5) 38 3.38 3.30 (+0.08) 3.51 2.51
South Carolina (2-5, 4-5) 52 2.28 2.26 (+0.02) 3-5 2-6
Kentucky (2-5, 5-5) 77 2.13 2.32 (-0.19) 3-5 2-6
Vanderbilt (0-6, 3-7) 110 0.10 0.18 (-0.08)

West F/+ Ranking Proj. Conf. Wins Last Week (Change) With Week 12 win With Week 12 loss
Mississippi State (5-0, 8-0) 6 6.63 6.72 (-0.09) 7.33 6.33
Alabama (5-1, 8-1) 1 6.37 5.66 (+0.71) 6.68 5.68
Ole Miss (4-2, 8-2) 2 5.54 5.53 (+0.01)

Auburn (4-2, 7-2) 5 4.98 6.35 (-1.37) 5.32 4.32
LSU (3-3, 7-3) 10 4.66 5.15 (-0.49) 4.86 3.86
Texas A&M (3-3, 7-3) 47 3.53 2.35 (+1.18) 4.14 3.14
Arkansas (0-5, 4-5) 37 0.68 0.61 (+0.06) 1.48 0.48

East

Average projected wins start to lose their effect when we get close to the finish line, and since College and Magnolia have already drawn out the who-wins-and-how scenarios, let's start there and add the win probabilities found at the bottom of this post.

(And here's where I remind you that the F/+ ratings and win probabilities cull from the entire season, not just last week. Missouri is still given a 60% chance of beating A&M because A&M's near loss against ULM carries equal weight to the Aggies' win over Auburn. Adjust your own odds however you see fit.)

Auburn
at
Georgia
Missouri
at
Texas A&M
South Carolina
at
Florida
Missouri
at
Tennessee
Arkansas
at
Missouri
WINNER Odds
(Auburn 65.9%) (Missouri 59.8%) (Florida 71.9%) (Tennessee 59.6%) (Missouri 59.6%)
Auburn Missouri South Carolina Missouri Arkansas Missouri 1.6%
Auburn Missouri South Carolina Missouri Missouri Missouri 2.9%
Auburn Missouri South Carolina Tennessee Arkansas Georgia 2.4%
Auburn Missouri South Carolina Tennessee Missouri Missouri 4.2%
Auburn Missouri Florida Missouri Arkansas Missouri 4.1%
Auburn Missouri Florida Missouri Missouri Missouri 7.3%
Auburn Missouri Florida Tennessee Arkansas Florida 6.1%
Auburn Missouri Florida Tennessee Missouri Missouri 10.8%
Auburn Texas A&M South Carolina Missouri Arkansas Georgia 1.1%
Auburn Texas A&M South Carolina Missouri Missouri Missouri 1.9%
Auburn Texas A&M South Carolina Tennessee Arkansas Georgia 1.6%
Auburn Texas A&M South Carolina Tennessee Missouri Georgia 2.8%
Auburn Texas A&M Florida Missouri Arkansas Missouri 2.8%
Auburn Texas A&M Florida Missouri Missouri Missouri 4.9%
Auburn Texas A&M Florida Tennessee Arkansas Florida 4.1%
Auburn Texas A&M Florida Tennessee Missouri Florida 7.2%
Georgia Missouri South Carolina Missouri Arkansas Georgia 0.8%
Georgia Missouri South Carolina Missouri Missouri Missouri 1.5%
Georgia Missouri South Carolina Tennessee Arkansas Georgia 1.2%
Georgia Missouri South Carolina Tennessee Missouri Georgia 2.2%
Georgia Missouri Florida Missouri Arkansas Georgia 2.1%
Georgia Missouri Florida Missouri Missouri Missouri 3.8%
Georgia Missouri Florida Tennessee Arkansas Georgia 3.2%
Georgia Missouri Florida Tennessee Missouri Georgia 5.6%
Georgia Texas A&M N/A N/A N/A Georgia 13.7%

That leaves us with the following odds for winning the East: Missouri 45.7%, Georgia 36.8%, Florida 17.4%.

Florida and South Carolina kick off at noon ET, so we'll know that result well before Missouri-ATM and Georgia-Auburn kick off that evening.

If Florida wins, the odds are as follows: Missouri 46.8%, Georgia 28.9%, Florida 24.3%.

If South Carolina wins, the odds are as follows: Georgia 57.0%, Missouri 43.0%.

So let's break that out further.

If Florida wins...
If Georgia and Missouri win: Georgia 74.2%, Missouri 25.8%
If Georgia and A&M win: Georgia 100.0%
If Auburn and Missouri win: Missouri 78.4%, Florida 21.6%
If Auburn and A&M win: Florida 59.6%, Missouri 40.4%

If South Carolina wins...
If Georgia and Missouri win: Georgia 74.2%, Missouri 25.8%
If Georgia and A&M win: Georgia 100.0%
If Auburn and Missouri win: Missouri 78.4%, Georgia 21.6%
If Auburn and A&M win: Georgia 74.2%, Missouri 25.8%

Obviously Florida only has a chance if Georgia loses again (because otherwise the Dawgs finish 6-2), but really, Missouri's odds are also dictated by Georgia losing again. The Tigers basically have three tossup games left on the schedule, and if Georgia wins, Missouri has to land heads three times in a row.

