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Oregon 51, Utah 27
Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.
| Basics | Oregon | Utah | Nat'l Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Plays | 79 | 68 | |
| Close Rate (non-garbage time) | 93.9% | ||
| Avg Starting FP | 46.5 | 30.9 | 29.9 |
| Possessions | 13 | 14 | |
| Scoring Opportunities* |
12 | 6 | |
| Points Per Opportunity | 3.67 | 4.50 | 4.69 |
| Leverage Rate** | 62.7% | 85.7% | 68.2% |
| Close S&P*** | 0.559 | 0.573 | 0.505 |
|
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40). ** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs) *** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP) |
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| EqPts (what's this?) | Oregon | Utah | |
| Total | 36.4 | 22.5 | |
| Rushing | 19.1 | 6.6 | |
| Passing | 17.3 | 15.9 | |
| Success Rate (what's this?) | Oregon | Utah | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 45.3% | 55.6% | 41.9% |
| Rushing (close) | 52.4% | 53.1% | 43.5% |
| Passing (close) | 36.4% | 58.1% | 40.2% |
| Standard Downs | 55.3% | 59.3% | 47.1% |
| Passing Downs | 28.6% | 33.3% | 30.6% |
| IsoPPP (what's this?) | Oregon | Utah | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 0.98 | 0.64 | 0.85 |
| Rushing (close) | 0.73 | 0.38 | 0.73 |
| Passing (close) | 1.44 | 0.89 | 0.98 |
| Standard Downs | 0.87 | 0.68 | 0.77 |
| Passing Downs | 1.35 | 0.23 | 1.13 |
| Line Stats | Oregon | Utah | Nat'l Avg |
| Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) | 3.76 | 3.09 | 2.92 |
| Std. Downs Sack Rt. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 4.7% |
| Pass. Downs Sack Rt. | 25.0% | 14.3% | 7.6% |
| Turnovers | Oregon | Utah |
|---|---|---|
| Turnovers | 1 | 4 |
| Turnover Points (what's this?) | 5.2 | 29.5 |
| Turnover Margin | Oregon +3 | |
| Exp. TO Margin | Utah +0.95 | |
| TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) | Oregon +3.95 | |
| TO Points Margin | Oregon +24.3 points | |
| Situational | Oregon | Utah |
| Q1 S&P | 0.479 | 0.656 |
| Q2 S&P | 0.678 | 0.469 |
| Q3 S&P | 0.435 | 0.572 |
| Q4 S&P | 0.740 | 0.589 |
| 1st Down S&P | 0.617 | 0.653 |
| 2nd Down S&P | 0.540 | 0.483 |
| 3rd Down S&P | 0.406 | 0.422 |
| Projected Scoring Margin: Oregon by 38.2 | ||
| Actual Scoring Margin: Oregon by 24 | ||
The idea behind turnover points is that not every turnover is created equal -- some are arm punts worth maybe a point or two in field position. Some are Kaelin Clay laying the ball down at the goal line and having Oregon take it 100 yards in the other direction. That was as costly as a turnover can be.
I assume Oregon still wins this game anyway -- Clay scores, and in theory it's 44-34 Oregon instead of 51-27 -- but Utah was moving the ball very, very efficiently, and Oregon didn't create as much with its scoring opportunities as you would like to see from a national title contender. Utah might have been able to hold onto a 14-0 lead for quite a while. That was a killer.