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TCU 41, Kansas State 20
Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.
| Basics | Kansas State | TCU | Nat'l Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Plays | 59 | 82 | |
| Close Rate (non-garbage time) | 75.2% | ||
| Avg Starting FP | 23.8 | 26.9 | 29.9 |
| Possessions | 13 | 14 | |
| Scoring Opportunities* |
4 | 7 | |
| Points Per Opportunity | 5.25 | 5.86 | 4.69 |
| Leverage Rate** | 62.8% | 77.8% | 68.2% |
| Close S&P*** | 0.455 | 0.609 | 0.505 |
|
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40). ** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs) *** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP) |
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| EqPts (what's this?) | Kansas State | TCU | |
| Total | 23.1 | 35.6 | |
| Rushing | 3.4 | 22.3 | |
| Passing | 19.7 | 13.3 | |
| Success Rate (what's this?) | Kansas State | TCU | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 34.9% | 54.0% | 41.9% |
| Rushing (close) | 38.5% | 50.0% | 43.5% |
| Passing (close) | 33.3% | 59.3% | 40.2% |
| Standard Downs | 40.7% | 55.1% | 47.1% |
| Passing Downs | 25.0% | 50.0% | 30.6% |
| IsoPPP (what's this?) | Kansas State | TCU | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 0.88 | 0.89 | 0.85 |
| Rushing (close) | 0.23 | 1.03 | 0.73 |
| Passing (close) | 1.21 | 0.73 | 0.98 |
| Standard Downs | 0.48 | 0.97 | 0.77 |
| Passing Downs | 1.99 | 0.55 | 1.13 |
| Line Stats | Kansas State | TCU | Nat'l Avg |
| Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) | 1.48 | 4.18 | 2.92 |
| Std. Downs Sack Rt. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 4.7% |
| Pass. Downs Sack Rt. | 6.7% | 0.0% | 7.6% |
| Turnovers | Kansas State | TCU |
|---|---|---|
| Turnovers | 1 | 0 |
| Turnover Points (what's this?) | 6.2 | 0.0 |
| Turnover Margin | TCU +1 | |
| Exp. TO Margin | TCU +0.22 | |
| TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) | TCU +0.78 | |
| TO Points Margin | TCU +6.2 points | |
| Situational | Kansas State | TCU |
| Q1 S&P | 0.770 | 0.731 |
| Q2 S&P | 0.348 | 0.396 |
| Q3 S&P | 0.501 | 0.721 |
| Q4 S&P | 0.648 | 0.501 |
| 1st Down S&P | 0.586 | 0.634 |
| 2nd Down S&P | 0.330 | 0.584 |
| 3rd Down S&P | 0.579 | 0.472 |
| Projected Scoring Margin: TCU by 18.7 | ||
| Actual Scoring Margin: TCU by 21 | ||
I was curious about TCU's Aaron Green heading into this game. His season averages were better than starter B.J. Catalon (who was out with injury), but sometimes a backup's averages are better because of the circumstances in which he is used.
I would say Green passed his "What does he look like as the No. 1 guy" test, huh? 18 carries for 171 yards ain't bad.
This game was completely about efficiency. Both teams produced similarly-sized big plays -- TCU on the ground, KSU in the air (Tyler Lockett and Curry Sexton: 15 catches, 310 yards). But TCU was about one-third more successful on standard downs and twice as successful on passing downs, and needless to say, that adds up.
TCU is such a damn good football team. The injuries and the near-miss at WVU sent me off the scent a bit, but damn.