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Study Hall: Florida State 34, Virginia 20

Jeff Gammons

Florida State 34, Virginia 20

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics Florida State Virginia Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 74 67
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 100.0%
Avg Starting FP 35.1 33.6 29.9
Possessions 15 14
Scoring Opportunities*
7 4
Points Per Opportunity 4.86 5.25 4.69
Leverage Rate** 70.3% 62.7% 68.2%
Close S&P*** 0.503 0.446 0.505
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Florida State Virginia
Total 24.1 19.1
Rushing 10.9 3.7
Passing 13.1 15.5
Success Rate (what's this?) Florida State Virginia Nat'l Avg
All (close) 44.6% 35.8% 41.9%
Rushing (close) 35.1% 35.7% 43.5%
Passing (close) 54.1% 35.9% 40.2%
Standard Downs 51.9% 35.7% 47.1%
Passing Downs 27.3% 36.0% 30.6%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Florida State Virginia Nat'l Avg
All (close) 0.73 0.80 0.85
Rushing (close) 0.84 0.37 0.73
Passing (close) 0.66 1.10 0.98
Standard Downs 0.69 0.47 0.77
Passing Downs 0.89 1.34 1.13
Line Stats Florida State Virginia Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 2.52 1.63 2.92
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 4.8% 10.5% 4.7%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 6.3% 10.0% 7.6%
Turnovers Florida State Virginia
Turnovers 3 3
Turnover Points (what's this?) 12.1 17.6
Turnover Margin +0
Exp. TO Margin Florida State +0.29
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) Virginia +0.29
TO Points Margin Florida State +5.5 points
Situational Florida State Virginia
Q1 S&P 0.429 0.557
Q2 S&P 0.607 0.323
Q3 S&P 0.521 0.469
Q4 S&P 0.426 0.389
1st Down S&P 0.513 0.423
2nd Down S&P 0.509 0.491
3rd Down S&P 0.464 0.504
Projected Scoring Margin: Florida State by 10.4
Actual Scoring Margin: Florida State by 14

Another sketchy start, more sketchy rushing, more first-half Winston interceptions, another comfortable mid-game surge, another easy, unimpressive win. Congrats on mastering this art, FSU.

This game was also a nice reminder of how crazy-young FSU's receiving corps is after Rashad Greene.

Passes to Greene: 13-for-16, 136 yards
Passes to others: 9-for-19, 125 yards (8-for-18 for 85 yards outside of a 40-yarder to Ermon Lane)

Even really good freshmen are hit-and-miss, and that's not exactly helping with Winston's INT total.