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Mississippi State 45, Kentucky 31
Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.
| Basics | Kentucky | Mississippi State | Nat'l Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Plays | 76 | 84 | |
| Close Rate (non-garbage time) | 100.0% | ||
| Avg Starting FP | 23.4 | 30.6 | 29.8 |
| Possessions | 15 | 14 | |
| Scoring Opportunities* |
6 | 9 | |
| Points Per Opportunity | 5.17 | 4.22 | 4.70 |
| Leverage Rate** | 64.5% | 69.1% | 68.2% |
| Close S&P*** | 0.538 | 0.572 | 0.506 |
|
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40). ** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs) *** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP) |
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| EqPts (what's this?) | Kentucky | Mississippi State | |
| Total | 31.5 | 34.9 | |
| Rushing | 9.5 | 23.7 | |
| Passing | 21.9 | 11.2 | |
| Success Rate (what's this?) | Kentucky | Mississippi State | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 43.4% | 51.2% | 41.9% |
| Rushing (close) | 48.0% | 56.3% | 43.4% |
| Passing (close) | 41.2% | 44.4% | 40.3% |
| Standard Downs | 53.1% | 56.9% | 47.1% |
| Passing Downs | 25.9% | 38.5% | 30.6% |
| IsoPPP (what's this?) | Kentucky | Mississippi State | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 0.95 | 0.81 | 0.85 |
| Rushing (close) | 0.80 | 0.88 | 0.73 |
| Passing (close) | 1.04 | 0.70 | 0.99 |
| Standard Downs | 0.77 | 0.83 | 0.77 |
| Passing Downs | 1.63 | 0.74 | 1.14 |
| Line Stats | Kentucky | Mississippi State | Nat'l Avg |
| Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) | 3.46 | 3.56 | 2.92 |
| Std. Downs Sack Rt. | 5.9% | 8.7% | 4.7% |
| Pass. Downs Sack Rt. | 29.4% | 7.7% | 7.5% |
| Turnovers | Kentucky | Mississippi State |
|---|---|---|
| Turnovers | 1 | 1 |
| Turnover Points (what's this?) | 4.7 | 2.4 |
| Turnover Margin | +0 | |
| Exp. TO Margin | Mississippi State +0.44 | |
| TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) | Kentucky +0.44 | |
| TO Points Margin | Mississippi State +2.3 points | |
| Situational | Kentucky | Mississippi State |
| Q1 S&P | 0.495 | 0.549 |
| Q2 S&P | 0.446 | 0.624 |
| Q3 S&P | 0.720 | 0.610 |
| Q4 S&P | 0.512 | 0.521 |
| 1st Down S&P | 0.529 | 0.519 |
| 2nd Down S&P | 0.629 | 0.603 |
| 3rd Down S&P | 0.447 | 0.675 |
| Projected Scoring Margin: Mississippi State by 5.8 | ||
| Actual Scoring Margin: Mississippi State by 14 | ||
Kentucky was incredibly volatile on Saturday, as Patrick Towles was sacked six times but averaged 16.3 yards per completion. But volatility isn't the worst thing in the world when you're trying to pull a big upset, and big plays -- a 67-yarder to Demarco Robinson, a 58-yarder to Javess Blue, a 55-yarder to Ryan Timmons, a 48-yard run by Patrick Towles -- not only kept UK in the game but had them within seven in the final three minutes.
MSU's own efficiency (my goodness, are the Bulldogs efficient) was too much to overcome, but this was a hell of a risky, successful gameplan and performance from the Wildcats. With more turnovers luck, it might have been enough.