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Ohio State 49, Michigan State 37
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| Basics | Michigan State | Ohio State | Nat'l Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Plays | 79 | 67 | |
| Close Rate (non-garbage time) | 88.4% | ||
| Avg Starting FP | 29.5 | 30.4 | 29.9 |
| Possessions | 13 | 10 | |
| Scoring Opportunities* |
7 | 10 | |
| Points Per Opportunity | 5.43 | 4.90 | 4.69 |
| Leverage Rate** | 64.5% | 82.1% | 68.2% |
| Close S&P*** | 0.527 | 0.689 | 0.505 |
|
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40). ** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs) *** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP) |
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| EqPts (what's this?) | Michigan State | Ohio State | |
| Total | 34.5 | 42.3 | |
| Rushing | 13.3 | 22.5 | |
| Passing | 21.2 | 19.8 | |
| Success Rate (what's this?) | Michigan State | Ohio State | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 45.2% | 59.7% | 41.9% |
| Rushing (close) | 54.8% | 64.1% | 43.5% |
| Passing (close) | 35.5% | 53.6% | 40.2% |
| Standard Downs | 52.5% | 60.0% | 47.1% |
| Passing Downs | 31.8% | 58.3% | 30.6% |
| IsoPPP (what's this?) | Michigan State | Ohio State | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 0.83 | 1.06 | 0.85 |
| Rushing (close) | 0.69 | 0.90 | 0.73 |
| Passing (close) | 1.04 | 1.32 | 0.98 |
| Standard Downs | 0.74 | 0.88 | 0.77 |
| Passing Downs | 1.10 | 1.87 | 1.13 |
| Line Stats | Michigan State | Ohio State | Nat'l Avg |
| Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) | 3.19 | 3.63 | 2.92 |
| Std. Downs Sack Rt. | 7.1% | 5.0% | 4.7% |
| Pass. Downs Sack Rt. | 0.0% | 12.5% | 7.6% |
| Turnovers | Michigan State | Ohio State |
|---|---|---|
| Turnovers | 0 | 2 |
| Turnover Points (what's this?) | 0.0 | 8.9 |
| Turnover Margin | Michigan State +2 | |
| Exp. TO Margin | Ohio State +0.81 | |
| TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) | Michigan State +2.81 | |
| TO Points Margin | Michigan State +8.9 points | |
| Situational | Michigan State | Ohio State |
| Q1 S&P | 0.710 | 0.570 |
| Q2 S&P | 0.498 | 0.905 |
| Q3 S&P | 0.444 | 0.674 |
| Q4 S&P | 0.715 | 0.681 |
| 1st Down S&P | 0.587 | 0.652 |
| 2nd Down S&P | 0.572 | 0.693 |
| 3rd Down S&P | 0.566 | 0.758 |
| Projected Scoring Margin: Michigan State +1.1 | ||
| Actual Scoring Margin: Ohio State by 12 | ||
A 64 percent rushing success rate and a 58 percent passing downs success rate are impressive against Eastern Michigan, much less Michigan State. The Spartans' own offense did just fine -- they created scoring opportunities on more than half their possessions, and they finished those opportunities well. And Ohio State even donated two turnovers. And it just didn't matter because MSU, one of the most consistently strong defenses in the country, couldn't get a stop.
Ten possessions, 10 scoring opportunities for the Buckeyes. Just imagine what might have happened had they actually converted all of those opportunities.