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Study Hall: Michigan 10, Northwestern 9

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Caylor Arnold-USA TODAY Sports

Michigan 10, Northwestern 9

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics Michigan Northwestern Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 59 84
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 100.0%
Avg Starting FP 42.2 28.6 29.9
Possessions 15 14
Scoring Opportunities*
6 4
Points Per Opportunity 1.67 2.50 4.69
Leverage Rate** 71.2% 66.7% 68.2%
Close S&P*** 0.439 0.396 0.505
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Michigan Northwestern
Total 14.6 12.3
Rushing 8.6 2.6
Passing 5.9 9.7
Success Rate (what's this?) Michigan Northwestern Nat'l Avg
All (close) 39.0% 40.5% 41.9%
Rushing (close) 42.9% 20.7% 43.5%
Passing (close) 33.3% 50.9% 40.2%
Standard Downs 50.0% 48.2% 47.1%
Passing Downs 11.8% 25.0% 30.6%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Michigan Northwestern Nat'l Avg
All (close) 0.63 0.36 0.85
Rushing (close) 0.58 0.43 0.73
Passing (close) 0.74 0.35 0.98
Standard Downs 0.58 0.32 0.77
Passing Downs 1.20 0.53 1.13
Line Stats Michigan Northwestern Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 2.57 1.57 2.92
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 0.0% 6.3% 4.7%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 0.0% 17.4% 7.6%
Turnovers Michigan Northwestern
Turnovers 3 3
Turnover Points (what's this?) 17.1 12.0
Turnover Margin +0
Exp. TO Margin Northwestern +0.29
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) Michigan +0.29
TO Points Margin Northwestern +5.1 points
Situational Michigan Northwestern
Q1 S&P 0.526 0.332
Q2 S&P 0.376 0.344
Q3 S&P 0.465 0.000
Q4 S&P 0.445 0.572
1st Down S&P 0.515 0.375
2nd Down S&P 0.499 0.387
3rd Down S&P 0.217 0.468
Projected Scoring Margin: Northwestern by 2.8
Actual Scoring Margin: Michigan by 1

On five or six different occasions, I found myself stuck watching this game in horror before remembering that there were other, more aesthetically pleasing games on.

I mean ... hey, good for Michigan for making the plays to win another game. I was serious when I said that 2-10 or 3-9 were legitimately on the table a while back, and now the Wolverines are 5-5. That's not nearly good enough -- nor is a 39% success rate against the Northwestern defense (12% on passing downs) -- but it's better than it could have been. And the defense still seems to legitimately care.