Utah 24, USC 21
Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.
|Close Rate (non-garbage time)||100.0%|
|Avg Starting FP||20.8||34.2||29.8|
|Points Per Opportunity||3.50||3.40||4.70|
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
|EqPts (what's this?)||USC||Utah|
|Success Rate (what's this?)||USC||Utah||Nat'l Avg|
|IsoPPP (what's this?)||USC||Utah||Nat'l Avg|
|Line Stats||USC||Utah||Nat'l Avg|
|Line Yards/Carry (what's this?)||2.51||2.62||2.92|
|Std. Downs Sack Rt.||4.8%||5.3%||4.7%|
|Pass. Downs Sack Rt.||7.1%||6.7%||7.5%|
|Turnover Points (what's this?)||13.4||12.9|
|Exp. TO Margin||USC +1.17|
|TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin)||Utah +1.17|
|TO Points Margin||Utah +0.5 points|
|1st Down S&P||0.457||0.413|
|2nd Down S&P||0.392||0.527|
|3rd Down S&P||0.615||0.443|
|Projected Scoring Margin: Utah by 0.9|
|Actual Scoring Margin: Utah by 3|
This was one of the stranger games of the week on paper. USC and Utah were almost dead in efficiency, explosiveness, and finishing drives. Plus, both teams had a return touchdown (Utah via fumble return, USC via kickoff), so that cancels out. With all of those factors even, one would assume that a 14-yard field position advantage for Utah would have resulted in an easier victory, but it did not. The Utes still needed a fourth-down stuff and a last-second touchdown to win.
Regardless, they DID win, and they're now 6-1 and 32nd in F/+. Win in Tempe this Saturday (a tall task), and they might become the South favorites with Arizona coming to SLC in a few weeks.
As for USC, the Trojans are still a healthy 23rd in F/+, but the defense has trailed off dramatically from last year. I was able to convince myself that the offense would improve a bit and the defense would still be really good after Justin Wilcox took thd coordinator baton from Clancy Pendergast. Not so much. USC's up to 13th in Off. F/+ but down to 41st in Def. F/+. The leakiness has been costly enough for the Trojans to lose three games by six or fewer points. They used up quite a bit of karma in those Stanford and Arizona wins, evidently.