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Study Hall: Auburn 42, South Carolina 35

Stacy Revere

Via Matt Mills:

Auburn 42, South Carolina 35

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics Auburn South Carolina Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 62 86
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 100.0%
Avg Starting FP 17.6 29.2 29.8
Possessions 8 11
Scoring Opportunities*
6 8
Points Per Opportunity 7.00 4.38 4.70
Leverage Rate** 82.3% 61.6% 68.2%
Close S&P*** 0.692 0.527 0.506
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Auburn South Carolina
Total 36.8 35.2
Rushing 27.2 6.0
Passing 9.6 29.3
Success Rate (what's this?) Auburn South Carolina Nat'l Avg
All (close) 62.9% 40.7% 41.9%
Rushing (close) 59.6% 33.3% 43.4%
Passing (close) 73.3% 45.3% 40.3%
Standard Downs 64.7% 39.6% 47.1%
Passing Downs 54.6% 42.4% 30.6%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Auburn South Carolina Nat'l Avg
All (close) 0.94 1.01 0.85
Rushing (close) 0.97 0.54 0.73
Passing (close) 0.87 1.22 0.99
Standard Downs 0.98 1.28 0.77
Passing Downs 0.77 0.60 1.14
Line Stats Auburn South Carolina Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 4.08 2.02 2.92
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 0.0% 0.0% 4.7%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 0.0% 0.0% 7.5%
Turnovers Auburn South Carolina
Turnovers 1 3
Turnover Points (what's this?) 4.0 12.5
Turnover Margin Auburn +2
Exp. TO Margin Auburn +1.98
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) Auburn +0.02
TO Points Margin Auburn +8.5 points
Situational Auburn South Carolina
Q1 S&P 0.517 0.628
Q2 S&P 0.794 0.571
Q3 S&P 0.843 0.640
Q4 S&P 0.625 0.305
1st Down S&P 0.630 0.482
2nd Down S&P 0.771 0.611
3rd Down S&P 0.717 0.448
Projected Scoring Margin: Auburn by 10.1
Actual Scoring Margin: Auburn by 7

From today's Numerical:

There were 17 minutes left in the game when South Carolina tied Auburn at 35-35 and recovered a surprise onside kick. The Gamecocks had scored touchdowns on their last three full possessions (not including a clock-killer at the end of the first half), and quarterback Dylan Thompson was enjoying one of his best career passing days.

The Gamecocks had three possessions to either take the lead or, later on, tie the game. But Thompson was picked off in the end zone following the onside kick. Then Thompson threw incomplete on fourth down from the Auburn 19. Then, on a Hail Mary attempt from the Auburn 41, he was picked off again as the clock expired. (Granted, there should have been one more snap from the 35.) In a game symbolic of South Carolina's season, the Gamecocks showed extreme promise but couldn't ever get the stop they needed and couldn't score when they had to. Auburn 42, South Carolina 35.

Flip the per-opportunity scoring averages, and South Carolina wins, 56-26. Instead, the Gamecocks just teased their fans. Again.

(I was thrown by South Carolina having 11 possessions to Auburn's eight, but it makes sense -- Auburn muffed a punt, South Carolina recovered an onside kick, and Auburn picked the ball off as time expired. None of those count as Auburn possessions.)