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Okay, yeah, so the pace projections haven't done much for the NEW method against the spread. Luckily OLD is still doing about what it always does. Add in a good Week 1, and OLD would be performing basically right in the 52-percent range it tends to occupy. Alas.
| Week 9 | 2014 Season | |
| "NEW" Method | 18-27-4 (41%) | 228-247-11 (48%) |
| "OLD" Method | 23-22-4 (51%) | 219-211-10 (51%) |
| When Both Methods Agree | 16-20-3 (45%) | 151-156-7 (49%) |
Meanwhile, the win probabilities are still doing well and holding steady, but I'm a bit concerned about the tight games.
| Week 9 | 2014 Season | |
| Teams with 50-60% chance of winning | 0-2 (0%) | 21-25 (46%) |
| Teams with 60-70% chance of winning | 0-4 (0%) | 71-40 (59%) |
| Teams with 70-80% chance of winning | 4-3 (57%) | 102-28 (78%) |
| Teams with 80-90% chance of winning | 16-2 (89%) | 113-22 (84%) |
| Teams with 90-100% chance of winning | 17-2 (89%) | 95-5 (95%) |
When the regular season ends, I'm going to look into home field advantages and make sure that I'm utilizing them in an appropriate way; I don't have any other immediate explanation for why more tightly-projected games are flipping to the (slight) underdog, but we'll see. Gotta have the time to look into it first.
There's good news, however. I hadn't looked at the Projection Tracker standings in a while; F/+ isn't involved in them for one reason or another, but it looks like F/+ would be in the top 10, both in overall win percentage and performance against the spread (using the OLD projections, anyway). And while I've only run the numbers for S&P+ and not F/+ in this regard, I'm pretty sure F/+ would be in the top 12 or so in the retrodiction numbers (using up-to-date ratings to back-project all the game, basically). I'm crafting a total S&P+ redesign for the offseason, but for now it's at least good to see that, while I want F/+ to do better, it's doing about as well as any other system is.
FBS vs. FBS
And here's your now-weekly disclaimer that the pace projections have made for complete silliness in the predicted scores. The projected scoring margin is the key piece there; the projected score is basically just there for entertainment value at this point. (And besides, you should apparently be using the OLD predictions anyway.)
| Day | Time (ET) | TV | Game | Spread | NEW Prediction |
Winner's
chance of
winning
| NEW Pick | OLD Prediction | OLD Pick | Different? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu | 7:30 PM | ESPN | Florida State at Louisville | 4 | Louisville by 2.3 (16.7 - 14.5) | 59.1% | Louisville | Louisville by 1.8 | Louisville | |
| Thu | 7:30 PM | ESPNU | Troy at Georgia Southern | -25.5 | Georgia Southern by 55.0 (60.8 - 5.9) | 98.6% | Georgia Southern | Georgia Southern by 34.1 | Georgia Southern | |
| Fri | 8:00 PM | ESPN2 | Cincinnati at Tulane | 4 | Cincinnati by 7.2 (30.7 - 23.5) | 66.4% | Cincinnati | Cincinnati by 4.0 | Cincinnati | |
| Fri | 8:00 PM | ESPNU | Tulsa at Memphis | -24.5 | Memphis by 53.0 (63.7 - 10.6) | 96.9% | Memphis | Memphis by 27.1 | Memphis | |
| Day | Time (ET) | TV | Game | Spread | NEW Prediction |
Winner's
chance of
winning
| NEW Pick | OLD Prediction | OLD Pick | Different? |
| Sat | 11:30 AM | CBS | Air Force at Army | 2.5 | Air Force by 38.6 (45.1 - 6.5) | 93.1% | Air Force | Air Force by 20.9 | Air Force | |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | CBSSN | Central Florida at Connecticut | 10.5 | Central Florida by 16.7 (18.6 - 1.9) | 80.4% | Central Florida | Central Florida by 11.2 | Central Florida | |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | ESPNU | Duke at Pittsburgh | -3.5 | Duke by 6.6 (30.4 - 23.8) | 65.0% | Duke | Duke by 3.4 | Duke | |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | ESPN News | East Carolina at Temple | 7.5 | East Carolina by 21.7 (43.1 - 21.4) | 83.2% | East