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Study Hall: Boise State 60, New Mexico 49

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Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

Boise State 60, New Mexico 49

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics Boise State New Mexico Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 80 65
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 100.0%
Avg Starting FP 32.7 27.9 29.9
Possessions 14 14
Scoring Opportunities*
11 8
Points Per Opportunity 5.64 5.25 4.69
Leverage Rate** 67.5% 72.3% 68.2%
Close S&P*** 0.639 0.647 0.505
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Boise State New Mexico
Total 48.6 41.7
Rushing 22.4 36.6
Passing 26.2 5.1
Success Rate (what's this?) Boise State New Mexico Nat'l Avg
All (close) 48.8% 46.2% 41.9%
Rushing (close) 44.7% 46.9% 43.5%
Passing (close) 54.6% 43.8% 40.2%
Standard Downs 55.6% 55.3% 47.1%
Passing Downs 34.6% 22.2% 30.6%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Boise State New Mexico Nat'l Avg
All (close) 1.25 1.39 0.85
Rushing (close) 1.07 1.59 0.73
Passing (close) 1.45 0.72 0.98
Standard Downs 1.27 1.45 0.77
Passing Downs 1.17 0.99 1.13
Line Stats Boise State New Mexico Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 3.78 3.33 2.92
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 5.6% 0.0% 4.7%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 0.0% 0.0% 7.6%
Turnovers Boise State New Mexico
Turnovers 0 0
Turnover Points (what's this?) 0.0 0.0
Turnover Margin +0
Exp. TO Margin New Mexico +0.66
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) Boise State +0.66
TO Points Margin +0
Situational Boise State New Mexico
Q1 S&P 0.598 0.907
Q2 S&P 0.698 0.874
Q3 S&P 0.407 0.564
Q4 S&P 0.807 0.346
1st Down S&P 0.684 0.758
2nd Down S&P 0.647 0.497
3rd Down S&P 0.522 0.410
Projected Scoring Margin: Boise State by 6.9
Actual Scoring Margin: Boise State by 11

So. Many. Big. Plays. I just wanted to see this one laid out in a table.

From today's Numerical:

New Mexico averaged 9.6 yards per play against Boise State, 627 yards in 65 plays. And the Lobos lost.

UNM went up 42-28 late in the first half, the Lobos missed a field goal and turned the ball over on downs twice, and Boise State, which averaged 8.2 yards per play in its own right, scored on eight of its final nine possessions to win, 60-49.

Bob Davie's Lobos are up to 50th in Off. F/+ and have been pretty solid offensively for most of what is now a three-year run. And to be sure, his 10-24 record (3-6 in 2014) far surpasses that of his predecessor. In Mike Locksley's three-year tenure, UNM went just 3-33.

But while the offense has gained traction, the Lobos are now up to 116th in Def. F/+. That's both awful and their best ranking since 2010. Davie has not been able to build up the talent and depth on that side of the ball, and it was never more evident or costly than on Saturday night. And for a guy who was the hottest defensive assistant in the country 20 years ago, that has to be more than a little bit frustrating.

Lobos had it till the fourth quarter.