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Study Hall: Alabama 34, Tennessee 20

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Kevin C. Cox

Via Matt Mills:

Alabama 34, Tennessee 20

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics Alabama Tennessee Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 65 79
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 82.6%
Avg Starting FP 30.1 25.0 29.8
Possessions 12 12
Scoring Opportunities*
7 4
Points Per Opportunity 5.00 5.00 4.70
Leverage Rate** 66.2% 46.8% 68.2%
Close S&P*** 0.591 0.442 0.506
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Alabama Tennessee
Total 31.0 20.2
Rushing 13.3 7.9
Passing 17.7 12.2
Success Rate (what's this?) Alabama Tennessee Nat'l Avg
All (close) 46.7% 42.4% 41.9%
Rushing (close) 43.2% 40.0% 43.4%
Passing (close) 52.2% 44.8% 40.3%
Standard Downs 46.5% 48.7% 47.1%
Passing Downs 47.1% 31.8% 30.6%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Alabama Tennessee Nat'l Avg
All (close) 1.09 0.51 0.85
Rushing (close) 0.81 0.36 0.73
Passing (close) 1.46 0.66 0.99
Standard Downs 1.31 0.34 0.77
Passing Downs 0.51 0.96 1.14
Line Stats Alabama Tennessee Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 2.74 2.49 2.92
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 0.0% 0.0% 4.7%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 0.0% 18.2% 7.5%
Turnovers Alabama Tennessee
Turnovers 2 2
Turnover Points (what's this?) 10.4 4.7
Turnover Margin +0
Exp. TO Margin Tennessee +0.07
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) Alabama +0.07
TO Points Margin Tennessee +5.6 points
Situational Alabama Tennessee
Q1 S&P 0.724 0.373
Q2 S&P 0.529 0.536
Q3 S&P 0.536 0.550
Q4 S&P 0.413 0.311
1st Down S&P 0.603 0.360
2nd Down S&P 0.488 0.410
3rd Down S&P 0.723 0.651
Projected Scoring Margin: Alabama by 5.2
Actual Scoring Margin: Alabama by 14

Ignore the order of the scores, and this one seems like a pretty nip-and-tuck affair, with each team playing at the same level in terms of efficiency, splitting the turnovers, etc. But Alabama held a solid field position advantage, made most of the bigger offensive plays (you're amazing, Amari Cooper) ... and, oh yeah, scored the first 27 points of the game.

That makes it difficult to know how to read this one. The outcome was never really in doubt, but Tennessee fought back just enough to mostly keep the game out of "garbage time" circumstances. (The numbers kind of punted on reading too much into this one, actually. Alabama remained third in the F/+ rankings, while Tennessee moved from 38th to 37th.)

I kind of hate that Tennessee tore off Josh Dobbs' redshirt, by the way. With Justin Worley out, obviously the Vols didn't have much to offer at quarterback, and Nathan Peterman just hasn't done much of anything with his opportunities. Still, Tennessee was already down 13-0 when Dobbs came into a game that the Vols had minimal odds of winning anyway. He certainly looked decent -- 19-for-32, 192 yards, two touchdowns, a pick, a sack, 84 non-sack rushing yards -- and the final score was almost certainly more respectable with him than it would have been without him. But in the eighth game of the year, you just tore off a redshirt for a guy to play backup quarterback (when the starter is healthy), and now he won't be around in 2017. Maybe that's not a big deal -- maybe you sign your QB of the Future™ in the next couple of classes, and maybe Dobbs isn't anything but a short-term starter. Maybe. Or maybe he turns out to be the real deal, and you just sacrificed a year from his career so that you would lose by less to Alabama.