Carolina | East Carolina by 12.9 | East Carolina | |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | ESPN2 | Maryland at Penn State | -4 | Penn State by 9.2 (15.3 - 6.0) | 69.0% | Penn State | Penn State by 6.1 | Penn State | |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | BTN | Northwestern at Iowa | -4 | Iowa by 5.2 (23.0 - 17.8) | 62.9% | Iowa | Iowa by 3.3 | Northwestern | XXX |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | FS1 | Oklahoma at Iowa State | 16.5 | Oklahoma by 43.9 (62.2 - 18.3) | 96.7% | Oklahoma | Oklahoma by 25.9 | Oklahoma | |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | ASN | Rice at Florida International | 6 | Florida International by 12.8 (32.9 - 20.1) | 72.8% | Florida International | Florida International by 7.9 | Florida International | |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | SECN | UL-Monroe at Texas A&M | -33 | Texas A&M by 40.8 (46.8 - 6.0) | 95.1% | Texas A&M | Texas A&M by 24.2 | UL-Monroe | XXX |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | ESPN | Wisconsin at Rutgers | 11 | Wisconsin by 15.9 (33.4 - 17.5) | 77.5% | Wisconsin | Wisconsin by 9.5 | Rutgers | XXX |
| Sat | 12:30 PM | ESPN3 | Boston College at Virginia Tech | -3 | Virginia Tech by 7.2 (14.9 - 7.7) | 65.5% | Virginia Tech | Virginia Tech by 4.5 | Virginia Tech | |
| Sat | 12:30 PM | ESPN3 | North Carolina at Miami-FL | -14.5 | Miami-FL by 36.6 (58.1 - 21.5) | 94.3% | Miami-FL | Miami-FL by 23.2 | Miami-FL | |
| Sat | 1:00 PM | ESPN3 | Central Michigan at Eastern Michigan | 14 | Central Michigan by 24.8 (25.5 - 0.7) | 87.6% | Central Michigan | Central Michigan by 16.0 | Central Michigan | |
| Sat | 1:00 PM | Pac-12 | Washington at Colorado | 4 | Washington by 2.9 (31.0 - 28.1) | 59.4% | Colorado | Washington by 1.1 | Colorado | |
| Sat | 2:30 PM | ESPN3 | Western Michigan at Miami-OH | 6.5 | Western Michigan by 14.8 (33.7 - 19.0) | 76.1% | Western Michigan | Western Michigan by 8.8 | Western Michigan | |
| Sat | 3:00 PM | ESPN3 | NC State at Syracuse | -3.5 | NC State by 5.1 (32.4 - 27.2) | 63.5% | NC State | NC State by 2.8 | NC State | |
| Sat | 3:00 PM | FSN affiliates | Western Kentucky at Louisiana Tech | -7 | Louisiana Tech by 9.3 (39.2 - 29.9) | 68.5% | Louisiana Tech | Louisiana Tech by 5.8 | Western Kentucky | XXX |
| Day | Time (ET) | TV | Game | Spread | NEW Prediction |
Winner's
chance of
winning
| NEW Pick | OLD Prediction | OLD Pick | Different? |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | CBSSN | BYU at Middle Tennessee | 4 | BYU by 21.8 (49.3 - 27.5) | 80.4% | BYU | BYU by 11.2 | BYU | |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | ESPN3 | Georgia State at Appalachian State | -11.5 | Georgia State by 15.8 (53.4 - 37.5) | 76.1% | Georgia State | Georgia State by 8.8 | Georgia State | |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | BTN | Indiana at Michigan | -7 | Michigan by 19.0 (39.0 - 20.0) | 81.2% | Michigan | Michigan by 12.5 | Michigan | |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | CBS | Florida vs. Georgia | -12.5 | Georgia by 36.2 (43.5 - 7.3) | 95.2% | Georgia | Georgia by 24.3 | Georgia | |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | ABC/ ESPN2 |
Purdue at Nebraska | -23.5 | Nebraska by 44.3 (52.1 - 7.8) | 96.5% | Nebraska | Nebraska by 26.4 | Nebraska | |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | ABC/ ESPN2 |
TCU at West Virginia | 5.5 | TCU by 11.5 (43.7 - 32.2) | 68.9% | TCU | TCU by 5.2 | West Virginia | XXX |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | ESPNU | Virginia at Georgia Tech | -3.5 | Georgia Tech by 16.3 (49.9 - 33.6) | 76.5% | Georgia Tech | Georgia Tech by 9.8 | Georgia Tech | |
| Sat | 4:00 PM | ESPN News | Houston at South Florida | 9 | Houston by 13.6 (20.5 - 6.9) | 75.7% | Houston | Houston by 8.6 | South Florida | XXX |
| Sat | 4:00 PM | FS1 | Kansas at Baylor | -35.5 | Baylor by 70.7 (56.0 - -14.6) | 98.6% | Baylor | Baylor by 36.6 | Baylor | |
