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Study Hall: TCU 41, Kansas State 20

Cooper Neill

TCU 41, Kansas State 20

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Basics Kansas State TCU Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 59 82
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 75.2%
Avg Starting FP 23.8 26.9 29.9
Possessions 13 14
Scoring Opportunities*
4 7
Points Per Opportunity 5.25 5.86 4.69
Leverage Rate** 62.8% 77.8% 68.2%
Close S&P*** 0.455 0.609 0.505
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Kansas State TCU
Total 23.1 35.6
Rushing 3.4 22.3
Passing 19.7 13.3
Success Rate (what's this?) Kansas State TCU Nat'l Avg
All (close) 34.9% 54.0% 41.9%
Rushing (close) 38.5% 50.0% 43.5%
Passing (close) 33.3% 59.3% 40.2%
Standard Downs 40.7% 55.1% 47.1%
Passing Downs 25.0% 50.0% 30.6%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Kansas State TCU Nat'l Avg
All (close) 0.88 0.89 0.85
Rushing (close) 0.23 1.03 0.73
Passing (close) 1.21 0.73 0.98
Standard Downs 0.48 0.97 0.77
Passing Downs 1.99 0.55 1.13
Line Stats Kansas State TCU Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 1.48 4.18 2.92
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 0.0% 0.0% 4.7%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 6.7% 0.0% 7.6%
Turnovers Kansas State TCU
Turnovers 1 0
Turnover Points (what's this?) 6.2 0.0
Turnover Margin TCU +1
Exp. TO Margin TCU +0.22
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) TCU +0.78
TO Points Margin TCU +6.2 points
Situational Kansas State TCU
Q1 S&P 0.770 0.731
Q2 S&P 0.348 0.396
Q3 S&P 0.501 0.721
Q4 S&P 0.648 0.501
1st Down S&P 0.586 0.634
2nd Down S&P 0.330 0.584
3rd Down S&P 0.579 0.472
Projected Scoring Margin: TCU by 18.7
Actual Scoring Margin: TCU by 21

I was curious about TCU's Aaron Green heading into this game. His season averages were better than starter B.J. Catalon (who was out with injury), but sometimes a backup's averages are better because of the circumstances in which he is used.

I would say Green passed his "What does he look like as the No. 1 guy" test, huh? 18 carries for 171 yards ain't bad.

This game was completely about efficiency. Both teams produced similarly-sized big plays -- TCU on the ground, KSU in the air (Tyler Lockett and Curry Sexton: 15 catches, 310 yards). But TCU was about one-third more successful on standard downs and twice as successful on passing downs, and needless to say, that adds up.

TCU is such a damn good football team. The injuries and the near-miss at WVU sent me off the scent a bit, but damn.