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LSU 10, Ole Miss 7
Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.
| Basics | LSU | Ole Miss | Nat'l Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Plays | 71 | 68 | |
| Close Rate (non-garbage time) | 100.0% | ||
| Avg Starting FP | 19.3 | 29.2 | 29.8 |
| Possessions | 13 | 12 | |
| Scoring Opportunities* |
4 | 4 | |
| Points Per Opportunity | 2.50 | 1.75 | 4.70 |
| Leverage Rate** | 81.7% | 51.5% | 68.2% |
| Close S&P*** | 0.496 | 0.383 | 0.506 |
|
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40). ** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs) *** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP) |
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| EqPts (what's this?) | LSU | Ole Miss | |
| Total | 19.2 | 14.2 | |
| Rushing | 11.6 | 5.9 | |
| Passing | 7.6 | 8.4 | |
| Success Rate (what's this?) | LSU | Ole Miss | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 47.9% | 30.9% | 41.9% |
| Rushing (close) | 49.1% | 34.4% | 43.4% |
| Passing (close) | 43.8% | 27.8% | 40.3% |
| Standard Downs | 51.7% | 25.7% | 47.1% |
| Passing Downs | 30.8% | 36.4% | 30.6% |
| IsoPPP (what's this?) | LSU | Ole Miss | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 0.57 | 0.68 | 0.85 |
| Rushing (close) | 0.43 | 0.54 | 0.73 |
| Passing (close) | 1.09 | 0.84 | 0.99 |
| Standard Downs | 0.56 | 0.54 | 0.77 |
| Passing Downs | 0.60 | 0.78 | 1.14 |
| Line Stats | LSU | Ole Miss | Nat'l Avg |
| Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) | 3.37 | 2.77 | 2.92 |
| Std. Downs Sack Rt. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 4.7% |
| Pass. Downs Sack Rt. | 0.0% | 8.7% | 7.5% |
| Turnovers | LSU | Ole Miss |
|---|---|---|
| Turnovers | 4 | 1 |
| Turnover Points (what's this?) | 14.8 | 2.5 |
| Turnover Margin | Ole Miss +3 | |
| Exp. TO Margin | LSU +0.74 | |
| TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) | Ole Miss +3.74 | |
| TO Points Margin | Ole Miss +12.2 points | |
| Situational | LSU | Ole Miss |
| Q1 S&P | 0.607 | 0.556 |
| Q2 S&P | 0.567 | 0.394 |
| Q3 S&P | 0.243 | 0.246 |
| Q4 S&P | 0.507 | 0.281 |
| 1st Down S&P | 0.541 | 0.325 |
| 2nd Down S&P | 0.467 | 0.453 |
| 3rd Down S&P | 0.398 | 0.394 |
| Projected Scoring Margin: Ole Miss by 7.3 | ||
| Actual Scoring Margin: LSU by 3 | ||
The projected scoring margin was 10 points off of the actual margin. Part of that can be explained by Ole Miss somehow scoring only seven points in four scoring opportunities (which would have matter more if LSU hadn't scored only 10 points in their four opportunities). Part of that can be explained by the field position Ole Miss gained from LSU turnovers ... which didn't actually result in points. It took a lot for Ole Miss to lose this game, in other words, right down to the second half injuries. Still, LSU played the Rebs better than Bama or anybody else had -- the 49 percent rushing success rate was pretty remarkable against this defense -- and benefited from quite a ratings bump anyway.
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