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Study Hall: Oregon 51, Utah 27

Russ Isabella-USA TODAY Sports

Oregon 51, Utah 27

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics Oregon Utah Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 79 68
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 93.9%
Avg Starting FP 46.5 30.9 29.9
Possessions 13 14
Scoring Opportunities*
12 6
Points Per Opportunity 3.67 4.50 4.69
Leverage Rate** 62.7% 85.7% 68.2%
Close S&P*** 0.559 0.573 0.505
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Oregon Utah
Total 36.4 22.5
Rushing 19.1 6.6
Passing 17.3 15.9
Success Rate (what's this?) Oregon Utah Nat'l Avg
All (close) 45.3% 55.6% 41.9%
Rushing (close) 52.4% 53.1% 43.5%
Passing (close) 36.4% 58.1% 40.2%
Standard Downs 55.3% 59.3% 47.1%
Passing Downs 28.6% 33.3% 30.6%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Oregon Utah Nat'l Avg
All (close) 0.98 0.64 0.85
Rushing (close) 0.73 0.38 0.73
Passing (close) 1.44 0.89 0.98
Standard Downs 0.87 0.68 0.77
Passing Downs 1.35 0.23 1.13
Line Stats Oregon Utah Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 3.76 3.09 2.92
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 0.0% 0.0% 4.7%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 25.0% 14.3% 7.6%
Turnovers Oregon Utah
Turnovers 1 4
Turnover Points (what's this?) 5.2 29.5
Turnover Margin Oregon +3
Exp. TO Margin Utah +0.95
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) Oregon +3.95
TO Points Margin Oregon +24.3 points
Situational Oregon Utah
Q1 S&P 0.479 0.656
Q2 S&P 0.678 0.469
Q3 S&P 0.435 0.572
Q4 S&P 0.740 0.589
1st Down S&P 0.617 0.653
2nd Down S&P 0.540 0.483
3rd Down S&P 0.406 0.422
Projected Scoring Margin: Oregon by 38.2
Actual Scoring Margin: Oregon by 24

The idea behind turnover points is that not every turnover is created equal -- some are arm punts worth maybe a point or two in field position. Some are Kaelin Clay laying the ball down at the goal line and having Oregon take it 100 yards in the other direction. That was as costly as a turnover can be.

I assume Oregon still wins this game anyway -- Clay scores, and in theory it's 44-34 Oregon instead of 51-27 -- but Utah was moving the ball very, very efficiently, and Oregon didn't create as much with its scoring opportunities as you would like to see from a national title contender. Utah might have been able to hold onto a 14-0 lead for quite a while. That was a killer.