Texas A&M 41, Auburn 38
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|Basics||Auburn||Texas A&M||Nat'l Avg|
|Close Rate (non-garbage time)||100.0%|
|Avg Starting FP||29.6||24.4||29.9|
|Points Per Opportunity||4.22||4.86||4.69|
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
|EqPts (what's this?)||Auburn||Texas A&M|
|Success Rate (what's this?)||Auburn||Texas A&M||Nat'l Avg|
|IsoPPP (what's this?)||Auburn||Texas A&M||Nat'l Avg|
|Line Stats||Auburn||Texas A&M||Nat'l Avg|
|Line Yards/Carry (what's this?)||3.72||3.03||2.92|
|Std. Downs Sack Rt.||8.3%||5.3%||4.7%|
|Pass. Downs Sack Rt.||9.1%||0.0%||7.6%|
|Turnover Points (what's this?)||14.1||2.2|
|Turnover Margin||Texas A&M +2|
|Exp. TO Margin||Texas A&M +0.8|
|TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin)||Texas A&M +1.2|
|TO Points Margin||Texas A&M +11.9 points|
|1st Down S&P||0.572||0.512|
|2nd Down S&P||0.727||0.678|
|3rd Down S&P||0.571||0.491|
|Projected Scoring Margin: Texas A&M by 2.7|
|Actual Scoring Margin: Texas A&M by 3|
The numbers didn't think so; A&M had sunk all the way to 61st in the F/+ rankings, while Auburn had risen to first on the power of wins over LSU and Ole Miss and the fact that the MSU loss was based partially in turnovers. The Tigers were given a 98 percent chance of winning, and while that seems mighty high, realize that Auburn's advantage over A&M in the ratings was the same as Alabama's over Iowa State. That's how poorly the Aggies had performed since October 4. [...]
Basically, A&M's offense won the game in the first half, and Auburn's offense lost the game in the final three minutes. And only the latter could have been more unexpected than the former.
Obviously turnovers luck came into play here, with A&M recovering all four of the game's fumbles. That will swing just about any close game, but power to A&M for being close at all. This team was as listless as a team could be in the last two games ... but not on Saturday.