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Study Hall: Ohio State 31, Penn State 24

Evan Habeeb-USA TODAY Sports

Via Matt Mills (not including overtime):

Ohio State 31, Penn State 24

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics Ohio State Penn State Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 76 81
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 100.0%
Avg Starting FP 40.8 29.5 29.8
Possessions 16 14
Scoring Opportunities*
6 4
Points Per Opportunity 5.17 4.25 4.70
Leverage Rate** 76.3% 67.9% 68.2%
Close S&P*** 0.479 0.370 0.506
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Ohio State Penn State
Total 21.7 13.9
Rushing 17.4 3.6
Passing 4.3 10.3
Success Rate (what's this?) Ohio State Penn State Nat'l Avg
All (close) 43.4% 33.3% 41.9%
Rushing (close) 48.2% 34.6% 43.4%
Passing (close) 31.8% 32.7% 40.3%
Standard Downs 51.7% 34.6% 47.1%
Passing Downs 16.7% 30.8% 30.6%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Ohio State Penn State Nat'l Avg
All (close) 0.66 0.51 0.85
Rushing (close) 0.67 0.40 0.73
Passing (close) 0.61 0.57 0.99
Standard Downs 0.63 0.42 0.77
Passing Downs 0.90 0.73 1.14
Line Stats Ohio State Penn State Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 3.18 1.64 2.92
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 7.7% 3.2% 4.7%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 22.2% 16.7% 7.5%
Turnovers Ohio State Penn State
Turnovers 2 2
Turnover Points (what's this?) 12.0 6.7
Turnover Margin +0
Exp. TO Margin +0
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) +0
TO Points Margin Penn State +5.4 points
Situational Ohio State Penn State
Q1 S&P 0.648 0.374
Q2 S&P 0.528 0.201
Q3 S&P 0.309 0.182
Q4 S&P 0.295 0.431
1st Down S&P 0.520 0.347
2nd Down S&P 0.476 0.334
3rd Down S&P 0.414 0.486
Projected Scoring Margin: Ohio State by 2.4
Actual Scoring Margin: Ohio State by 7

From today's Numerical:

It's typically the case in Penn State games at this point, both because of the Nittany Lions' awesome defense and patchy offensive line, but Saturday's Ohio State-Penn State game featured some of the least efficient passing you'll ever see.

Penn State's Christian Hackenberg: 31-for-49, 224 yards, one touchdown, two interceptions, five sacks for a loss of 35 yards. Yards per attempt (including sacks): 3.5.

Ohio State's J.T. Barrett: 12-for-19, 74 yards, one touchdown, two interceptions, three sacks for a loss of 19 yards. Yards per attempt (including sacks): 2.5.

Combined, that's a net total of 244 yards in 76 pass attempts, 3.2 yards per attempt. It comes as no surprise, then, that the offenses combined for just 48 points in 29 possessions (with another seven coming on a pick six), including four overtime possessions that started at the opponent's 25.

Redshirt freshman quarterback (Barrett) going up against what is, according to F/+, a top-10 defense? That hinted at a potential Ohio State letdown, and that certainly came to pass. Ohio State was fine on standard downs but quickly crumpled in must-pass situations.

But the Buckeyes' defense held up aside from some dinking and dunking here and there, and thanks to the pass rush and a couple of interesting calls, Ohio State's still on track to be in the playoff conversation. However, I'm assuming that, when combined with Michigan State's awesome game against Michigan, we'll see the Spartans creeping back ahead in tomorrow's Big Ten win projections piece.