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Illinois 28, Minnesota 24
Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.
| Basics | Illinois | Minnesota | Nat'l Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Plays | 64 | 71 | |
| Close Rate (non-garbage time) | 100.0% | ||
| Avg Starting FP | 29.2 | 23.5 | 29.8 |
| Possessions | 14 | 15 | |
| Scoring Opportunities* |
5 | 7 | |
| Points Per Opportunity | 4.20 | 3.43 | 4.70 |
| Leverage Rate** | 65.6% | 66.2% | 68.2% |
| Close S&P*** | 0.453 | 0.479 | 0.506 |
|
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40). ** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs) *** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP) |
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| EqPts (what's this?) | Illinois | Minnesota | |
| Total | 19.1 | 25.4 | |
| Rushing | 10.5 | 12.0 | |
| Passing | 8.6 | 13.4 | |
| Success Rate (what's this?) | Illinois | Minnesota | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 35.9% | 31.0% | 41.9% |
| Rushing (close) | 34.2% | 35.1% | 43.4% |
| Passing (close) | 38.5% | 26.5% | 40.3% |
| Standard Downs | 50.0% | 38.3% | 47.1% |
| Passing Downs | 9.1% | 16.7% | 30.6% |
| IsoPPP (what's this?) | Illinois | Minnesota | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 0.83 | 1.15 | 0.85 |
| Rushing (close) | 0.81 | 0.92 | 0.73 |
| Passing (close) | 0.86 | 1.49 | 0.99 |
| Standard Downs | 0.79 | 1.24 | 0.77 |
| Passing Downs | 1.26 | 0.77 | 1.14 |
| Line Stats | Illinois | Minnesota | Nat'l Avg |
| Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) | 1.94 | 2.51 | 2.92 |
| Std. Downs Sack Rt. | 7.7% | 0.0% | 4.7% |
| Pass. Downs Sack Rt. | 15.4% | 23.5% | 7.5% |
| Turnovers | Illinois | Minnesota |
|---|---|---|
| Turnovers | 1 | 3 |
| Turnover Points (what's this?) | 3.9 | 13.4 |
| Turnover Margin | Illinois +2 | |
| Exp. TO Margin | Illinois +0.44 | |
| TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) | Illinois +1.56 | |
| TO Points Margin | Illinois +9.5 points | |
| Situational | Illinois | Minnesota |
| Q1 S&P | 0.675 | 0.326 |
| Q2 S&P | N/A | 0.292 |
| Q3 S&P | 0.471 | 0.968 |
| Q4 S&P | 0.176 | 0.362 |
| 1st Down S&P | 0.552 | 0.603 |
| 2nd Down S&P | 0.301 | 0.379 |
| 3rd Down S&P | 0.408 | 0.348 |
| Projected Scoring Margin: Illinois by 3.2 | ||
| Actual Scoring Margin: Illinois by 4 | ||
It was a pretty common upset script, really. Minnesota generated more scoring opportunities but couldn't capitalize, and Illinois benefited from some turnovers luck. That'll do it pretty often. Still ... woof, Minnesota. You held the Illini to a nine percent passing downs success rate and didn't allow a single successful play in the second quarter and still found a way to lose, mainly because of Illinois' Earnest Thomas III (4.0 tackles, 2.5 sacks, 1 forced fumble), T.J. Neal Jr. (7.5 tackles, 2.5 TFL, 1 forced fumble), and a fumble return touchdown. Yuck. No West title for you.
(And I wouldn't have thought that dressing like Eastern Michigan was step one toward an upset, but you be you, Illinois.)