If you're a Missouri fan: Go Gators, go Mizzou, go Auburn.
If you're a Georgia fan: Go 'Cocks, go Aggies, go Dawgs.
If you're a Florida fan: Go Gators, go Aggies, go Auburn
.

West

It will only take four games to decide the West -- two on Saturday, two over Thanksgiving weekend -- but four teams still have a shot. And while none of the four games are true tossups, they're all pretty close.

Mississippi St.
at
Alabama
Auburn
at
Georgia
Mississippi St.
at
Ole Miss
Auburn
at
Alabama
WINNER Odds
(Alabama 68.3%) (Auburn 65.9%) (Ole Miss 65.9%) (Alabama 67.5%)
Mississippi State N/A N/A N/A Mississippi State 31.7%
Alabama Auburn Mississippi State Auburn Mississippi State 5.1%
Alabama Auburn Mississippi State Alabama Alabama 10.6%
Alabama Auburn Ole Miss Auburn Auburn 9.5%
Alabama Auburn Ole Miss Alabama Alabama 19.8%
Alabama Georgia Mississippi State Auburn Mississippi State 2.6%
Alabama Georgia Mississippi State Alabama Alabama 5.5%
Alabama Georgia Ole Miss Auburn Ole Miss 4.9%
Alabama Georgia Ole Miss Alabama Alabama 10.3%

That leaves us with the following odds for winning the West: Alabama 46.1%, Mississippi State 39.4%, Auburn 9.5%, Ole Miss 4.9%.

Alabama and Mississippi State kick off at 3:30 p.m. ET on Saturday, then Auburn and Georgia kick off in the evening.

If Alabama wins, the odds are as follows: Alabama 67.5%, Auburn 14.0%, Mississippi State 11.3%, Ole Miss 7.2%.

If Mississippi State wins, there really aren't any odds: Mississippi State 100.0%.

So let's say Alabama wins. What does the evening game determine?

If Alabama and Auburn win: Alabama 67.5%, Auburn 21.2%, Mississippi State 11.3%.

If Alabama and Georgia win: Alabama 67.5%, Ole Miss 21.2%, Mississippi State 11.3%.

Two weeks ago, Auburn knocked Ole Miss out of the national title race with what went down as one of the Rebels' most painful losses ever. Saturday night, the Tigers can knock the Rebs out of the SEC West race, too, at least if Mississippi State hasn't already done so.

If you're an MSU fan: Go Bulldogs, period.
If you're an Alabama fan: Go Tide, period.
If you're an Auburn fan: Go Tide, go Auburn.
If you're an Ole Miss fan: Go Tide, go Dawgs.

All Projections

Week Date Road Home Road Team's %Chance
12 15-Nov-14 Auburn Georgia 65.9%
12 15-Nov-14 Kentucky Tennessee 12.9%
12 15-Nov-14 LSU Arkansas 79.6%
12 15-Nov-14 Mississippi State Alabama 31.7%
12 15-Nov-14 Missouri Texas A&M 59.8%
12 15-Nov-14 South Carolina Florida 28.1%
Week Date Road Home Road Team's %Chance
13 22-Nov-14 Missouri Tennessee 40.4%
13 22-Nov-14 Ole Miss Arkansas 87.3%
13 22-Nov-14 Vanderbilt Mississippi State 1.4%
Week Date Road Home Road Team's %Chance
14 27-Nov-14 LSU Texas A&M 86.5%
14 28-Nov-14 Arkansas Missouri 36.2%
14 29-Nov-14 Auburn Alabama 32.5%
14 29-Nov-14 Mississippi State Ole Miss 34.8%
14 29-Nov-14 Tennessee Vanderbilt 91.5%

Title Games and Title Odds

So if we have title odds for each division, that means we have odds for all possible title game scenarios.

Missouri Georgia Florida
Alabama 21% 17% 8%
Mississippi State 18% 15% 7%
Auburn 4% 4% 2%
Ole Miss 2% 2% 1%

And here are the odds for all possible title games

Missouri vs. Alabama: Alabama 92%
Missouri vs. Mississippi State: MSU 90%
Missouri vs. Auburn: Auburn 90%
Missouri vs. Ole Miss: Ole Miss 91%

Georgia vs. Alabama: Alabama 76%
Georgia vs. Mississippi State: MSU 72%
Georgia vs. Auburn: Auburn 72%
Georgia vs. Ole Miss: Ole Miss 73%

Florida vs. Alabama: Alabama 95%
Florida vs. Mississippi State: MSU 93%
Florida vs. Auburn: Auburn 93%
Florida vs. Ole Miss: Ole Miss 93%

Combine that all together, and you get the following odds for winning the SEC:

1. Alabama 39.9%

2. Mississippi State 33.1%

3. Georgia 9.6%

4. Auburn 8.1%

5. Ole Miss 4.2%

6. Missouri 4.1%

7. Florida 1.1%

You've still got a chance, Gators.