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Study Hall: Louisville 38, Boston College 19

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Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports

Louisville 38, Boston College 19

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics Boston College Louisville Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 63 64
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 90.6%
Avg Starting FP 25.2 41.8 29.9
Possessions 13 13
Scoring Opportunities*
5 9
Points Per Opportunity 4.20 4.22 4.69
Leverage Rate** 70.4% 65.6% 68.2%
Close S&P*** 0.511 0.606 0.505
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Boston College Louisville
Total 22.8 34.3
Rushing 11.5 16.3
Passing 11.3 17.9
Success Rate (what's this?) Boston College Louisville Nat'l Avg
All (close) 38.9% 42.6% 41.9%
Rushing (close) 40.5% 38.9% 43.5%
Passing (close) 35.3% 48.0% 40.2%
Standard Downs 42.1% 42.5% 47.1%
Passing Downs 31.3% 42.9% 30.6%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Boston College Louisville Nat'l Avg
All (close) 1.00 1.33 0.85
Rushing (close) 0.69 1.18 0.73
Passing (close) 1.76 1.49 0.98
Standard Downs 1.01 1.14 0.77
Passing Downs 0.95 1.68 1.13
Line Stats Boston College Louisville Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 2.43 2.80 2.92
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 10.0% 7.7% 4.7%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 14.3% 0.0% 7.6%
Turnovers Boston College Louisville
Turnovers 4 1
Turnover Points (what's this?) 19.4 5.8
Turnover Margin Louisville +3
Exp. TO Margin Louisville +0.37
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) Louisville +2.63
TO Points Margin Louisville +13.6 points
Situational Boston College Louisville
Q1 S&P 0.548 0.560
Q2 S&P 0.521 0.682
Q3 S&P 0.622 0.494
Q4 S&P 0.472 0.708
1st Down S&P 0.534 0.520
2nd Down S&P 0.508 0.674
3rd Down S&P 0.427 0.624
Projected Scoring Margin: Louisville by 25.0
Actual Scoring Margin: Louisville by 19

A lot of Week 11 games were turned by big turnover point differences, and this was no different. The Cards earned the win outside of turnovers -- they outgained the Eagles by 91 yards (1.3 per play) and didn't throw four interceptions -- but turnovers certainly made this easier for UL.

And my goodness, Gerod Holliman is ridiculous. Three more picks? If only he'd held onto that fourth-quarter one against FSU, huh?