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Study Hall: Duke 27, Syracuse 10

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Brett Carlsen

Duke 27, Syracuse 10

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics Duke Syracuse Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 66 69
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 88.9%
Avg Starting FP 35.9 22.3 29.9
Possessions 14 15
Scoring Opportunities*
5 2
Points Per Opportunity 4.00 5.00 4.69
Leverage Rate** 59.6% 66.7% 68.2%
Close S&P*** 0.419 0.369 0.505
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Duke Syracuse
Total 16.4 11.6
Rushing 4.8 7.9
Passing 11.6 3.7
Success Rate (what's this?) Duke Syracuse Nat'l Avg
All (close) 24.6% 31.8% 41.9%
Rushing (close) 32.0% 34.3% 43.5%
Passing (close) 18.8% 28.6% 40.2%
Standard Downs 26.5% 31.0% 47.1%
Passing Downs 21.7% 33.3% 30.6%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Duke Syracuse Nat'l Avg
All (close) 1.11 0.57 0.85
Rushing (close) 0.51 0.66 0.73
Passing (close) 1.93 0.44 0.98
Standard Downs 0.55 0.60 0.77
Passing Downs 2.13 0.53 1.13
Line Stats Duke Syracuse Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 3.04 2.67 2.92
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 0.0% 5.9% 4.7%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 0.0% 0.0% 7.6%
Turnovers Duke Syracuse
Turnovers 1 2
Turnover Points (what's this?) 1.5 3.2
Turnover Margin Duke +1
Exp. TO Margin Syracuse +0.88
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) Duke +1.88
TO Points Margin Duke +1.6 points
Situational Duke Syracuse
Q1 S&P 0.360 0.372
Q2 S&P 0.498 0.385
Q3 S&P 0.206 0.460
Q4 S&P 0.527 0.181
1st Down S&P 0.283 0.332
2nd Down S&P 0.276 0.456
3rd Down S&P 0.611 0.288
Projected Scoring Margin: Duke by 6.4
Actual Scoring Margin: Duke by 17

Confusing game all around. Duke negated quite a bit of the havoc Syracuse's front seven normally creates, but a usually dormant 'Cuse secondary got hands on all sorts of passes. Duke's Anthony Boone completed 15 of 33 passes and had nine either broken up or intercepted. Duke was inefficient throwing the ball and completely ineffective running it (Shaq Powell and Josh Snead: 23 carries, 85 yards), and the Blue Devils had no efficiency whatsoever, which is a bit scary with Virginia Tech's defense still on the schedule.

But a punt return touchdown (which is one of the major reasons the projected and actual scoring margins are so different above) and a couple of late Orange turnovers (one on downs, one via interception) told the tale. Duke's 11-1 hopes are still very much alive.