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Study Hall: TCU 82, Texas Tech 27

Ronald Martinez

Via Matt Mills:

TCU 82, Texas Tech 27

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics TCU Texas Tech Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 86 69
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 61.9%
Avg Starting FP 38.4 22.5 29.8
Possessions 16 15
Scoring Opportunities*
15 6
Points Per Opportunity 5.47 4.50 4.70
Leverage Rate** 62.1% 68.4% 68.2%
Close S&P*** 0.566 0.603 0.506
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) TCU Texas Tech
Total 57.3 28.6
Rushing 21.4 5.9
Passing 35.9 22.7
Success Rate (what's this?) TCU Texas Tech Nat'l Avg
All (close) 36.2% 36.8% 41.9%
Rushing (close) 36.4% 18.2% 43.4%
Passing (close) 36.1% 44.4% 40.3%
Standard Downs 38.9% 34.6% 47.1%
Passing Downs 31.8% 41.7% 30.6%
IsoPPP (what's this?) TCU Texas Tech Nat'l Avg
All (close) 1.38 1.54 0.85
Rushing (close) 1.22 1.80 0.73
Passing (close) 1.48 1.50 0.99
Standard Downs 1.25 1.57 0.77
Passing Downs 1.65 1.49 1.14
Line Stats TCU Texas Tech Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 3.02 1.76 2.92
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 0.0% 5.9% 4.7%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 9.5% 0.0% 7.5%
Turnovers TCU Texas Tech
Turnovers 0 4
Turnover Points (what's this?) 0.0 16.2
Turnover Margin TCU +4
Exp. TO Margin TCU +0.14
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) TCU +3.86
TO Points Margin TCU +16.2 points
Situational TCU Texas Tech
Q1 S&P 0.731 0.706
Q2 S&P 0.389 0.417
Q3 S&P 0.847 0.477
Q4 S&P 0.719 N/A
1st Down S&P 0.632 0.538
2nd Down S&P 0.634 0.541
3rd Down S&P 0.777 0.440
Projected Scoring Margin: TCU by 44.8
Actual Scoring Margin: TCU by 55

Four field goals. TCU settled for four field goals. With better execution near the end zone, the Frogs might have scored 90. Of course, when you generate 15 scoring opportunities in 16 games, you can afford to waste some. Goodness.

The funniest part: relatively speaking, it took TCU's offense a little while to get going, as the Frogs needed some big gains on passing downs to overcome sketchy success rates. And then when the game reached garbage-time status, they wreaked havoc.