Updated Pac-12 football projections through 9 weeks

Win projections

The story in the Pac-12 North is what it was last week: Oregon needs to lose twice for this to be a race. The Ducks need to get upset by Stanford, then get upset again.

Luckily, the South is anything but certain ... I think. There's a chance that Arizona State is in the process of seizing control of the race.

Odds of Pac-12 conference records

NORTH
Major contenders: Oregon
Minor contenders: none

Stanford is going to slow the pace way down and play really good defense, and that alone might give the Cardinal a chance to knock Oregon off (again). But again ... unless there's another upset, too ... this race is over.

SOUTH
Serious contenders: Arizona State
Minor contenders: Arizona, USC, UCLA

Four weeks ago, Arizona State was 57th in the F/+ rankings. Then the Sun Devils won at USC, thumped Stanford, and held off Washington in Seattle. Now they're 18th.

And this was with an injury to quarterback Taylor Kelly. I ... did not see this one coming.

Regardless, if they continue playing at a top-20 level, the division's theirs. Obviously a trip to Arizona is far from a slam dunk, but getting Utah at home this week is big. But if ASU slips up at all, any of four other teams (poor Colorado) could make things very interesting.

Slog Level Delta

Here are the odds of a division champion finishing with a particular record:

A 6-3 champion is still a possibility in both divisions, but not much of one.

All Projections

If Utah beats ASU -- and the Utes have already won at UCLA this season -- the South becomes a hot, delicious mess, especially if UCLA also beats Arizona.