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College football projections: Week 10 F/+ picks

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Andy Lyons

Okay, yeah, so the pace projections haven't done much for the NEW method against the spread. Luckily OLD is still doing about what it always does. Add in a good Week 1, and OLD would be performing basically right in the 52-percent range it tends to occupy. Alas.

Week 9 2014 Season
"NEW" Method 18-27-4 (41%) 228-247-11 (48%)
"OLD" Method 23-22-4 (51%) 219-211-10 (51%)
When Both Methods Agree 16-20-3 (45%) 151-156-7 (49%)

Meanwhile, the win probabilities are still doing well and holding steady, but I'm a bit concerned about the tight games.

Week 9 2014 Season
Teams with 50-60% chance of winning 0-2 (0%) 21-25 (46%)
Teams with 60-70% chance of winning 0-4 (0%) 71-40 (59%)
Teams with 70-80% chance of winning 4-3 (57%) 102-28 (78%)
Teams with 80-90% chance of winning 16-2 (89%) 113-22 (84%)
Teams with 90-100% chance of winning 17-2 (89%) 95-5 (95%)

When the regular season ends, I'm going to look into home field advantages and make sure that I'm utilizing them in an appropriate way; I don't have any other immediate explanation for why more tightly-projected games are flipping to the (slight) underdog, but we'll see. Gotta have the time to look into it first.

There's good news, however. I hadn't looked at the Projection Tracker standings in a while; F/+ isn't involved in them for one reason or another, but it looks like F/+ would be in the top 10, both in overall win percentage and performance against the spread (using the OLD projections, anyway). And while I've only run the numbers for S&P+ and not F/+ in this regard, I'm pretty sure F/+ would be in the top 12 or so in the retrodiction numbers (using up-to-date ratings to back-project all the game, basically). I'm crafting a total S&P+ redesign for the offseason, but for now it's at least good to see that, while I want F/+ to do better, it's doing about as well as any other system is.

FBS vs. FBS

And here's your now-weekly disclaimer that the pace projections have made for complete silliness in the predicted scores. The projected scoring margin is the key piece there; the projected score is basically just there for entertainment value at this point. (And besides, you should apparently be using the OLD predictions anyway.)

