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Study Hall: West Virginia 34, Oklahoma State 10

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Brett Deering

West Virginia 34, Oklahoma State 10

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics Oklahoma State West Virginia Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 80 74
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 90.9%
Avg Starting FP 22.8 23.0 29.8
Possessions 14 13
Scoring Opportunities*
4 5
Points Per Opportunity 2.50 5.40 4.70
Leverage Rate** 53.8% 59.5% 68.2%
Close S&P*** 0.450 0.436 0.506
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Oklahoma State West Virginia
Total 20.8 25.5
Rushing 9.0 11.9
Passing 11.8 13.6
Success Rate (what's this?) Oklahoma State West Virginia Nat'l Avg
All (close) 37.3% 31.5% 41.9%
Rushing (close) 27.6% 30.8% 43.4%
Passing (close) 44.7% 32.4% 40.3%
Standard Downs 46.5% 34.1% 47.1%
Passing Downs 20.8% 27.6% 30.6%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Oklahoma State West Virginia Nat'l Avg
All (close) 0.76 0.92 0.85
Rushing (close) 0.89 0.63 0.73
Passing (close) 0.70 1.24 0.99
Standard Downs 0.80 1.10 0.77
Passing Downs 0.60 0.58 1.14
Line Stats Oklahoma State West Virginia Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 3.39 3.24 2.92
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 0.0% 5.9% 4.7%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 7.7% 17.7% 7.5%
Turnovers Oklahoma State West Virginia
Turnovers 2 0
Turnover Points (what's this?) 10.9 0.0
Turnover Margin West Virginia +2
Exp. TO Margin Oklahoma State +0.73
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) West Virginia +2.73
TO Points Margin West Virginia +10.9 points
Situational Oklahoma State West Virginia
Q1 S&P 0.427 0.744
Q2 S&P 0.573 0.346
Q3 S&P 0.361 0.388
Q4 S&P 0.308 0.531
1st Down S&P 0.528 0.556
2nd Down S&P 0.377 0.445
3rd Down S&P 0.346 0.474
Projected Scoring Margin: West Virginia by 15.6
Actual Scoring Margin: West Virginia by 24

From today's Numerical:

Since the start of the 2012 season, West Virginia had won three true road games -- 48-45 over Texas in 2012, 31-24 over Iowa State in 2012, and 30-27 over TCU in 2013. The Mountaineers have now won three in three tries in 2014. They narrowly survived trips to Maryland and Texas Tech earlier in the season, and on Saturday they pummeled Oklahoma State, 34-10, in Stillwater.

Granted, it was only a pummeling on the scoreboard; WVU was only plus-12 in total yardage and basically relied on turnovers and an extreme difference in drive finishing ability (points per scoring opportunity: WVU 5.4, OSU 2.5) to do the deed. Regardless, West Virginia is 3-0 on the road, 6-2 overall, and still very much in the thick of the Big 12 race after an ugly 2013. According to F/+, they've got a top-20 offense and a top-40 defense. This has been one hell of a turnaround by head coach Dana Holgorsen.

Oklahoma State is still 5-3 and will make a bowl game and whatnot, but the 'Pokes are 44th in the F/+ rankings after ranking 12th or better in each of the last four seasons. This game showed us some zero-sum action -- WVU is moving up and basically taking the place, however temporarily, of the tumbling 'Pokes.