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Updated Big 12 football projections after 9 weeks

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This morning, I used F/+ projections to help figure out what to expect from the national title race. In this space, let's go back to the conference races.

Justin K. Aller

Win projections

While some races got flipped on their ear a bit last week -- the SEC West, ACC Coastal, etc., saw some pretty strong moves in terms of projected wins -- the Big 12 held incredibly steady. But while our dream of some five-way tie in the SEC West or a seven-way tie in the ACC Coastal are on life support ... we really could end up seeing five Big 12 teams tied at 7-2 at the end of the regular season.

Odds of Big 12 conference records
Big 12 F/+ Ranking Proj. Conf. Wins Last Week (Change) With Week 10 win With Week 10 loss
TCU (3-1, 6-1) 7 7.37 7.49 (-0.12) 7.69 6.69
Kansas State (4-0, 6-1) 17 6.94 6.56 (+0.38) 7.05 6.05
Oklahoma (2-2, 5-2) 6 6.69 6.70 (-0.01) 6.72 5.72
West Virginia (4-1, 6-2) 25 6.60 6.40 (+0.20) 7.29 6.29
Baylor (3-1, 6-1) 20 6.58 6.70 (-0.12) 6.59 5.59
Oklahoma State (3-2, 5-3) 44 4.04 4.36 (-0.32) 4.93 3.93
Texas (2-3, 3-5) 67 2.77 2.88 (-0.12) 3.40 2.40
Texas Tech (1-4, 3-5) 68 2.13 1.99 (+0.13) 2.49 1.49
Iowa State (0-4, 2-5) 66 1.59 1.68 (-0.09) 2.56 1.56
Kansas (0-4, 2-5) 105 0.29 0.24 (+0.05) 1.28 0.28

Major contenders: TCU, Kansas State, Oklahoma, West Virginia, Baylor
Minor contenders: none

Now, there are two ways to look at this race. At this point, TCU has both Oklahoma and Baylor in the rearview and is projected with a 69 percent chance of beating WVU this weekend and a 75 percent chance of beating KSU next weekend. Win those, and this race is over. The Frogs are favored in every game, including those, and if they simply hold serve as favorites, they win.

But the loss to Baylor, in addition to the high quality of both KSU and WVU (and, of course, OU and Baylor), mean that TCU has absolutely no margin for error. If the Horned Frogs trip up once, almost literally half the Big 12 becomes co-favorite, especially if they lose to WVU but go ahead and beat KSU (which needs a couple of losses for Project 7-2 to work).

This is shaping up to be a fun, strange race ... once TCU loses again.

All Projections

Week Date Road Home Road Team's %Chance
10 01-Nov-14 Kansas Baylor 1.4%
10 01-Nov-14 Oklahoma Iowa State 96.7%
10 01-Nov-14 Oklahoma State Kansas State 10.7%
10 01-Nov-14 TCU West Virginia 68.9%
10 01-Nov-14 Texas Texas Tech 37.0%
Week Date Road Home Road Team's %Chance
11 08-Nov-14 Baylor Oklahoma 19.5%
11 08-Nov-14 Iowa State Kansas 76.2%
11 08-Nov-14 Kansas State TCU 24.7%
11 08-Nov-14 West Virginia Texas 86.7%
Week Date Road Home Road Team's %Chance
12 15-Nov-14 Oklahoma Texas Tech 96.9%
12 15-Nov-14 TCU Kansas 98.6%
12 15-Nov-14 Texas Oklahoma State 22.0%
Week Date Road Home Road Team's %Chance
13 20-Nov-14 Kansas State West Virginia 44.2%
13 22-Nov-14 Kansas Oklahoma 1.4%
13 22-Nov-14 Oklahoma State Baylor 11.7%
13 22-Nov-14 Texas Tech Iowa State 36.1%
Week Date Road Home Road Team's %Chance
14 27-Nov-14 TCU Texas 95.6%
14 29-Nov-14 Baylor Texas Tech 89.6%
14 29-Nov-14 Kansas Kansas State 1.4%
14 29-Nov-14 West Virginia Iowa State 86.4%
Week Date Road Home Road Team's %Chance
15 06-Dec-14 Iowa State TCU 1.7%
15 06-Dec-14 Kansas State Baylor 38.7%
15 06-Dec-14 Oklahoma State Oklahoma 3.7%