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Study Hall: UCLA 40, Colorado 37

Byron Hetzler-USA TODAY Sports

UCLA 40, Colorado 37

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics Colorado UCLA Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 91 76
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 96.4%
Avg Starting FP 32.1 34.7 29.8
Possessions 18 18
Scoring Opportunities*
8 8
Points Per Opportunity 4.62 5.12 4.70
Leverage Rate** 67.0% 75.0% 68.2%
Close S&P*** 0.508 0.538 0.506
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Colorado UCLA
Total 31.4 32.2
Rushing 14.3 22.0
Passing 17.1 10.2
Success Rate (what's this?) Colorado UCLA Nat'l Avg
All (close) 47.1% 42.1% 41.9%
Rushing (close) 51.2% 46.0% 43.4%
Passing (close) 42.9% 38.5% 40.3%
Standard Downs 54.1% 47.4% 47.1%
Passing Downs 29.2% 26.3% 30.6%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Colorado UCLA Nat'l Avg
All (close) 0.66 1.01 0.85
Rushing (close) 0.62 1.29 0.73
Passing (close) 0.69 0.68 0.99
Standard Downs 0.63 0.93 0.77
Passing Downs 0.76 1.40 1.14
Line Stats Colorado UCLA Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 3.33 3.76 2.92
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 0.0% 0.0% 4.7%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 0.0% 0.0% 7.5%
Turnovers Colorado UCLA
Turnovers 2 1
Turnover Points (what's this?) 9.2 4.2
Turnover Margin UCLA +1
Exp. TO Margin Colorado +0.8
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) UCLA +1.8
TO Points Margin UCLA +5.0 points
Situational Colorado UCLA
Q1 S&P 0.313 0.650
Q2 S&P 0.672 0.647
Q3 S&P 0.276 0.496
Q4 S&P 0.641 0.310
1st Down S&P 0.538 0.616
2nd Down S&P 0.541 0.539
3rd Down S&P 0.399 0.375
Projected Scoring Margin: UCLA by 5.8
Actual Scoring Margin: UCLA by 3

From today's Numerical:

Colorado has now lost 17 straight games to teams ranked in the AP poll. But if you're looking for signs of progress, and the Buffaloes' No. 75 F/+ ranking (their highest since 2010) doesn't do it for you, Saturday provided a few of them. After losing their last 15 games against ranked teams by an average score of 47-14, Colorado fell to No. 25 UCLA in overtime, 40-37, at Folsom Field in Boulder.

The Buffs controlled the ball and the clock against a potent UCLA offense, gaining 500 yards in 91 plays and holding the ball for 35:05 in regulation. Michael Adkins II and Tony Jones combined for 175 yards in 34 carries, and Colorado scored the last 17 points in regulation after trailing 31-14 heading into the fourth quarter.

Alas, CU couldn't punch the ball into the end zone. They had to settle for a field goal with 36 seconds left in the fourth quarter, then stalled on both overtime possessions. That Will Oliver made all three of his field goal attempts gave the Buffs a chance, but UCLA's Brett Hundley scored from eight yards out in the second overtime to give UCLA a three-point win.

You're getting there, Colorado.

In the end, UCLA's bend-don't-break defense stiffened just enough and made just enough near-the-endzone stops to get the job done, but ... I didn't have elite expectations for UCLA this year, and the Bruins are still quite disappointing.