Arizona State 55, Notre Dame 31
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|Basics||Arizona State||Notre Dame||Nat'l Avg|
|Close Rate (non-garbage time)||50.0%|
|Avg Starting FP||33.1||28.8||29.9|
|Points Per Opportunity||5.86||4.43||4.69|
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
|EqPts (what's this?)||Arizona State||Notre Dame|
|Success Rate (what's this?)||Arizona State||Notre Dame||Nat'l Avg|
|IsoPPP (what's this?)||Arizona State||Notre Dame||Nat'l Avg|
|Line Stats||Arizona State||Notre Dame||Nat'l Avg|
|Line Yards/Carry (what's this?)||3.89||3.20||2.92|
|Std. Downs Sack Rt.||8.3%||0.0%||4.7%|
|Pass. Downs Sack Rt.||0.0%||30.0%||7.6%|
|Turnovers||Arizona State||Notre Dame|
|Turnover Points (what's this?)||4.6||34.3|
|Turnover Margin||Arizona State +4|
|Exp. TO Margin||Arizona State +1.24|
|TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin)||Arizona State +2.76|
|TO Points Margin||Arizona State +29.8 points|
|Situational||Arizona State||Notre Dame|
|1st Down S&P||0.628||0.589|
|2nd Down S&P||0.515||0.426|
|3rd Down S&P||0.396||0.593|
|Projected Scoring Margin: Arizona State by 25.1|
|Actual Scoring Margin: Arizona State by 24|
Using equivalent points as our guide, Notre Dame's five turnovers against Arizona State were worth about 34.3 points of field position. The Irish outgained the Sun Devils by a 487-412 margin (yards per play: ND 6.2, ASU 5.6), but Everett Golson couldn't get out of his own way. His first-quarter fumble set ASU up at Notre Dame's 13, then an interception set ASU up at the 23. Then he threw a pick six.
In the second half, Golson threw an interception from ASU's 7, then capped the performance with another pick six. The turnovers both helped ASU burst out to a huge lead, then prevented an increasingly hot Notre Dame offense from catching all the way up, and the Sun Devils ended up pulling away for a 55-31 win. Golson has been an incredible asset for Notre Dame's offense this year and is the primary reason the Irish are 7-2 despite turnover in personnel (both expected and unexpected). But Saturday was not his brightest day.
Turnovers were certainly the biggest story in this game, but the second-biggest had to be ASU's ability to run efficiently and run efficiently and run efficiently. It allowed a rusty Taylor Kelly to ease his way into the game, and after a bit of a slow start (3-for-6 for 24 yards), Kelly did just fine (14-for-22, 200 yards).
There are so many new pieces on this ASU squad, but things are just working. The offense is 14th in Off. F/+, and the incredibly new defense is 27th in Def. F/+, and while I don't think this is a true national title contender by any means, this is a better team than we could have expected. Todd Graham's doing a hell of a job in Tempe.