TCU 41, Kansas State 20
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|Basics||Kansas State||TCU||Nat'l Avg|
|Close Rate (non-garbage time)||75.2%|
|Avg Starting FP||23.8||26.9||29.9|
|Points Per Opportunity||5.25||5.86||4.69|
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
|EqPts (what's this?)||Kansas State||TCU|
|Success Rate (what's this?)||Kansas State||TCU||Nat'l Avg|
|IsoPPP (what's this?)||Kansas State||TCU||Nat'l Avg|
|Line Stats||Kansas State||TCU||Nat'l Avg|
|Line Yards/Carry (what's this?)||1.48||4.18||2.92|
|Std. Downs Sack Rt.||0.0%||0.0%||4.7%|
|Pass. Downs Sack Rt.||6.7%||0.0%||7.6%|
|Turnover Points (what's this?)||6.2||0.0|
|Turnover Margin||TCU +1|
|Exp. TO Margin||TCU +0.22|
|TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin)||TCU +0.78|
|TO Points Margin||TCU +6.2 points|
|1st Down S&P||0.586||0.634|
|2nd Down S&P||0.330||0.584|
|3rd Down S&P||0.579||0.472|
|Projected Scoring Margin: TCU by 18.7|
|Actual Scoring Margin: TCU by 21|
I was curious about TCU's Aaron Green heading into this game. His season averages were better than starter B.J. Catalon (who was out with injury), but sometimes a backup's averages are better because of the circumstances in which he is used.
I would say Green passed his "What does he look like as the No. 1 guy" test, huh? 18 carries for 171 yards ain't bad.
This game was completely about efficiency. Both teams produced similarly-sized big plays -- TCU on the ground, KSU in the air (Tyler Lockett and Curry Sexton: 15 catches, 310 yards). But TCU was about one-third more successful on standard downs and twice as successful on passing downs, and needless to say, that adds up.
TCU is such a damn good football team. The injuries and the near-miss at WVU sent me off the scent a bit, but damn.