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Study Hall: Minnesota 39, Purdue 38

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Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

Minnesota 39, Purdue 38

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics Minnesota Purdue Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 70 61
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 100.0%
Avg Starting FP 33.4 31.2 29.8
Possessions 13 13
Scoring Opportunities*
8 7
Points Per Opportunity 5.12 5.43 4.69
Leverage Rate** 74.3% 60.7% 68.3%
Close S&P*** 0.588 0.576 0.506
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Minnesota Purdue
Total 31.9 31.4
Rushing 19.9 18.3
Passing 12.0 13.1
Success Rate (what's this?) Minnesota Purdue Nat'l Avg
All (close) 51.4% 39.3% 42.0%
Rushing (close) 53.9% 40.0% 43.5%
Passing (close) 44.4% 38.5% 40.4%
Standard Downs 57.7% 37.8% 47.3%
Passing Downs 33.3% 41.7% 30.5%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Minnesota Purdue Nat'l Avg
All (close) 0.89 1.31 0.85
Rushing (close) 0.71 1.31 0.73
Passing (close) 1.50 1.31 0.99
Standard Downs 0.86 1.67 0.77
Passing Downs 1.01 0.80 1.14
Line Stats Minnesota Purdue Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 3.65 3.08 2.93
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 0.0% 0.0% 4.7%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 0.0% 0.0% 7.4%
Turnovers Minnesota Purdue
Turnovers 1 2
Turnover Points (what's this?) 5.9 9.7
Turnover Margin Minnesota +1
Exp. TO Margin +0
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) Minnesota +1
TO Points Margin Minnesota +3.8 points
Situational Minnesota Purdue
Q1 S&P 0.645 0.782
Q2 S&P 0.526 0.582
Q3 S&P 0.698 0.627
Q4 S&P 0.442 0.337
1st Down S&P 0.528 0.563
2nd Down S&P 0.672 0.493
3rd Down S&P 0.566 0.759
Projected Scoring Margin: Minnesota by 4.3
Actual Scoring Margin: Minnesota by 1

So basically, Minnesota was more efficient, Purdue had bigger big plays, Minnesota was slightly lucky from a turnovers perspective, and Minnesota created one more scoring chance. Purdue was better in the first quarter, things were about even in the second and third, and Minnesota was better in the fourth.

Sound about right?