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Michigan 10, Northwestern 9
Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.
| Basics | Michigan | Northwestern | Nat'l Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Plays | 59 | 84 | |
| Close Rate (non-garbage time) | 100.0% | ||
| Avg Starting FP | 42.2 | 28.6 | 29.9 |
| Possessions | 15 | 14 | |
| Scoring Opportunities* |
6 | 4 | |
| Points Per Opportunity | 1.67 | 2.50 | 4.69 |
| Leverage Rate** | 71.2% | 66.7% | 68.2% |
| Close S&P*** | 0.439 | 0.396 | 0.505 |
|
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40). ** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs) *** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP) |
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| EqPts (what's this?) | Michigan | Northwestern | |
| Total | 14.6 | 12.3 | |
| Rushing | 8.6 | 2.6 | |
| Passing | 5.9 | 9.7 | |
| Success Rate (what's this?) | Michigan | Northwestern | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 39.0% | 40.5% | 41.9% |
| Rushing (close) | 42.9% | 20.7% | 43.5% |
| Passing (close) | 33.3% | 50.9% | 40.2% |
| Standard Downs | 50.0% | 48.2% | 47.1% |
| Passing Downs | 11.8% | 25.0% | 30.6% |
| IsoPPP (what's this?) | Michigan | Northwestern | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 0.63 | 0.36 | 0.85 |
| Rushing (close) | 0.58 | 0.43 | 0.73 |
| Passing (close) | 0.74 | 0.35 | 0.98 |
| Standard Downs | 0.58 | 0.32 | 0.77 |
| Passing Downs | 1.20 | 0.53 | 1.13 |
| Line Stats | Michigan | Northwestern | Nat'l Avg |
| Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) | 2.57 | 1.57 | 2.92 |
| Std. Downs Sack Rt. | 0.0% | 6.3% | 4.7% |
| Pass. Downs Sack Rt. | 0.0% | 17.4% | 7.6% |
| Turnovers | Michigan | Northwestern |
|---|---|---|
| Turnovers | 3 | 3 |
| Turnover Points (what's this?) | 17.1 | 12.0 |
| Turnover Margin | +0 | |
| Exp. TO Margin | Northwestern +0.29 | |
| TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) | Michigan +0.29 | |
| TO Points Margin | Northwestern +5.1 points | |
| Situational | Michigan | Northwestern |
| Q1 S&P | 0.526 | 0.332 |
| Q2 S&P | 0.376 | 0.344 |
| Q3 S&P | 0.465 | 0.000 |
| Q4 S&P | 0.445 | 0.572 |
| 1st Down S&P | 0.515 | 0.375 |
| 2nd Down S&P | 0.499 | 0.387 |
| 3rd Down S&P | 0.217 | 0.468 |
| Projected Scoring Margin: Northwestern by 2.8 | ||
| Actual Scoring Margin: Michigan by 1 | ||
On five or six different occasions, I found myself stuck watching this game in horror before remembering that there were other, more aesthetically pleasing games on.
I mean ... hey, good for Michigan for making the plays to win another game. I was serious when I said that 2-10 or 3-9 were legitimately on the table a while back, and now the Wolverines are 5-5. That's not nearly good enough -- nor is a 39% success rate against the Northwestern defense (12% on passing downs) -- but it's better than it could have been. And the defense still seems to legitimately care.
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