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Study Hall: Michigan State 27, Nebraska 22

Gregory Shamus

Michigan State 27, Nebraska 22

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics Michigan State Nebraska Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 73 82
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 76.1%
Avg Starting FP 32.3 34.0 29.7
Possessions 18 18
Scoring Opportunities*
6 7
Points Per Opportunity 4.50 2.43 4.69
Leverage Rate** 54.8% 37.8% 68.4%
Close S&P*** 0.512 0.310 0.508
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Michigan State Nebraska
Total 24.9 19.2
Rushing 12.6 6.2
Passing 12.3 13.0
Success Rate (what's this?) Michigan State Nebraska Nat'l Avg
All (close) 35.6% 23.7% 42.2%
Rushing (close) 36.1% 17.4% 43.6%
Passing (close) 34.8% 27.8% 40.7%
Standard Downs 40.0% 25.8% 47.5%
Passing Downs 26.3% 21.4% 30.7%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Michigan State Nebraska Nat'l Avg
All (close) 1.14 0.60 0.85
Rushing (close) 0.93 0.45 0.73
Passing (close) 1.48 0.66 0.99
Standard Downs 1.26 0.40 0.77
Passing Downs 0.75 0.87 1.14
Line Stats Michigan State Nebraska Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 2.56 1.44 2.93
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 0.0% 0.0% 4.7%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 0.0% 21.7% 7.3%
Turnovers Michigan State Nebraska
Turnovers 3 4
Turnover Points (what's this?) 12.7 17.6
Turnover Margin Michigan State +1
Exp. TO Margin Nebraska +0.22
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) Michigan State +1.22
TO Points Margin Michigan State +4.9 points
Situational Michigan State Nebraska
Q1 S&P 0.495 0.352
Q2 S&P 0.576 0.191
Q3 S&P 0.524 0.340
Q4 S&P 0.322 0.691
1st Down S&P 0.610 0.415
2nd Down S&P 0.400 0.497
3rd Down S&P 0.384 0.267
Projected Scoring Margin: Michigan State by 10.6
Actual Scoring Margin: Michigan State by 5

Nebraska actually created more scoring opportunities despite minimal field position advantage and almost no efficiency whatsoever. Weird game.

And yeah, State, you might want to start playing fourth quarters.