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Duke 27, Syracuse 10
Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.
| Basics | Duke | Syracuse | Nat'l Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Plays | 66 | 69 | |
| Close Rate (non-garbage time) | 88.9% | ||
| Avg Starting FP | 35.9 | 22.3 | 29.9 |
| Possessions | 14 | 15 | |
| Scoring Opportunities* |
5 | 2 | |
| Points Per Opportunity | 4.00 | 5.00 | 4.69 |
| Leverage Rate** | 59.6% | 66.7% | 68.2% |
| Close S&P*** | 0.419 | 0.369 | 0.505 |
|
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40). ** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs) *** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP) |
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| EqPts (what's this?) | Duke | Syracuse | |
| Total | 16.4 | 11.6 | |
| Rushing | 4.8 | 7.9 | |
| Passing | 11.6 | 3.7 | |
| Success Rate (what's this?) | Duke | Syracuse | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 24.6% | 31.8% | 41.9% |
| Rushing (close) | 32.0% | 34.3% | 43.5% |
| Passing (close) | 18.8% | 28.6% | 40.2% |
| Standard Downs | 26.5% | 31.0% | 47.1% |
| Passing Downs | 21.7% | 33.3% | 30.6% |
| IsoPPP (what's this?) | Duke | Syracuse | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 1.11 | 0.57 | 0.85 |
| Rushing (close) | 0.51 | 0.66 | 0.73 |
| Passing (close) | 1.93 | 0.44 | 0.98 |
| Standard Downs | 0.55 | 0.60 | 0.77 |
| Passing Downs | 2.13 | 0.53 | 1.13 |
| Line Stats | Duke | Syracuse | Nat'l Avg |
| Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) | 3.04 | 2.67 | 2.92 |
| Std. Downs Sack Rt. | 0.0% | 5.9% | 4.7% |
| Pass. Downs Sack Rt. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 7.6% |
| Turnovers | Duke | Syracuse |
|---|---|---|
| Turnovers | 1 | 2 |
| Turnover Points (what's this?) | 1.5 | 3.2 |
| Turnover Margin | Duke +1 | |
| Exp. TO Margin | Syracuse +0.88 | |
| TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) | Duke +1.88 | |
| TO Points Margin | Duke +1.6 points | |
| Situational | Duke | Syracuse |
| Q1 S&P | 0.360 | 0.372 |
| Q2 S&P | 0.498 | 0.385 |
| Q3 S&P | 0.206 | 0.460 |
| Q4 S&P | 0.527 | 0.181 |
| 1st Down S&P | 0.283 | 0.332 |
| 2nd Down S&P | 0.276 | 0.456 |
| 3rd Down S&P | 0.611 | 0.288 |
| Projected Scoring Margin: Duke by 6.4 | ||
| Actual Scoring Margin: Duke by 17 | ||
Confusing game all around. Duke negated quite a bit of the havoc Syracuse's front seven normally creates, but a usually dormant 'Cuse secondary got hands on all sorts of passes. Duke's Anthony Boone completed 15 of 33 passes and had nine either broken up or intercepted. Duke was inefficient throwing the ball and completely ineffective running it (Shaq Powell and Josh Snead: 23 carries, 85 yards), and the Blue Devils had no efficiency whatsoever, which is a bit scary with Virginia Tech's defense still on the schedule.
But a punt return touchdown (which is one of the major reasons the projected and actual scoring margins are so different above) and a couple of late Orange turnovers (one on downs, one via interception) told the tale. Duke's 11-1 hopes are still very much alive.
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