| Sat | 4:00 PM | SECN | Kentucky at Missouri | -6.5 | Missouri by 21.7 (21.1 - -0.7) | 84.4% | Missouri | Missouri by 14.6 | Missouri | |
| Sat | 4:00 PM | ESPN3 | Texas State at New Mexico State | 7.5 | New Mexico State by 5.6 (34.8 - 29.3) | 63.4% | New Mexico State | New Mexico State by 3.6 | New Mexico State | |
| Sat | 4:30 PM | Pac-12 | USC at Washington State | 6.5 | USC by 31.6 (64.3 - 32.7) | 88.6% | USC | USC by 16.8 | USC | |
| Sat | 5:00 PM | ESPN3 | Arkansas State at Idaho | 14.5 | Arkansas State by 23.0 (58.6 - 35.6) | 80.4% | Arkansas State | Arkansas State by 11.2 | Idaho | XXX |
| Sat | 5:00 PM | ESPN3 | South Alabama at UL-Lafayette | -6.5 | UL-Lafayette by 3.2 (26.0 - 22.8) | 60.4% | South Alabama | UL-Lafayette by 2.3 | South Alabama | |
| Sat | 5:30 PM | RSRM | New Mexico at UNLV | -1 | New Mexico by 14.9 (45.8 - 30.9) | 76.2% | New Mexico | New Mexico by 8.8 | New Mexico | |
| Day | Time (ET) | TV | Game | Spread | NEW Prediction |
Winner's
chance of
winning
| NEW Pick | OLD Prediction | OLD Pick | Different? |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | ESPN | Auburn at Ole Miss | -2 | Ole Miss by 6.1 (26.2 - 20.2) | 64.3% | Ole Miss | Ole Miss by 3.9 | Ole Miss | |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | CBSSN | Colorado State at San Jose State | 7 | Colorado State by 36.4 (48.5 - 12.1) | 93.3% | Colorado State | Colorado State by 21.1 | Colorado State | |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | ESPNU | Old Dominion at Vanderbilt | -7 | Old Dominion by 5.6 (30.7 - 25.1) | 65.3% | Old Dominion | Old Dominion by 3.6 | Old Dominion | |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | ASN | UAB at Florida Atlantic | UAB by 2.2 (34.5 - 32.2) | 58.9% | UAB | UAB by 0.9 | UAB | ||
| Sat | 7:15 PM | ESPN2 | Arkansas at Mississippi State | -10.5 | Mississippi State by 36.2 (47.0 - 10.8) | 92.1% | Mississippi State | Mississippi State by 20.7 | Mississippi State | |
| Sat | 7:30 PM | Fox | Stanford at Oregon | -8 | Oregon by 19.3 (27.2 - 7.9) | 81.6% | Oregon | Oregon by 12.8 | Oregon | |
| Sat | 7:30 PM | SECN | Tennessee at South Carolina | -7 | Tennessee by 5.4 (42.3 - 36.9) | 63.4% | Tennessee | Tennessee by 2.7 | Tennessee | |
| Sat | 7:30 PM | FS1 | Texas at Texas Tech | Texas Tech by 5.1 (33.6 - 28.4) | 63.0% | Texas Tech | Texas Tech by 3.4 | Texas Tech | ||
| Sat | 8:00 PM | ABC | Illinois at Ohio State | -28.5 | Ohio State by 56.9 (64.0 - 7.1) | 98.6% | Ohio State | Ohio State by 34.4 | Ohio State | |
| Sat | 8:00 PM | CBS | Notre Dame at Navy | 14 | Notre Dame by 24.4 (48.0 - 23.6) | 84.8% | Notre Dame | Notre Dame by 14.0 | Navy | XXX |
| Sat | 8:00 PM | ABC | Oklahoma State at Kansas State | -15 | Kansas State by 29.4 (36.1 - 6.7) | 89.3% | Kansas State | Kansas State by 18.2 | Kansas State | |
| Sat | 8:00 PM | FCSC | Southern Miss at UTEP | -7 | UTEP by 19.8 (37.3 - 17.5) | 80.9% | UTEP | UTEP by 12.4 | UTEP | |
| Sat | 10:30 PM | ESPN | Arizona at UCLA | -6.5 | UCLA by 8.9 (48.2 - 39.3) | 66.3% | UCLA | UCLA by 4.9 | Arizona | XXX |
| Sat | 10:30 PM | Pac-12 | California at Oregon State | -3 | California by 5.5 (35.3 - 29.8) | 63.6% | California | California by 2.8 | California | |
| Sat | 10:30 PM | CBSSN | San Diego State at Nevada | -3.5 | Nevada by 21.6 (40.8 - 19.2) | 82.3% | Nevada | Nevada by 13.2 | Nevada | |
| Sat | 10:45 PM | ESPN2 | Wyoming at Fresno State | -11.5 | Fresno State by 13.8 (35.1 - 21.3) | 74.7% | Fresno State | Fresno State by 8.9 | Wyoming | XXX |
| Sat | 11:00 PM | FS1 | Utah at Arizona State | -6 | Arizona State by 17.1 (30.6 - 13.5) | 76.6% | Arizona State | Arizona State by 9.9 | Arizona State | |
| Sat | 11:00 PM | MWC Video | Utah State at Hawaii | 3 | Utah State by 14.9 (16.5 - 1.6) | 75.2% | Utah State | Utah State by 8.3 | Utah State |
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