Boise State 60, New Mexico 49
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|Basics||Boise State||New Mexico||Nat'l Avg|
|Close Rate (non-garbage time)||100.0%|
|Avg Starting FP||32.7||27.9||29.9|
|Points Per Opportunity||5.64||5.25||4.69|
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
|EqPts (what's this?)||Boise State||New Mexico|
|Success Rate (what's this?)||Boise State||New Mexico||Nat'l Avg|
|IsoPPP (what's this?)||Boise State||New Mexico||Nat'l Avg|
|Line Stats||Boise State||New Mexico||Nat'l Avg|
|Line Yards/Carry (what's this?)||3.78||3.33||2.92|
|Std. Downs Sack Rt.||5.6%||0.0%||4.7%|
|Pass. Downs Sack Rt.||0.0%||0.0%||7.6%|
|Turnovers||Boise State||New Mexico|
|Turnover Points (what's this?)||0.0||0.0|
|Exp. TO Margin||New Mexico +0.66|
|TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin)||Boise State +0.66|
|TO Points Margin||+0|
|Situational||Boise State||New Mexico|
|1st Down S&P||0.684||0.758|
|2nd Down S&P||0.647||0.497|
|3rd Down S&P||0.522||0.410|
|Projected Scoring Margin: Boise State by 6.9|
|Actual Scoring Margin: Boise State by 11|
So. Many. Big. Plays. I just wanted to see this one laid out in a table.
New Mexico averaged 9.6 yards per play against Boise State, 627 yards in 65 plays. And the Lobos lost.
UNM went up 42-28 late in the first half, the Lobos missed a field goal and turned the ball over on downs twice, and Boise State, which averaged 8.2 yards per play in its own right, scored on eight of its final nine possessions to win, 60-49.
Bob Davie's Lobos are up to 50th in Off. F/+ and have been pretty solid offensively for most of what is now a three-year run. And to be sure, his 10-24 record (3-6 in 2014) far surpasses that of his predecessor. In Mike Locksley's three-year tenure, UNM went just 3-33.
But while the offense has gained traction, the Lobos are now up to 116th in Def. F/+. That's both awful and their best ranking since 2010. Davie has not been able to build up the talent and depth on that side of the ball, and it was never more evident or costly than on Saturday night. And for a guy who was the hottest defensive assistant in the country 20 years ago, that has to be more than a little bit frustrating.
Lobos had it till the fourth quarter.