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Study Hall: UNC 48, Georgia Tech 43

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Grant Halverson

North Carolina 48, Georgia Tech 43

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics Georgia Tech North Carolina Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 69 88
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 100.0%
Avg Starting FP 24.2 29.3 29.8
Possessions 12 11
Scoring Opportunities*
8 7
Points Per Opportunity 5.38 6.86 4.69
Leverage Rate** 75.4% 80.7% 68.3%
Close S&P*** 0.692 0.643 0.506
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Georgia Tech North Carolina
Total 41.7 41.0
Rushing 23.6 13.9
Passing 18.1 27.1
Success Rate (what's this?) Georgia Tech North Carolina Nat'l Avg
All (close) 62.3% 61.4% 42.0%
Rushing (close) 71.4% 60.0% 43.5%
Passing (close) 40.0% 62.5% 40.4%
Standard Downs 63.5% 62.0% 47.3%
Passing Downs 58.8% 58.8% 30.5%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Georgia Tech North Carolina Nat'l Avg
All (close) 0.97 0.76 0.85
Rushing (close) 0.67 0.58 0.73
Passing (close) 2.26 0.90 0.99
Standard Downs 0.89 0.74 0.77
Passing Downs 1.22 0.86 1.14
Line Stats Georgia Tech North Carolina Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 4.08 3.59 2.93
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 14.3% 0.0% 4.7%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 0.0% 6.7% 7.4%
Turnovers Georgia Tech North Carolina
Turnovers 1 1
Turnover Points (what's this?) 4.0 3.2
Turnover Margin +0
Exp. TO Margin North Carolina +0.51
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) Georgia Tech +0.51
TO Points Margin North Carolina +0.7 points
Situational Georgia Tech North Carolina
Q1 S&P 0.708 0.636
Q2 S&P 0.638 0.681
Q3 S&P 0.634 0.694
Q4 S&P 0.807 0.584
1st Down S&P 0.656 0.657
2nd Down S&P 0.762 0.567
3rd Down S&P 0.651 0.667
Projected Scoring Margin: North Carolina by 0.1
Actual Scoring Margin: North Carolina by 5

So I didn't get to see much of this one ... there were actually varsity defenses on the field, right? I didn't realize success rates could go that high, and for the losing team, no less!