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Study Hall: Arizona State 55, Notre Dame 31

Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Arizona State 55, Notre Dame 31

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics Arizona State Notre Dame Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 73 79
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 50.0%
Avg Starting FP 33.1 28.8 29.9
Possessions 15 17
Scoring Opportunities*
7 7
Points Per Opportunity 5.86 4.43 4.69
Leverage Rate** 89.5% 65.8% 68.2%
Close S&P*** 0.678 0.502 0.505
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Arizona State Notre Dame
Total 27.8 32.4
Rushing 11.0 8.4
Passing 16.8 24.1
Success Rate (what's this?) Arizona State Notre Dame Nat'l Avg
All (close) 63.2% 42.1% 41.9%
Rushing (close) 64.0% 38.5% 43.5%
Passing (close) 61.5% 44.0% 40.2%
Standard Downs 61.8% 44.0% 47.1%
Passing Downs 75.0% 38.5% 30.6%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Arizona State Notre Dame Nat'l Avg
All (close) 0.86 0.83 0.85
Rushing (close) 0.47 0.51 0.73
Passing (close) 1.66 0.97 0.98
Standard Downs 0.81 0.98 0.77
Passing Downs 1.21 0.48 1.13
Line Stats Arizona State Notre Dame Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 3.89 3.20 2.92
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 8.3% 0.0% 4.7%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 0.0% 30.0% 7.6%
Turnovers Arizona State Notre Dame
Turnovers 1 5
Turnover Points (what's this?) 4.6 34.3
Turnover Margin Arizona State +4
Exp. TO Margin Arizona State +1.24
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) Arizona State +2.76
TO Points Margin Arizona State +29.8 points
Situational Arizona State Notre Dame
Q1 S&P 0.679 0.418
Q2 S&P 0.517 0.517
Q3 S&P 0.312 0.582
Q4 S&P 0.619 0.627
1st Down S&P 0.628 0.589
2nd Down S&P 0.515 0.426
3rd Down S&P 0.396 0.593
Projected Scoring Margin: Arizona State by 25.1
Actual Scoring Margin: Arizona State by 24

From today's Numerical:

Using equivalent points as our guide, Notre Dame's five turnovers against Arizona State were worth about 34.3 points of field position. The Irish outgained the Sun Devils by a 487-412 margin (yards per play: ND 6.2, ASU 5.6), but Everett Golson couldn't get out of his own way. His first-quarter fumble set ASU up at Notre Dame's 13, then an interception set ASU up at the 23. Then he threw a pick six.

In the second half, Golson threw an interception from ASU's 7, then capped the performance with another pick six. The turnovers both helped ASU burst out to a huge lead, then prevented an increasingly hot Notre Dame offense from catching all the way up, and the Sun Devils ended up pulling away for a 55-31 win. Golson has been an incredible asset for Notre Dame's offense this year and is the primary reason the Irish are 7-2 despite turnover in personnel (both expected and unexpected). But Saturday was not his brightest day.

Turnovers were certainly the biggest story in this game, but the second-biggest had to be ASU's ability to run efficiently and run efficiently and run efficiently. It allowed a rusty Taylor Kelly to ease his way into the game, and after a bit of a slow start (3-for-6 for 24 yards), Kelly did just fine (14-for-22, 200 yards).

There are so many new pieces on this ASU squad, but things are just working. The offense is 14th in Off. F/+, and the incredibly new defense is 27th in Def. F/+, and while I don't think this is a true national title contender by any means, this is a better team than we could have expected. Todd Graham's doing a hell of a job in Tempe.