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Updated Big Ten football projections after 9 weeks

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This morning, I used F/+ projections to help figure out what to expect from the national title race. In this space, let's go back to the conference races.

Gregory Shamus

Win projections

Odds of Big Ten conference records
West F/+ Ranking Proj. Conf. Wins Last Week (Change) With Week 10 win With Week 10 loss
Nebraska (3-1, 7-1) 13 6.43 6.26 (+0.17) 6.46 5.46
Wisconsin (2-1, 5-2) 29 5.43 3.29 (+2.15) 5.65 4.65
Northwestern (2-2, 3-4) 48 4.44 4.12 (+0.32) 5.07 4.07
Minnesota (3-1, 6-2) 42 4.18 5.58 (-1.39)

Iowa (2-1, 5-2) 49 3.99 4.70 (-0.71) 4.37 3.37
Purdue (1-3, 3-5) 64 2.35 2.63 (-0.28) 3.32 2.32
Illinois (1-3, 4-4) 80 1.68 0.57 (+1.11) 2.67 1.67
East F/+ Ranking Proj. Conf. Wins Last Week (Change) With Week 10 win With Week 10 loss
Michigan State (4-0, 7-1) 10 7.26 6.56 (+0.70)

Ohio State (3-0, 6-1) 8 7.17 7.25 (-0.08) 7.19 6.19
Maryland (2-2, 5-3) 43 3.72 5.15 (-1.42) 4.42 3.42
Penn State (1-3, 4-3) 40 3.48 3.46 (+0.02) 3.79 2.79
Michigan (1-3, 3-5) 60 2.58 2.61 (-0.03) 2.77 1.77
Rutgers (1-3, 5-3) 54 2.38 2.95 (-0.57) 3.15 2.15
Indiana (0-3, 3-4) 82 0.89 0.88 (+0.01) 1.70 0.70

WEST
Major contenders: Nebraska
Minor contenders: Wisconsin

Goodbye, Minnesota. Hello, Wisconsin. We were already suspecting that the West was a two-team race, but the Gophers laid an enormous egg in Champaign on Saturday while the Badgers dominated what is at worst a competent Maryland team. So now the numbers like UW again, and Nebraska's trip to Madison next weekend looms large.

Still, Nebraska seems like a solid favorite at this point, despite what seem to be tricky road trips to Wisconsin and Iowa. Why? Because the Huskers have been really, really good of late. Really, remove the confusing near-loss against McNeese State from the table, and you've got a series of mostly excellent results: wins by a combined 110-26 over FAU and Fresno State, a 10-point win over a Miami team that looks increasingly strong, a tight (eventually) road loss to Michigan State, and wins over Illinois, Northwestern and Rutgers by an average score of 42-18. That's awesome. We all saw them try to lose to McNeese, but that was a long time ago. And unless Wisconsin can sustain its improvement (despite still having no quarterback), Nebraska might keep producing results like this.

(Meanwhile, Minnesota wasn't actually scheduled to have a bye week this week. After losing to Illinois, they were grounded for a week to think about what they had done.)

EAST
Serious contenders: Michigan State, Ohio State
Minor contenders: none

With Ohio State trying to lose to Penn State and Michigan State dominating Michigan, the Spartans pushed back ahead of the Buckeyes in terms of projected wins. OSU still holds the edge in the F/+ ratings, but with the head-to-head matchup taking place in East Lansing, Sparty is again the B1G East favorite.

Slog Level Delta

Here are the odds of a division champion finishing with a particular record:

Record West Winner East Winner
4-4 0.0% 0.0%
5-3 1.0% 0.0%
6-2 34.5% 0.5%
7-1 64.4% 26.5%
8-0 0.0% 73.0%

Nebraska could still lose a couple of times on the road and create a 5-3 logjam ... but probably not. The odds of Nebraska and the MSU-OSU winner winning out are pretty good now.

All Projections

Week Date Road Home Road Team's %Chance
10 01-Nov-14 Illinois Ohio State 1.4%
10 01-Nov-14 Indiana Michigan 18.8%
10 01-Nov-14 Maryland Penn State 31.0%
10 01-Nov-14 Northwestern Iowa 37.1%
10 01-Nov-14 Purdue Nebraska 3.5%
10 01-Nov-14 Wisconsin Rutgers 77.5%
Week Date Road Home Road Team's %Chance
11 08-Nov-14 Iowa Minnesota 28.3%
11 08-Nov-14 Michigan Northwestern 31.8%
11 08-Nov-14 Ohio State Michigan State 38.6%
11 08-Nov-14 Penn State Indiana 81.4%
11 08-Nov-14 Wisconsin Purdue 80.2%
Week Date Road Home Road Team's %Chance
12 15-Nov-14 Indiana Rutgers 18.2%
12 15-Nov-14 Iowa Illinois 71.2%
12 15-Nov-14 Michigan State Maryland 86.6%
12 15-Nov-14 Nebraska Wisconsin 68.0%
12 15-Nov-14 Ohio State Minnesota 84.6%
Week Date Road Home Road Team's %Chance
13 22-Nov-14 Indiana Ohio State 1.4%
13 22-Nov-14 Maryland Michigan 57.2%
13 22-Nov-14 Minnesota Nebraska 9.5%
13 22-Nov-14 Northwestern Purdue 56.6%
13 22-Nov-14 Penn State Illinois 79.2%
13 22-Nov-14 Rutgers Michigan State 3.9%
13 22-Nov-14 Wisconsin Iowa 74.3%
Week Date Road Home Road Team's %Chance
14 28-Nov-14 Nebraska Iowa 87.7%
14 29-Nov-14 Illinois Northwestern 17.3%
14 29-Nov-14 Michigan Ohio State 3.3%
14 29-Nov-14 Michigan State Penn State 82.9%
14 29-Nov-14 Minnesota Wisconsin 21.4%
14 29-Nov-14 Purdue Indiana 67.0%
14 29-Nov-14 Rutgers Maryland 29.4%