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Study Hall: Baylor 48, Oklahoma 14

Brett Deering

Baylor 48, Oklahoma 14

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics Baylor Oklahoma Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 95 62
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 68.8%
Avg Starting FP 31.4 30.5 29.9
Possessions 13 12
Scoring Opportunities*
8 4
Points Per Opportunity 6.00 3.50 4.69
Leverage Rate** 55.8% 40.3% 68.2%
Close S&P*** 0.593 0.504 0.505
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Baylor Oklahoma
Total 36.6 19.8
Rushing 16.4 9.9
Passing 20.2 9.9
Success Rate (what's this?) Baylor Oklahoma Nat'l Avg
All (close) 55.4% 41.9% 41.9%
Rushing (close) 48.2% 41.7% 43.5%
Passing (close) 60.5% 42.1% 40.2%
Standard Downs 58.5% 44.0% 47.1%
Passing Downs 41.7% 38.9% 30.6%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Baylor Oklahoma Nat'l Avg
All (close) 0.75 0.85 0.85
Rushing (close) 0.74 0.55 0.73
Passing (close) 0.75 1.21 0.98
Standard Downs 0.77 0.38 0.77
Passing Downs 0.58 1.58 1.13
Line Stats Baylor Oklahoma Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 2.36 2.91 2.92
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 3.6% 0.0% 4.7%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 10.0% 0.0% 7.6%
Turnovers Baylor Oklahoma
Turnovers 0 1
Turnover Points (what's this?) 0.0 7.6
Turnover Margin Baylor +1
Exp. TO Margin Oklahoma +0.8
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) Baylor +1.8
TO Points Margin Baylor +7.6 points
Situational Baylor Oklahoma
Q1 S&P 0.403 0.581
Q2 S&P 0.605 0.440
Q3 S&P 0.670 0.486
Q4 S&P 0.516 0.215
1st Down S&P 0.582 0.416
2nd Down S&P 0.574 0.547
3rd Down S&P 0.449 0.535
Projected Scoring Margin: Baylor by 24.4
Actual Scoring Margin: Baylor by 34

When Bryce Hager picked off Trevor Knight and returned the ball to the OU 1, setting up what would quickly be a go-ahead touchdown in the second quarter, my first thought was, "Oh great, now Oklahoma's going to lose another game by the margin of a pick six, and I'm going to have to explain why the Sooners are still a top-10 team in F/+ with three losses."

Baylor then proceeded to knock OU out of the top 10. Thanks, Baylor!

We're all mocking Mike Stoops a bit for his "have your DBs give huge cushions to Baylor's WRs" strategy, and to be sure, it certainly didn't do what he hoped it would do. But I can't blame the thought process. OU actually did prevent any sort of massive damage from big plays (which was the goal), and Baylor's been inefficient enough recently that hoping to simply prolong drives and wait for Baylor to screw up made a good amount of sense.

Only, Baylor didn't screw up. Forcing Bryce Petty to beat you with consistency only works if doesn't. And now Baylor's 8-1 with no true road games remaining on the schedule, only home games against Oklahoma State and Kansas State and a Jerry World battle against Texas Tech. They're now throwing a major kink into TCU's plans to run the table, win the conference, and make the Playoff.