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Arizona State 55, Notre Dame 31
Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.
| Basics | Arizona State | Notre Dame | Nat'l Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Plays | 73 | 79 | |
| Close Rate (non-garbage time) | 50.0% | ||
| Avg Starting FP | 33.1 | 28.8 | 29.9 |
| Possessions | 15 | 17 | |
| Scoring Opportunities* |
7 | 7 | |
| Points Per Opportunity | 5.86 | 4.43 | 4.69 |
| Leverage Rate** | 89.5% | 65.8% | 68.2% |
| Close S&P*** | 0.678 | 0.502 | 0.505 |
|
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40). ** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs) *** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP) |
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| EqPts (what's this?) | Arizona State | Notre Dame | |
| Total | 27.8 | 32.4 | |
| Rushing | 11.0 | 8.4 | |
| Passing | 16.8 | 24.1 | |
| Success Rate (what's this?) | Arizona State | Notre Dame | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 63.2% | 42.1% | 41.9% |
| Rushing (close) | 64.0% | 38.5% | 43.5% |
| Passing (close) | 61.5% | 44.0% | 40.2% |
| Standard Downs | 61.8% | 44.0% | 47.1% |
| Passing Downs | 75.0% | 38.5% | 30.6% |
| IsoPPP (what's this?) | Arizona State | Notre Dame | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 0.86 | 0.83 | 0.85 |
| Rushing (close) | 0.47 | 0.51 | 0.73 |
| Passing (close) | 1.66 | 0.97 | 0.98 |
| Standard Downs | 0.81 | 0.98 | 0.77 |
| Passing Downs | 1.21 | 0.48 | 1.13 |
| Line Stats | Arizona State | Notre Dame | Nat'l Avg |
| Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) | 3.89 | 3.20 | 2.92 |
| Std. Downs Sack Rt. | 8.3% | 0.0% | 4.7% |
| Pass. Downs Sack Rt. | 0.0% | 30.0% | 7.6% |
| Turnovers | Arizona State | Notre Dame |
|---|---|---|
| Turnovers | 1 | 5 |
| Turnover Points (what's this?) | 4.6 | 34.3 |
| Turnover Margin | Arizona State +4 | |
| Exp. TO Margin | Arizona State +1.24 | |
| TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) | Arizona State +2.76 | |
| TO Points Margin | Arizona State +29.8 points | |
| Situational | Arizona State | Notre Dame |
| Q1 S&P | 0.679 | 0.418 |
| Q2 S&P | 0.517 | 0.517 |
| Q3 S&P | 0.312 | 0.582 |
| Q4 S&P | 0.619 | 0.627 |
| 1st Down S&P | 0.628 | 0.589 |
| 2nd Down S&P | 0.515 | 0.426 |
| 3rd Down S&P | 0.396 | 0.593 |
| Projected Scoring Margin: Arizona State by 25.1 | ||
| Actual Scoring Margin: Arizona State by 24 | ||
Using equivalent points as our guide, Notre Dame's five turnovers against Arizona State were worth about 34.3 points of field position. The Irish outgained the Sun Devils by a 487-412 margin (yards per play: ND 6.2, ASU 5.6), but Everett Golson couldn't get out of his own way. His first-quarter fumble set ASU up at Notre Dame's 13, then an interception set ASU up at the 23. Then he threw a pick six.
In the second half, Golson threw an interception from ASU's 7, then capped the performance with another pick six. The turnovers both helped ASU burst out to a huge lead, then prevented an increasingly hot Notre Dame offense from catching all the way up, and the Sun Devils ended up pulling away for a 55-31 win. Golson has been an incredible asset for Notre Dame's offense this year and is the primary reason the Irish are 7-2 despite turnover in personnel (both expected and unexpected). But Saturday was not his brightest day.
Turnovers were certainly the biggest story in this game, but the second-biggest had to be ASU's ability to run efficiently and run efficiently and run efficiently. It allowed a rusty Taylor Kelly to ease his way into the game, and after a bit of a slow start (3-for-6 for 24 yards), Kelly did just fine (14-for-22, 200 yards).
There are so many new pieces on this ASU squad, but things are just working. The offense is 14th in Off. F/+, and the incredibly new defense is 27th in Def. F/+, and while I don't think this is a true national title contender by any means, this is a better team than we could have expected. Todd Graham's doing a hell of a job in Tempe.