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Study Hall: LSU 10, Ole Miss 7

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Crystal LoGiudice-USA TODAY Sports

Via Matt Mills...

LSU 10, Ole Miss 7

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Basics LSU Ole Miss Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 71 68
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 100.0%
Avg Starting FP 19.3 29.2 29.8
Possessions 13 12
Scoring Opportunities*
4 4
Points Per Opportunity 2.50 1.75 4.70
Leverage Rate** 81.7% 51.5% 68.2%
Close S&P*** 0.496 0.383 0.506
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) LSU Ole Miss
Total 19.2 14.2
Rushing 11.6 5.9
Passing 7.6 8.4
Success Rate (what's this?) LSU Ole Miss Nat'l Avg
All (close) 47.9% 30.9% 41.9%
Rushing (close) 49.1% 34.4% 43.4%
Passing (close) 43.8% 27.8% 40.3%
Standard Downs 51.7% 25.7% 47.1%
Passing Downs 30.8% 36.4% 30.6%
IsoPPP (what's this?) LSU Ole Miss Nat'l Avg
All (close) 0.57 0.68 0.85
Rushing (close) 0.43 0.54 0.73
Passing (close) 1.09 0.84 0.99
Standard Downs 0.56 0.54 0.77
Passing Downs 0.60 0.78 1.14
Line Stats LSU Ole Miss Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 3.37 2.77 2.92
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 0.0% 0.0% 4.7%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 0.0% 8.7% 7.5%
Turnovers LSU Ole Miss
Turnovers 4 1
Turnover Points (what's this?) 14.8 2.5
Turnover Margin Ole Miss +3
Exp. TO Margin LSU +0.74
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) Ole Miss +3.74
TO Points Margin Ole Miss +12.2 points
Situational LSU Ole Miss
Q1 S&P 0.607 0.556
Q2 S&P 0.567 0.394
Q3 S&P 0.243 0.246
Q4 S&P 0.507 0.281
1st Down S&P 0.541 0.325
2nd Down S&P 0.467 0.453
3rd Down S&P 0.398 0.394
Projected Scoring Margin: Ole Miss by 7.3
Actual Scoring Margin: LSU by 3

The projected scoring margin was 10 points off of the actual margin. Part of that can be explained by Ole Miss somehow scoring only seven points in four scoring opportunities (which would have matter more if LSU hadn't scored only 10 points in their four opportunities). Part of that can be explained by the field position Ole Miss gained from LSU turnovers ... which didn't actually result in points. It took a lot for Ole Miss to lose this game, in other words, right down to the second half injuries. Still, LSU played the Rebs better than Bama or anybody else had -- the 49 percent rushing success rate was pretty remarkable against this defense -- and benefited from quite a ratings bump anyway.