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Study Hall: Illinois 28, Minnesota 24

Mike Granse-USA TODAY Sports

Illinois 28, Minnesota 24

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Basics Illinois Minnesota Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 64 71
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 100.0%
Avg Starting FP 29.2 23.5 29.8
Possessions 14 15
Scoring Opportunities*
5 7
Points Per Opportunity 4.20 3.43 4.70
Leverage Rate** 65.6% 66.2% 68.2%
Close S&P*** 0.453 0.479 0.506
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Illinois Minnesota
Total 19.1 25.4
Rushing 10.5 12.0
Passing 8.6 13.4
Success Rate (what's this?) Illinois Minnesota Nat'l Avg
All (close) 35.9% 31.0% 41.9%
Rushing (close) 34.2% 35.1% 43.4%
Passing (close) 38.5% 26.5% 40.3%
Standard Downs 50.0% 38.3% 47.1%
Passing Downs 9.1% 16.7% 30.6%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Illinois Minnesota Nat'l Avg
All (close) 0.83 1.15 0.85
Rushing (close) 0.81 0.92 0.73
Passing (close) 0.86 1.49 0.99
Standard Downs 0.79 1.24 0.77
Passing Downs 1.26 0.77 1.14
Line Stats Illinois Minnesota Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 1.94 2.51 2.92
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 7.7% 0.0% 4.7%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 15.4% 23.5% 7.5%
Turnovers Illinois Minnesota
Turnovers 1 3
Turnover Points (what's this?) 3.9 13.4
Turnover Margin Illinois +2
Exp. TO Margin Illinois +0.44
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) Illinois +1.56
TO Points Margin Illinois +9.5 points
Situational Illinois Minnesota
Q1 S&P 0.675 0.326
Q2 S&P N/A 0.292
Q3 S&P 0.471 0.968
Q4 S&P 0.176 0.362
1st Down S&P 0.552 0.603
2nd Down S&P 0.301 0.379
3rd Down S&P 0.408 0.348
Projected Scoring Margin: Illinois by 3.2
Actual Scoring Margin: Illinois by 4

It was a pretty common upset script, really. Minnesota generated more scoring opportunities but couldn't capitalize, and Illinois benefited from some turnovers luck. That'll do it pretty often. Still ... woof, Minnesota. You held the Illini to a nine percent passing downs success rate and didn't allow a single successful play in the second quarter and still found a way to lose, mainly because of Illinois' Earnest Thomas III (4.0 tackles, 2.5 sacks, 1 forced fumble), T.J. Neal Jr. (7.5 tackles, 2.5 TFL, 1 forced fumble), and a fumble return touchdown. Yuck. No West title for you.

(And I wouldn't have thought that dressing like Eastern Michigan was step one toward an upset, but you be you, Illinois.)