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Study Hall: Ohio State 49, Michigan State 37

Andrew Weber-USA TODAY Sports

Ohio State 49, Michigan State 37

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Basics Michigan State Ohio State Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 79 67
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 88.4%
Avg Starting FP 29.5 30.4 29.9
Possessions 13 10
Scoring Opportunities*
7 10
Points Per Opportunity 5.43 4.90 4.69
Leverage Rate** 64.5% 82.1% 68.2%
Close S&P*** 0.527 0.689 0.505
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Michigan State Ohio State
Total 34.5 42.3
Rushing 13.3 22.5
Passing 21.2 19.8
Success Rate (what's this?) Michigan State Ohio State Nat'l Avg
All (close) 45.2% 59.7% 41.9%
Rushing (close) 54.8% 64.1% 43.5%
Passing (close) 35.5% 53.6% 40.2%
Standard Downs 52.5% 60.0% 47.1%
Passing Downs 31.8% 58.3% 30.6%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Michigan State Ohio State Nat'l Avg
All (close) 0.83 1.06 0.85
Rushing (close) 0.69 0.90 0.73
Passing (close) 1.04 1.32 0.98
Standard Downs 0.74 0.88 0.77
Passing Downs 1.10 1.87 1.13
Line Stats Michigan State Ohio State Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 3.19 3.63 2.92
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 7.1% 5.0% 4.7%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 0.0% 12.5% 7.6%
Turnovers Michigan State Ohio State
Turnovers 0 2
Turnover Points (what's this?) 0.0 8.9
Turnover Margin Michigan State +2
Exp. TO Margin Ohio State +0.81
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) Michigan State +2.81
TO Points Margin Michigan State +8.9 points
Situational Michigan State Ohio State
Q1 S&P 0.710 0.570
Q2 S&P 0.498 0.905
Q3 S&P 0.444 0.674
Q4 S&P 0.715 0.681
1st Down S&P 0.587 0.652
2nd Down S&P 0.572 0.693
3rd Down S&P 0.566 0.758
Projected Scoring Margin: Michigan State +1.1
Actual Scoring Margin: Ohio State by 12

A 64 percent rushing success rate and a 58 percent passing downs success rate are impressive against Eastern Michigan, much less Michigan State. The Spartans' own offense did just fine -- they created scoring opportunities on more than half their possessions, and they finished those opportunities well. And Ohio State even donated two turnovers. And it just didn't matter because MSU, one of the most consistently strong defenses in the country, couldn't get a stop.

Ten possessions, 10 scoring opportunities for the Buckeyes. Just imagine what might have happened had they actually converted all of those opportunities.