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Study Hall: Oregon 59, California 41

Brian Bahr

Oregon 59, California 41

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics California Oregon Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 93 76
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 72.2%
Avg Starting FP 31.5 37.1 29.8
Possessions 15 15
Scoring Opportunities*
8 9
Points Per Opportunity 5.25 5.78 4.70
Close S&P*** 0.524 0.645 0.506
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) California Oregon
Total 38.1 42.9
Rushing 17.6 17.0
Passing 20.5 25.9
Success Rate (what's this?) California Oregon Nat'l Avg
All (close) 41.0% 49.2% 41.9%
Rushing (close) 45.8% 44.1% 43.4%
Passing (close) 37.8% 55.6% 40.3%
Standard Downs 37.0% 46.7% 47.1%
Passing Downs 53.3% 56.3% 30.6%
IsoPPP (what's this?) California Oregon Nat'l Avg
All (close) 0.98 1.26 0.85
Rushing (close) 1.01 1.00 0.73
Passing (close) 0.96 1.52 0.99
Standard Downs 0.82 1.11 0.77
Passing Downs 1.32 1.61 1.14
Line Stats California Oregon Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 3.64 4.03 2.92
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 8.0% 0.0% 4.7%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 0.0% 0.0% 7.5%
Turnovers California Oregon
Turnovers 2 2
Turnover Points (what's this?) 9.2 13.1
Turnover Margin +0
Exp. TO Margin Oregon +2.49
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) California +2.49
TO Points Margin California +3.9 points
Situational California Oregon
Q1 S&P 0.661 0.686
Q2 S&P 0.450 0.619
Q3 S&P 0.584 0.654
Q4 S&P 0.513 0.555
1st Down S&P 0.466 0.598
2nd Down S&P 0.643 0.544
3rd Down S&P 0.485 0.755
Projected Scoring Margin: Oregon by 1.0
Actual Scoring Margin: Oregon by 18

Oregon's defense has actually held mostly steady this year, falling only from 22nd in Def. F/+ in 2013 to 28th today. Over the course of so many snaps (93) and so many passes, you're simply going to give up some points and yards like the Ducks did to Cal. Still ... Cal finished drives pretty well and converted more than half of their passing downs. That put a lot of pressure on Oregon's own offense to keep cranking out big plays. The Ducks did just that, but you don't want to have to rely on that.

On the bright side, Oregon's second in Off. F/+ despite the early-season line issues. That's encouraging considering Stanford (third in Def. F/+) is on the horizon.

Meanwhile, Cal is now 4-4 with two one-possession losses and a competitive loss to Oregon. If the Bears don't win at Oregon State on Saturday, a bowl bid might be tricky, but this is still a hell of a turnaround from last season.