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Study Hall: TCU 37, Oklahoma 33

Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports

TCU 37, Oklahoma 33

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics Oklahoma TCU Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 78 81
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 100.0%
Avg Starting FP 31.2 29.6 29.7
Possessions 16 14
Scoring Opportunities*
7 6
Points Per Opportunity 4.43 5.17 4.69
Leverage Rate** 61.5% 63.0% 68.4%
Close S&P*** 0.500 0.528 0.508
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Oklahoma TCU
Total 29.3 31.1
Rushing 13.6 11.4
Passing 15.7 19.7
Success Rate (what's this?) Oklahoma TCU Nat'l Avg
All (close) 37.2% 44.4% 42.2%
Rushing (close) 40.0% 45.0% 43.6%
Passing (close) 34.2% 43.9% 40.7%
Standard Downs 35.4% 49.0% 47.5%
Passing Downs 40.0% 36.7% 30.7%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Oklahoma TCU Nat'l Avg
All (close) 1.01 0.86 0.85
Rushing (close) 0.85 0.63 0.73
Passing (close) 1.21 1.09 0.99
Standard Downs 1.20 0.76 0.77
Passing Downs 0.74 1.10 1.14
Line Stats Oklahoma TCU Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 2.78 3.26 2.93
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 5.6% 4.8% 4.7%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 5.0% 5.0% 7.3%
Turnovers Oklahoma TCU
Turnovers 2 3
Turnover Points (what's this?) 14.2 11.3
Turnover Margin Oklahoma +1
Exp. TO Margin Oklahoma +1.53
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) TCU +0.53
TO Points Margin TCU +2.9 points
Situational Oklahoma TCU
Q1 S&P 0.885 0.525
Q2 S&P 0.550 0.597
Q3 S&P 0.450 0.579
Q4 S&P 0.301 0.182
1st Down S&P 0.529 0.443
2nd Down S&P 0.475 0.588
3rd Down S&P 0.450 0.591
Projected Scoring Margin: TCU by 4.7
Actual Scoring Margin: TCU by 4

This was a really, really even game. Basically, TCU had the efficiency edge (as it has all year), Oklahoma's big plays were a little bit bigger, Oklahoma was better on first down, TCU was better on second and third down, and Oklahoma's two turnovers were worth slightly more than TCU's three. And TCU might be a top-10 team again.