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Oregon 59, California 41
Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.
| Basics | California | Oregon | Nat'l Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Plays | 93 | 76 | |
| Close Rate (non-garbage time) | 72.2% | ||
| Avg Starting FP | 31.5 | 37.1 | 29.8 |
| Possessions | 15 | 15 | |
| Scoring Opportunities* |
8 | 9 | |
| Points Per Opportunity | 5.25 | 5.78 | 4.70 |
| Close S&P*** | 0.524 | 0.645 | 0.506 |
|
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40). ** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs) *** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP) |
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| EqPts (what's this?) | California | Oregon | |
| Total | 38.1 | 42.9 | |
| Rushing | 17.6 | 17.0 | |
| Passing | 20.5 | 25.9 | |
| Success Rate (what's this?) | California | Oregon | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 41.0% | 49.2% | 41.9% |
| Rushing (close) | 45.8% | 44.1% | 43.4% |
| Passing (close) | 37.8% | 55.6% | 40.3% |
| Standard Downs | 37.0% | 46.7% | 47.1% |
| Passing Downs | 53.3% | 56.3% | 30.6% |
| IsoPPP (what's this?) | California | Oregon | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 0.98 | 1.26 | 0.85 |
| Rushing (close) | 1.01 | 1.00 | 0.73 |
| Passing (close) | 0.96 | 1.52 | 0.99 |
| Standard Downs | 0.82 | 1.11 | 0.77 |
| Passing Downs | 1.32 | 1.61 | 1.14 |
| Line Stats | California | Oregon | Nat'l Avg |
| Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) | 3.64 | 4.03 | 2.92 |
| Std. Downs Sack Rt. | 8.0% | 0.0% | 4.7% |
| Pass. Downs Sack Rt. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 7.5% |
| Turnovers | California | Oregon |
|---|---|---|
| Turnovers | 2 | 2 |
| Turnover Points (what's this?) | 9.2 | 13.1 |
| Turnover Margin | +0 | |
| Exp. TO Margin | Oregon +2.49 | |
| TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) | California +2.49 | |
| TO Points Margin | California +3.9 points | |
| Situational | California | Oregon |
| Q1 S&P | 0.661 | 0.686 |
| Q2 S&P | 0.450 | 0.619 |
| Q3 S&P | 0.584 | 0.654 |
| Q4 S&P | 0.513 | 0.555 |
| 1st Down S&P | 0.466 | 0.598 |
| 2nd Down S&P | 0.643 | 0.544 |
| 3rd Down S&P | 0.485 | 0.755 |
| Projected Scoring Margin: Oregon by 1.0 | ||
| Actual Scoring Margin: Oregon by 18 | ||
Oregon's defense has actually held mostly steady this year, falling only from 22nd in Def. F/+ in 2013 to 28th today. Over the course of so many snaps (93) and so many passes, you're simply going to give up some points and yards like the Ducks did to Cal. Still ... Cal finished drives pretty well and converted more than half of their passing downs. That put a lot of pressure on Oregon's own offense to keep cranking out big plays. The Ducks did just that, but you don't want to have to rely on that.
On the bright side, Oregon's second in Off. F/+ despite the early-season line issues. That's encouraging considering Stanford (third in Def. F/+) is on the horizon.
Meanwhile, Cal is now 4-4 with two one-possession losses and a competitive loss to Oregon. If the Bears don't win at Oregon State on Saturday, a bowl bid might be tricky, but this is still a hell of a turnaround from last season.