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Louisville 38, Boston College 19
Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.
| Basics | Boston College | Louisville | Nat'l Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Plays | 63 | 64 | |
| Close Rate (non-garbage time) | 90.6% | ||
| Avg Starting FP | 25.2 | 41.8 | 29.9 |
| Possessions | 13 | 13 | |
| Scoring Opportunities* |
5 | 9 | |
| Points Per Opportunity | 4.20 | 4.22 | 4.69 |
| Leverage Rate** | 70.4% | 65.6% | 68.2% |
| Close S&P*** | 0.511 | 0.606 | 0.505 |
|
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40). ** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs) *** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP) |
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| EqPts (what's this?) | Boston College | Louisville | |
| Total | 22.8 | 34.3 | |
| Rushing | 11.5 | 16.3 | |
| Passing | 11.3 | 17.9 | |
| Success Rate (what's this?) | Boston College | Louisville | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 38.9% | 42.6% | 41.9% |
| Rushing (close) | 40.5% | 38.9% | 43.5% |
| Passing (close) | 35.3% | 48.0% | 40.2% |
| Standard Downs | 42.1% | 42.5% | 47.1% |
| Passing Downs | 31.3% | 42.9% | 30.6% |
| IsoPPP (what's this?) | Boston College | Louisville | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 1.00 | 1.33 | 0.85 |
| Rushing (close) | 0.69 | 1.18 | 0.73 |
| Passing (close) | 1.76 | 1.49 | 0.98 |
| Standard Downs | 1.01 | 1.14 | 0.77 |
| Passing Downs | 0.95 | 1.68 | 1.13 |
| Line Stats | Boston College | Louisville | Nat'l Avg |
| Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) | 2.43 | 2.80 | 2.92 |
| Std. Downs Sack Rt. | 10.0% | 7.7% | 4.7% |
| Pass. Downs Sack Rt. | 14.3% | 0.0% | 7.6% |
| Turnovers | Boston College | Louisville |
|---|---|---|
| Turnovers | 4 | 1 |
| Turnover Points (what's this?) | 19.4 | 5.8 |
| Turnover Margin | Louisville +3 | |
| Exp. TO Margin | Louisville +0.37 | |
| TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) | Louisville +2.63 | |
| TO Points Margin | Louisville +13.6 points | |
| Situational | Boston College | Louisville |
| Q1 S&P | 0.548 | 0.560 |
| Q2 S&P | 0.521 | 0.682 |
| Q3 S&P | 0.622 | 0.494 |
| Q4 S&P | 0.472 | 0.708 |
| 1st Down S&P | 0.534 | 0.520 |
| 2nd Down S&P | 0.508 | 0.674 |
| 3rd Down S&P | 0.427 | 0.624 |
| Projected Scoring Margin: Louisville by 25.0 | ||
| Actual Scoring Margin: Louisville by 19 | ||
A lot of Week 11 games were turned by big turnover point differences, and this was no different. The Cards earned the win outside of turnovers -- they outgained the Eagles by 91 yards (1.3 per play) and didn't throw four interceptions -- but turnovers certainly made this easier for UL.
And my goodness, Gerod Holliman is ridiculous. Three more picks? If only he'd held onto that fourth-quarter one against FSU, huh?
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