clock menu more-arrow no yes

Filed under:

Study Hall: Texas A&M 41, Auburn 38

Kevin C. Cox

Texas A&M 41, Auburn 38

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics Auburn Texas A&M Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 80 64
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 100.0%
Avg Starting FP 29.6 24.4 29.9
Possessions 12 12
Scoring Opportunities*
9 7
Points Per Opportunity 4.22 4.86 4.69
Leverage Rate** 78.8% 70.3% 68.2%
Close S&P*** 0.623 0.572 0.505
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Auburn Texas A&M
Total 38.8 29.6
Rushing 25.6 8.1
Passing 13.2 21.5
Success Rate (what's this?) Auburn Texas A&M Nat'l Avg
All (close) 56.3% 46.9% 41.9%
Rushing (close) 57.9% 38.2% 43.5%
Passing (close) 52.2% 56.7% 40.2%
Standard Downs 60.3% 53.3% 47.1%
Passing Downs 41.2% 31.6% 30.6%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Auburn Texas A&M Nat'l Avg
All (close) 0.86 0.99 0.85
Rushing (close) 0.78 0.62 0.73
Passing (close) 1.10 1.27 0.98
Standard Downs 0.76 0.93 0.77
Passing Downs 1.44 1.22 1.13
Line Stats Auburn Texas A&M Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 3.72 3.03 2.92
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 8.3% 5.3% 4.7%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 9.1% 0.0% 7.6%
Turnovers Auburn Texas A&M
Turnovers 3 1
Turnover Points (what's this?) 14.1 2.2
Turnover Margin Texas A&M +2
Exp. TO Margin Texas A&M +0.8
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) Texas A&M +1.2
TO Points Margin Texas A&M +11.9 points
Situational Auburn Texas A&M
Q1 S&P 0.725 0.660
Q2 S&P 0.379 0.863
Q3 S&P 0.672 0.487
Q4 S&P 0.784 0.375
1st Down S&P 0.572 0.512
2nd Down S&P 0.727 0.678
3rd Down S&P 0.571 0.491
Projected Scoring Margin: Texas A&M by 2.7
Actual Scoring Margin: Texas A&M by 3

I guess I already wrote quite a bit about this one.

The numbers didn't think so; A&M had sunk all the way to 61st in the F/+ rankings, while Auburn had risen to first on the power of wins over LSU and Ole Miss and the fact that the MSU loss was based partially in turnovers. The Tigers were given a 98 percent chance of winning, and while that seems mighty high, realize that Auburn's advantage over A&M in the ratings was the same as Alabama's over Iowa State. That's how poorly the Aggies had performed since October 4. [...]

Basically, A&M's offense won the game in the first half, and Auburn's offense lost the game in the final three minutes. And only the latter could have been more unexpected than the former.

Obviously turnovers luck came into play here, with A&M recovering all four of the game's fumbles. That will swing just about any close game, but power to A&M for being close at all. This team was as listless as a team could be in the last two games ... but not on Saturday.