Day Time (ET) TV Game Spread NEW Prediction
Winner's
chance of
winning
NEW Pick OLD Prediction OLD Pick Different?
Thu 7:30 PM ESPN Florida State at Louisville 4 Louisville by 2.3 (16.7 - 14.5) 59.1% Louisville Louisville by 1.8 Louisville
Thu 7:30 PM ESPNU Troy at Georgia Southern -25.5 Georgia Southern by 55.0 (60.8 - 5.9) 98.6% Georgia Southern Georgia Southern by 34.1 Georgia Southern
Fri 8:00 PM ESPN2 Cincinnati at Tulane 4 Cincinnati by 7.2 (30.7 - 23.5) 66.4% Cincinnati Cincinnati by 4.0 Cincinnati
Fri 8:00 PM ESPNU Tulsa at Memphis -24.5 Memphis by 53.0 (63.7 - 10.6) 96.9% Memphis Memphis by 27.1 Memphis
Day Time (ET) TV Game Spread NEW Prediction
Winner's
chance of
winning
NEW Pick OLD Prediction OLD Pick Different?
Sat 11:30 AM CBS Air Force at Army 2.5 Air Force by 38.6 (45.1 - 6.5) 93.1% Air Force Air Force by 20.9 Air Force
Sat 12:00 PM CBSSN Central Florida at Connecticut 10.5 Central Florida by 16.7 (18.6 - 1.9) 80.4% Central Florida Central Florida by 11.2 Central Florida
Sat 12:00 PM ESPNU Duke at Pittsburgh -3.5 Duke by 6.6 (30.4 - 23.8) 65.0% Duke Duke by 3.4 Duke
Sat 12:00 PM ESPN News East Carolina at Temple 7.5 East Carolina by 21.7 (43.1 - 21.4) 83.2% East Carolina East Carolina by 12.9 East Carolina
Sat 12:00 PM ESPN2 Maryland at Penn State -4 Penn State by 9.2 (15.3 - 6.0) 69.0% Penn State Penn State by 6.1 Penn State
Sat 12:00 PM BTN Northwestern at Iowa -4 Iowa by 5.2 (23.0 - 17.8) 62.9% Iowa Iowa by 3.3 Northwestern XXX
Sat 12:00 PM FS1 Oklahoma at Iowa State 16.5 Oklahoma by 43.9 (62.2 - 18.3) 96.7% Oklahoma Oklahoma by 25.9 Oklahoma
Sat 12:00 PM ASN Rice at Florida International 6 Florida International by 12.8 (32.9 - 20.1) 72.8% Florida International Florida International by 7.9 Florida International
Sat 12:00 PM SECN UL-Monroe at Texas A&M -33 Texas A&M by 40.8 (46.8 - 6.0) 95.1% Texas A&M Texas A&M by 24.2 UL-Monroe XXX
Sat 12:00 PM ESPN Wisconsin at Rutgers 11 Wisconsin by 15.9 (33.4 - 17.5) 77.5% Wisconsin Wisconsin by 9.5 Rutgers XXX
Sat 12:30 PM ESPN3 Boston College at Virginia Tech -3 Virginia Tech by 7.2 (14.9 - 7.7) 65.5% Virginia Tech Virginia Tech by 4.5 Virginia Tech
Sat 12:30 PM ESPN3 North Carolina at Miami-FL -14.5 Miami-FL by 36.6 (58.1 - 21.5) 94.3% Miami-FL Miami-FL by 23.2 Miami-FL
Sat 1:00 PM ESPN3 Central Michigan at Eastern Michigan 14 Central Michigan by 24.8 (25.5 - 0.7) 87.6% Central Michigan Central Michigan by 16.0 Central Michigan
Sat 1:00 PM Pac-12 Washington at Colorado 4 Washington by 2.9 (31.0 - 28.1) 59.4% Colorado Washington by 1.1 Colorado
Sat 2:30 PM ESPN3 Western Michigan at Miami-OH 6.5 Western Michigan by 14.8 (33.7 - 19.0) 76.1% Western Michigan Western Michigan by 8.8 Western Michigan
Sat 3:00 PM ESPN3 NC State at Syracuse -3.5 NC State by 5.1 (32.4 - 27.2) 63.5% NC State NC State by 2.8 NC State
Sat 3:00 PM FSN affiliates Western Kentucky at Louisiana Tech -7 Louisiana Tech by 9.3 (39.2 - 29.9) 68.5% Louisiana Tech Louisiana Tech by 5.8 Western Kentucky XXX
Day Time (ET) TV Game Spread NEW Prediction
Winner's
chance of
winning
NEW Pick OLD Prediction OLD Pick Different?
Sat 3:30 PM CBSSN BYU at Middle Tennessee 4 BYU by 21.8 (49.3 - 27.5) 80.4% BYU BYU by 11.2 BYU
Sat 3:30 PM ESPN3 Georgia State at Appalachian State -11.5 Georgia State by 15.8 (53.4 - 37.5) 76.1% Georgia State Georgia State by 8.8 Georgia State
Sat 3:30 PM BTN Indiana at Michigan -7 Michigan by 19.0 (39.0 - 20.0) 81.2% Michigan Michigan by 12.5 Michigan
Sat 3:30 PM CBS Florida vs. Georgia -12.5 Georgia by 36.2 (43.5 - 7.3) 95.2% Georgia Georgia by 24.3 Georgia
Sat 3:30 PM ABC/
ESPN2
