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Study Hall: Michigan State 35, Michigan 11

Leon Halip

Michigan State 35, Michigan 11

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics Michigan Michigan State Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 57 68
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 64.0%
Avg Starting FP 35.9 24.4 29.8
Possessions 14 12
Scoring Opportunities*
5 6
Points Per Opportunity 2.00 4.67 4.70
Close S&P*** 0.240 0.600 0.506
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Michigan Michigan State
Total 10.4 28.4
Rushing 5.1 15.8
Passing 5.3 12.6
Success Rate (what's this?) Michigan Michigan State Nat'l Avg
All (close) 20.6% 52.2% 41.9%
Rushing (close) 20.0% 60.0% 43.4%
Passing (close) 21.1% 42.9% 40.3%
Standard Downs 28.6% 60.6% 47.1%
Passing Downs 7.7% 30.8% 30.6%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Michigan Michigan State Nat'l Avg
All (close) 0.37 0.91 0.85
Rushing (close) 0.57 0.62 0.73
Passing (close) 0.23 1.40 0.99
Standard Downs 0.23 0.90 0.77
Passing Downs 1.27 0.98 1.14
Line Stats Michigan Michigan State Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 1.47 3.34 2.92
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 20.0% 0.0% 4.7%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 0.0% 7.7% 7.5%
Turnovers Michigan Michigan State
Turnovers 3 2
Turnover Points (what's this?) 15.9 8.5
Turnover Margin Michigan State +1
Exp. TO Margin Michigan State +1.76
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) Michigan +0.76
TO Points Margin Michigan State +7.4 points
Situational Michigan Michigan State
Q1 S&P 0.278 0.547
Q2 S&P 0.235 0.603
Q3 S&P 0.301 0.651
Q4 S&P 0.560 0.600
1st Down S&P 0.355 0.596
2nd Down S&P 0.349 0.608
3rd Down S&P 0.447 0.608
Projected Scoring Margin: Michigan State by 25.4
Actual Scoring Margin: Michigan State by 24

From today's Numerical:

In the end, even with State's late touchdown, the final score of Michigan State 35, Michigan 11 was kind to the losing team. The Spartans doubled the Wolverines on a per-play basis (6.6 yards to 3.3) and more than doubled them up in total yardage (446 to 186). And the game was played at a snail's pace, too (125 total plays) -- even an average pace would have resulted in a Spartan win of 30-plus points.

Actually, I'll just stop there. I could go on about how Michigan has been surpassed by its "little brother" in every possible way, and how Brady Hoke's tenure is going to come to a merciful end before the calendar year, but you already know all of that.

I ... don't really have anything to add to that. As far as I can tell, only field position kept Michigan in this game (relatively speaking) for a while. Utter domination.