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Utah 24, USC 21
Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.
| Basics | USC | Utah | Nat'l Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Plays | 70 | 74 | |
| Close Rate (non-garbage time) | 100.0% | ||
| Avg Starting FP | 20.8 | 34.2 | 29.8 |
| Possessions | 13 | 12 | |
| Scoring Opportunities* |
4 | 5 | |
| Points Per Opportunity | 3.50 | 3.40 | 4.70 |
| Leverage Rate** | 74.3% | 71.6% | 68.2% |
| Close S&P*** | 0.464 | 0.461 | 0.506 |
|
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40). ** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs) *** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP) |
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| EqPts (what's this?) | USC | Utah | |
| Total | 19.2 | 19.6 | |
| Rushing | 4.9 | 10.0 | |
| Passing | 14.3 | 9.5 | |
| Success Rate (what's this?) | USC | Utah | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 41.4% | 41.9% | 41.9% |
| Rushing (close) | 34.3% | 35.0% | 43.4% |
| Passing (close) | 48.6% | 50.0% | 40.3% |
| Standard Downs | 36.5% | 43.4% | 47.1% |
| Passing Downs | 55.6% | 38.1% | 30.6% |
| IsoPPP (what's this?) | USC | Utah | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 0.66 | 0.63 | 0.85 |
| Rushing (close) | 0.40 | 0.72 | 0.73 |
| Passing (close) | 0.84 | 0.56 | 0.99 |
| Standard Downs | 0.55 | 0.63 | 0.77 |
| Passing Downs | 0.86 | 0.63 | 1.14 |
| Line Stats | USC | Utah | Nat'l Avg |
| Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) | 2.51 | 2.62 | 2.92 |
| Std. Downs Sack Rt. | 4.8% | 5.3% | 4.7% |
| Pass. Downs Sack Rt. | 7.1% | 6.7% | 7.5% |
| Turnovers | USC | Utah |
|---|---|---|
| Turnovers | 2 | 2 |
| Turnover Points (what's this?) | 13.4 | 12.9 |
| Turnover Margin | +0 | |
| Exp. TO Margin | USC +1.17 | |
| TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) | Utah +1.17 | |
| TO Points Margin | Utah +0.5 points | |
| Situational | USC | Utah |
| Q1 S&P | 0.619 | 0.567 |
| Q2 S&P | 0.178 | 0.326 |
| Q3 S&P | 0.213 | 0.445 |
| Q4 S&P | 0.576 | 0.591 |
| 1st Down S&P | 0.457 | 0.413 |
| 2nd Down S&P | 0.392 | 0.527 |
| 3rd Down S&P | 0.615 | 0.443 |
| Projected Scoring Margin: Utah by 0.9 | ||
| Actual Scoring Margin: Utah by 3 | ||
This was one of the stranger games of the week on paper. USC and Utah were almost dead in efficiency, explosiveness, and finishing drives. Plus, both teams had a return touchdown (Utah via fumble return, USC via kickoff), so that cancels out. With all of those factors even, one would assume that a 14-yard field position advantage for Utah would have resulted in an easier victory, but it did not. The Utes still needed a fourth-down stuff and a last-second touchdown to win.
Regardless, they DID win, and they're now 6-1 and 32nd in F/+. Win in Tempe this Saturday (a tall task), and they might become the South favorites with Arizona coming to SLC in a few weeks.
As for USC, the Trojans are still a healthy 23rd in F/+, but the defense has trailed off dramatically from last year. I was able to convince myself that the offense would improve a bit and the defense would still be really good after Justin Wilcox took thd coordinator baton from Clancy Pendergast. Not so much. USC's up to 13th in Off. F/+ but down to 41st in Def. F/+. The leakiness has been costly enough for the Trojans to lose three games by six or fewer points. They used up quite a bit of karma in those Stanford and Arizona wins, evidently.