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Study Hall: Mississippi State 45, Kentucky 31

Andy Lyons

Mississippi State 45, Kentucky 31

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics Kentucky Mississippi State Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 76 84
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 100.0%
Avg Starting FP 23.4 30.6 29.8
Possessions 15 14
Scoring Opportunities*
6 9
Points Per Opportunity 5.17 4.22 4.70
Leverage Rate** 64.5% 69.1% 68.2%
Close S&P*** 0.538 0.572 0.506
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Kentucky Mississippi State
Total 31.5 34.9
Rushing 9.5 23.7
Passing 21.9 11.2
Success Rate (what's this?) Kentucky Mississippi State Nat'l Avg
All (close) 43.4% 51.2% 41.9%
Rushing (close) 48.0% 56.3% 43.4%
Passing (close) 41.2% 44.4% 40.3%
Standard Downs 53.1% 56.9% 47.1%
Passing Downs 25.9% 38.5% 30.6%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Kentucky Mississippi State Nat'l Avg
All (close) 0.95 0.81 0.85
Rushing (close) 0.80 0.88 0.73
Passing (close) 1.04 0.70 0.99
Standard Downs 0.77 0.83 0.77
Passing Downs 1.63 0.74 1.14
Line Stats Kentucky Mississippi State Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 3.46 3.56 2.92
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 5.9% 8.7% 4.7%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 29.4% 7.7% 7.5%
Turnovers Kentucky Mississippi State
Turnovers 1 1
Turnover Points (what's this?) 4.7 2.4
Turnover Margin +0
Exp. TO Margin Mississippi State +0.44
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) Kentucky +0.44
TO Points Margin Mississippi State +2.3 points
Situational Kentucky Mississippi State
Q1 S&P 0.495 0.549
Q2 S&P 0.446 0.624
Q3 S&P 0.720 0.610
Q4 S&P 0.512 0.521
1st Down S&P 0.529 0.519
2nd Down S&P 0.629 0.603
3rd Down S&P 0.447 0.675
Projected Scoring Margin: Mississippi State by 5.8
Actual Scoring Margin: Mississippi State by 14

Kentucky was incredibly volatile on Saturday, as Patrick Towles was sacked six times but averaged 16.3 yards per completion. But volatility isn't the worst thing in the world when you're trying to pull a big upset, and big plays -- a 67-yarder to Demarco Robinson, a 58-yarder to Javess Blue, a 55-yarder to Ryan Timmons, a 48-yard run by Patrick Towles -- not only kept UK in the game but had them within seven in the final three minutes.

MSU's own efficiency (my goodness, are the Bulldogs efficient) was too much to overcome, but this was a hell of a risky, successful gameplan and performance from the Wildcats. With more turnovers luck, it might have been enough.