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Study Hall: Alabama 20, LSU 13

Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports

Alabama 20, LSU 13

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics Alabama LSU Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 75 82
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 100.0%
Avg Starting FP 29.1 34.6 29.9
Possessions 15 15
Scoring Opportunities*
5 4
Points Per Opportunity 4.00 3.25 4.69
Leverage Rate** 64.0% 67.1% 68.2%
Close S&P*** 0.426 0.353 0.505
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Alabama LSU
Total 19.3 12.1
Rushing 5.4 7.8
Passing 14.0 4.3
Success Rate (what's this?) Alabama LSU Nat'l Avg
All (close) 34.7% 32.9% 41.9%
Rushing (close) 42.9% 38.9% 43.5%
Passing (close) 29.8% 21.4% 40.2%
Standard Downs 39.6% 32.7% 47.1%
Passing Downs 25.9% 33.3% 30.6%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Alabama LSU Nat'l Avg
All (close) 0.74 0.45 0.85
Rushing (close) 0.45 0.37 0.73
Passing (close) 1.00 0.71 0.98
Standard Downs 0.61 0.31 0.77
Passing Downs 1.10 0.72 1.13
Line Stats Alabama LSU Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 3.00 2.91 2.92
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 4.2% 0.0% 4.7%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 0.0% 13.3% 7.6%
Turnovers Alabama LSU
Turnovers 1 1
Turnover Points (what's this?) 5.5 5.3
Turnover Margin +0
Exp. TO Margin LSU +0.44
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) Alabama +0.44
TO Points Margin LSU +0.2 points
Situational Alabama LSU
Q1 S&P 0.238 0.482
Q2 S&P 0.453 0.272
Q3 S&P 0.204 0.374
Q4 S&P 0.396 0.289
1st Down S&P 0.451 0.352
2nd Down S&P 0.415 0.290
3rd Down S&P 0.463 0.437
Projected Scoring Margin: Alabama by 7.0
Actual Scoring Margin: Alabama by 7

You probably didn't need stats to tell you this was a massively defense-heavy battle, huh? Because of the late T.J. Yeldon fumble* at the Alabama 6, LSU ended up creeping ahead in the field position battle, but the Tigers' biggest skills in this game were giving Alabama no hope of completing a pass downfield (for the first 59 minutes, anyway) and being able to squat on the ball offensively without actually going anywhere.

That LSU managed to twice hold the ball for seven minutes before punting is impressive in its own right, and it almost indirectly won the game -- it ate up large chunks of the second half and created a situation where they needed just one mistake from Alabama to take the lead (and they got that mistake in Yeldon's fumble). Still, Alabama actually moved the ball when it had to (and not a moment before), and that made the Tide the better team. Barely.

* Man oh man, I had a "Yeldon fumbling in the fourth quarter of a big game? Well I never..." tweet queued up and ready to go, but I noticed he was hurt right before I hit send. I felt guilty, and I didn't even send it.