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Study Hall: Georgia Tech 56, N.C. State 23

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Grant Halverson

Georgia Tech 56, NC State 23

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics Georgia Tech NC State Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 72 63
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 63.0%
Avg Starting FP 31.6 27.0 29.9
Possessions 8 11
Scoring Opportunities*
8 4
Points Per Opportunity 5.25 6.00 4.69
Leverage Rate** 91.2% 70.6% 68.2%
Close S&P*** 0.773 0.537 0.505
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Georgia Tech NC State
Total 40.9 24.4
Rushing 35.6 11.9
Passing 5.3 12.5
Success Rate (what's this?) Georgia Tech NC State Nat'l Avg
All (close) 73.5% 49.0% 41.9%
Rushing (close) 73.3% 63.6% 43.5%
Passing (close) 75.0% 37.9% 40.2%
Standard Downs 74.2% 52.8% 47.1%
Passing Downs 66.7% 40.0% 30.6%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Georgia Tech NC State Nat'l Avg
All (close) 0.93 0.72 0.85
Rushing (close) 0.97 0.80 0.73
Passing (close) 0.62 0.63 0.98
Standard Downs 0.91 0.50 0.77
Passing Downs 1.06 1.43 1.13
Line Stats Georgia Tech NC State Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 4.45 4.13 2.92
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 0.0% 0.0% 4.7%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 0.0% 10.0% 7.6%
Turnovers Georgia Tech NC State
Turnovers 2 3
Turnover Points (what's this?) 8.6 28.0
Turnover Margin Georgia Tech +1
Exp. TO Margin Georgia Tech +0.52
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) Georgia Tech +0.48
TO Points Margin Georgia Tech +19.4 points
Situational Georgia Tech NC State
Q1 S&P 0.807 0.608
Q2 S&P 0.692 0.464
Q3 S&P 0.653 N/A
Q4 S&P 0.759 0.836
1st Down S&P 0.630 0.486
2nd Down S&P 0.814 0.620
3rd Down S&P 0.777 0.502
Projected Scoring Margin: Georgia Tech by 35.9
Actual Scoring Margin: Georgia Tech by 33

I watched about five minutes of this one, and in those five minutes I saw Georgia Tech pick off a pass (that had gone off a shoe) at its goal line, return it almost all the way for a touchdown, then lose a fumble. Two plays later, Tech scored on a pick six. And then the Jackets scored on a fumble return touchdown.

If not for the return scores, this would still have been a game at halftime, but Tech was clearly the better team (see: N.C. State with zero successful Q3 plays), and ... have you noticed how good the Jackets are this year? Like, top-20 good. I didn't even know a 90-percent leverage rate was possible. The loss to Duke is killing them right now.