Purdue at Nebraska -23.5 Nebraska by 44.3 (52.1 - 7.8) 96.5% Nebraska Nebraska by 26.4 Nebraska
Sat 3:30 PM ABC/
ESPN2
TCU at West Virginia 5.5 TCU by 11.5 (43.7 - 32.2) 68.9% TCU TCU by 5.2 West Virginia XXX
Sat 3:30 PM ESPNU Virginia at Georgia Tech -3.5 Georgia Tech by 16.3 (49.9 - 33.6) 76.5% Georgia Tech Georgia Tech by 9.8 Georgia Tech
Sat 4:00 PM ESPN News Houston at South Florida 9 Houston by 13.6 (20.5 - 6.9) 75.7% Houston Houston by 8.6 South Florida XXX
Sat 4:00 PM FS1 Kansas at Baylor -35.5 Baylor by 70.7 (56.0 - -14.6) 98.6% Baylor Baylor by 36.6 Baylor
Sat 4:00 PM SECN Kentucky at Missouri -6.5 Missouri by 21.7 (21.1 - -0.7) 84.4% Missouri Missouri by 14.6 Missouri
Sat 4:00 PM ESPN3 Texas State at New Mexico State 7.5 New Mexico State by 5.6 (34.8 - 29.3) 63.4% New Mexico State New Mexico State by 3.6 New Mexico State
Sat 4:30 PM Pac-12 USC at Washington State 6.5 USC by 31.6 (64.3 - 32.7) 88.6% USC USC by 16.8 USC
Sat 5:00 PM ESPN3 Arkansas State at Idaho 14.5 Arkansas State by 23.0 (58.6 - 35.6) 80.4% Arkansas State Arkansas State by 11.2 Idaho XXX
Sat 5:00 PM ESPN3 South Alabama at UL-Lafayette -6.5 UL-Lafayette by 3.2 (26.0 - 22.8) 60.4% South Alabama UL-Lafayette by 2.3 South Alabama
Sat 5:30 PM RSRM New Mexico at UNLV -1 New Mexico by 14.9 (45.8 - 30.9) 76.2% New Mexico New Mexico by 8.8 New Mexico
Day Time (ET) TV Game Spread NEW Prediction
Winner's
chance of
winning
NEW Pick OLD Prediction OLD Pick Different?
Sat 7:00 PM ESPN Auburn at Ole Miss -2 Ole Miss by 6.1 (26.2 - 20.2) 64.3% Ole Miss Ole Miss by 3.9 Ole Miss
Sat 7:00 PM CBSSN Colorado State at San Jose State 7 Colorado State by 36.4 (48.5 - 12.1) 93.3% Colorado State Colorado State by 21.1 Colorado State
Sat 7:00 PM ESPNU Old Dominion at Vanderbilt -7 Old Dominion by 5.6 (30.7 - 25.1) 65.3% Old Dominion Old Dominion by 3.6 Old Dominion
Sat 7:00 PM ASN UAB at Florida Atlantic UAB by 2.2 (34.5 - 32.2) 58.9% UAB UAB by 0.9 UAB
Sat 7:15 PM ESPN2 Arkansas at Mississippi State -10.5 Mississippi State by 36.2 (47.0 - 10.8) 92.1% Mississippi State Mississippi State by 20.7 Mississippi State
Sat 7:30 PM Fox Stanford at Oregon -8 Oregon by 19.3 (27.2 - 7.9) 81.6% Oregon Oregon by 12.8 Oregon
Sat 7:30 PM SECN Tennessee at South Carolina -7 Tennessee by 5.4 (42.3 - 36.9) 63.4% Tennessee Tennessee by 2.7 Tennessee
Sat 7:30 PM FS1 Texas at Texas Tech Texas Tech by 5.1 (33.6 - 28.4) 63.0% Texas Tech Texas Tech by 3.4 Texas Tech
Sat 8:00 PM ABC Illinois at Ohio State -28.5 Ohio State by 56.9 (64.0 - 7.1) 98.6% Ohio State Ohio State by 34.4 Ohio State
Sat 8:00 PM CBS Notre Dame at Navy 14 Notre Dame by 24.4 (48.0 - 23.6) 84.8% Notre Dame Notre Dame by 14.0 Navy XXX
Sat 8:00 PM ABC Oklahoma State at Kansas State -15 Kansas State by 29.4 (36.1 - 6.7) 89.3% Kansas State Kansas State by 18.2 Kansas State
Sat 8:00 PM FCSC Southern Miss at UTEP -7 UTEP by 19.8 (37.3 - 17.5) 80.9% UTEP UTEP by 12.4 UTEP
Sat 10:30 PM ESPN Arizona at UCLA -6.5 UCLA by 8.9 (48.2 - 39.3) 66.3% UCLA UCLA by 4.9 Arizona XXX
Sat 10:30 PM Pac-12 California at Oregon State -3 California by 5.5 (35.3 - 29.8) 63.6% California California by 2.8 California
Sat 10:30 PM CBSSN San Diego State at Nevada -3.5 Nevada by 21.6 (40.8 - 19.2) 82.3% Nevada Nevada by 13.2 Nevada
Sat 10:45 PM ESPN2 Wyoming at Fresno State -11.5 Fresno State by 13.8 (35.1 - 21.3) 74.7% Fresno State Fresno State by 8.9 Wyoming XXX
Sat 11:00 PM FS1 Utah at Arizona State -6 Arizona State by 17.1 (30.6 - 13.5) 76.6% Arizona State Arizona State by 9.9 Arizona State
Sat 11:00 PM MWC Video Utah State at Hawaii 3 Utah State by 14.9 (16.5 - 1.6) 75.2% Utah State Utah State by 8.3 Utah State