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Via Matt Mills (not including overtime):
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Ohio State 31, Penn State 24
Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.
| Basics | Ohio State | Penn State | Nat'l Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Plays | 76 | 81 | |
| Close Rate (non-garbage time) | 100.0% | ||
| Avg Starting FP | 40.8 | 29.5 | 29.8 |
| Possessions | 16 | 14 | |
| Scoring Opportunities* |
6 | 4 | |
| Points Per Opportunity | 5.17 | 4.25 | 4.70 |
| Leverage Rate** | 76.3% | 67.9% | 68.2% |
| Close S&P*** | 0.479 | 0.370 | 0.506 |
|
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40). ** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs) *** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP) |
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| EqPts (what's this?) | Ohio State | Penn State | |
| Total | 21.7 | 13.9 | |
| Rushing | 17.4 | 3.6 | |
| Passing | 4.3 | 10.3 | |
| Success Rate (what's this?) | Ohio State | Penn State | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 43.4% | 33.3% | 41.9% |
| Rushing (close) | 48.2% | 34.6% | 43.4% |
| Passing (close) | 31.8% | 32.7% | 40.3% |
| Standard Downs | 51.7% | 34.6% | 47.1% |
| Passing Downs | 16.7% | 30.8% | 30.6% |
| IsoPPP (what's this?) | Ohio State | Penn State | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 0.66 | 0.51 | 0.85 |
| Rushing (close) | 0.67 | 0.40 | 0.73 |
| Passing (close) | 0.61 | 0.57 | 0.99 |
| Standard Downs | 0.63 | 0.42 | 0.77 |
| Passing Downs | 0.90 | 0.73 | 1.14 |
| Line Stats | Ohio State | Penn State | Nat'l Avg |
| Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) | 3.18 | 1.64 | 2.92 |
| Std. Downs Sack Rt. | 7.7% | 3.2% | 4.7% |
| Pass. Downs Sack Rt. | 22.2% | 16.7% | 7.5% |
| Turnovers | Ohio State | Penn State |
|---|---|---|
| Turnovers | 2 | 2 |
| Turnover Points (what's this?) | 12.0 | 6.7 |
| Turnover Margin | +0 | |
| Exp. TO Margin | +0 | |
| TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) | +0 | |
| TO Points Margin | Penn State +5.4 points | |
| Situational | Ohio State | Penn State |
| Q1 S&P | 0.648 | 0.374 |
| Q2 S&P | 0.528 | 0.201 |
| Q3 S&P | 0.309 | 0.182 |
| Q4 S&P | 0.295 | 0.431 |
| 1st Down S&P | 0.520 | 0.347 |
| 2nd Down S&P | 0.476 | 0.334 |
| 3rd Down S&P | 0.414 | 0.486 |
| Projected Scoring Margin: Ohio State by 2.4 | ||
| Actual Scoring Margin: Ohio State by 7 | ||
It's typically the case in Penn State games at this point, both because of the Nittany Lions' awesome defense and patchy offensive line, but Saturday's Ohio State-Penn State game featured some of the least efficient passing you'll ever see.
Penn State's Christian Hackenberg: 31-for-49, 224 yards, one touchdown, two interceptions, five sacks for a loss of 35 yards. Yards per attempt (including sacks): 3.5.
Ohio State's J.T. Barrett: 12-for-19, 74 yards, one touchdown, two interceptions, three sacks for a loss of 19 yards. Yards per attempt (including sacks): 2.5.
Combined, that's a net total of 244 yards in 76 pass attempts, 3.2 yards per attempt. It comes as no surprise, then, that the offenses combined for just 48 points in 29 possessions (with another seven coming on a pick six), including four overtime possessions that started at the opponent's 25.
Redshirt freshman quarterback (Barrett) going up against what is, according to F/+, a top-10 defense? That hinted at a potential Ohio State letdown, and that certainly came to pass. Ohio State was fine on standard downs but quickly crumpled in must-pass situations.
But the Buckeyes' defense held up aside from some dinking and dunking here and there, and thanks to the pass rush and a couple of interesting calls, Ohio State's still on track to be in the playoff conversation. However, I'm assuming that, when combined with Michigan State's awesome game against Michigan, we'll see the Spartans creeping back ahead in tomorrow's Big Ten win projections piece.