Updated Big 12 football projections after 9 weeks

Win projections

While some races got flipped on their ear a bit last week -- the SEC West, ACC Coastal, etc., saw some pretty strong moves in terms of projected wins -- the Big 12 held incredibly steady. But while our dream of some five-way tie in the SEC West or a seven-way tie in the ACC Coastal are on life support ... we really could end up seeing five Big 12 teams tied at 7-2 at the end of the regular season.

Odds of Big 12 conference records

Major contenders: TCU, Kansas State, Oklahoma, West Virginia, Baylor
Minor contenders: none

Now, there are two ways to look at this race. At this point, TCU has both Oklahoma and Baylor in the rearview and is projected with a 69 percent chance of beating WVU this weekend and a 75 percent chance of beating KSU next weekend. Win those, and this race is over. The Frogs are favored in every game, including those, and if they simply hold serve as favorites, they win.

But the loss to Baylor, in addition to the high quality of both KSU and WVU (and, of course, OU and Baylor), mean that TCU has absolutely no margin for error. If the Horned Frogs trip up once, almost literally half the Big 12 becomes co-favorite, especially if they lose to WVU but go ahead and beat KSU (which needs a couple of losses for Project 7-2 to work).

This is shaping up to be a fun, strange race ... once TCU loses again.

All Projections