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Updated Pac-12 football projections through 9 weeks

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This morning, I used F/+ projections to help figure out what to expect from the national title race. In this space, let's go back to the conference races.

Matt Kartozian-US PRESSWIRE

Win projections

The story in the Pac-12 North is what it was last week: Oregon needs to lose twice for this to be a race. The Ducks need to get upset by Stanford, then get upset again.

Luckily, the South is anything but certain ... I think. There's a chance that Arizona State is in the process of seizing control of the race.

Odds of Pac-12 conference records
North F/+ Ranking Proj. Conf. Wins Last Week (Change) With Week 10 win With Week 10 loss
Oregon (4-1, 7-1) 5 7.57 7.40 (+0.17) 7.76 6.76
Stanford (3-2, 5-3) 21 5.12 4.60 (+0.52) 5.93 4.93
California (2-4, 4-4) 45 2.98 3.23 (-0.26) 3.34 2.34
Washington (1-3, 5-3) 63 2.97 2.91 (+0.06) 3.38 2.38
Oregon State (1-3, 4-3) 65 2.49 2.73 (-0.24) 3.12 2.12
Washington State (1-4, 2-6) 70 2.06 2.34 (-0.28) 2.94 1.94
South F/+ Ranking Proj. Conf. Wins Last Week (Change) With Week 10 win With Week 10 loss
Arizona State (4-1, 6-1) 18 7.18 7.13 (+0.05) 7.41 6.41
Arizona (3-1, 6-1) 27 6.18 5.65 (+0.53) 6.85 5.85
USC (4-2, 5-3) 23 6.13 6.57 (-0.44) 6.24 5.24
UCLA (3-2, 6-2) 24 5.74 6.09 (-0.35) 6.08 5.08
Utah (3-1, 6-1) 32 4.95 4.78 (+0.17) 5.72 4.72
Colorado (0-5, 2-6) 75 0.64 0.57 (+0.07) 1.23 0.23

NORTH
Major contenders: Oregon
Minor contenders: none

Stanford is going to slow the pace way down and play really good defense, and that alone might give the Cardinal a chance to knock Oregon off (again). But again ... unless there's another upset, too ... this race is over.

SOUTH
Serious contenders: Arizona State
Minor contenders: Arizona, USC, UCLA

Four weeks ago, Arizona State was 57th in the F/+ rankings. Then the Sun Devils won at USC, thumped Stanford, and held off Washington in Seattle. Now they're 18th.

And this was with an injury to quarterback Taylor Kelly. I ... did not see this one coming.

Regardless, if they continue playing at a top-20 level, the division's theirs. Obviously a trip to Arizona is far from a slam dunk, but getting Utah at home this week is big. But if ASU slips up at all, any of four other teams (poor Colorado) could make things very interesting.

Slog Level Delta

Here are the odds of a division champion finishing with a particular record:

Record North Winner South Winner
5-4 0.0% 0.0%
6-3 4.1% 2.7%
7-2 33.5% 52.9%
8-1 62.4% 44.4%
9-0 0.0% 0.0%

A 6-3 champion is still a possibility in both divisions, but not much of one.

All Projections

If Utah beats ASU -- and the Utes have already won at UCLA this season -- the South becomes a hot, delicious mess, especially if UCLA also beats Arizona.

Week Date Road Home Road Team's %Chance
10 01-Nov-14 Arizona UCLA 33.7%
10 01-Nov-14 California Oregon State 63.6%
10 01-Nov-14 Stanford Oregon 18.4%
10 01-Nov-14 USC Washington State 88.6%
10 01-Nov-14 Utah Arizona State 23.4%
10 01-Nov-14 Washington Colorado 59.4%
Week Date Road Home Road Team's %Chance
11 08-Nov-14 Colorado Arizona 5.2%
11 08-Nov-14 Oregon Utah 80.7%
11 08-Nov-14 UCLA Washington 84.2%
11 08-Nov-14 Washington State Oregon State 34.5%
Week Date Road Home Road Team's %Chance
12 13-Nov-14 California USC 12.9%
12 15-Nov-14 Arizona State Oregon State 89.2%
12 15-Nov-14 Utah Stanford 24.8%
12 15-Nov-14 Washington Arizona 9.5%
Week Date Road Home Road Team's %Chance
13 22-Nov-14 Arizona Utah 56.0%
13 22-Nov-14 Colorado Oregon 1.4%
13 22-Nov-14 Oregon State Washington 32.4%
13 22-Nov-14 Stanford California 78.7%
13 22-Nov-14 USC UCLA 37.4%
13 22-Nov-14 Washington State Arizona State 4.1%
Week Date Road Home Road Team's %Chance
14 28-Nov-14 Arizona State Arizona 55.8%
14 28-Nov-14 Stanford UCLA 39.2%
14 29-Nov-14 Oregon Oregon State 96.7%
14 29-Nov-14 Utah Colorado 84.2%
14 29-Nov-14 Washington Washington State 43.9%