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Study Hall: West Virginia 41, Baylor 27

Justin K. Aller

West Virginia 41, Baylor 27

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Basics Baylor West Virginia Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 79 85
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 100.0%
Avg Starting FP 34.8 21.2 29.8
Possessions 16 16
Scoring Opportunities*
7 7
Points Per Opportunity 3.86 5.86 4.69
Leverage Rate** 65.8% 69.4% 68.3%
Close S&P*** 0.403 0.507 0.506
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Baylor West Virginia
Total 19.6 29.3
Rushing 6.9 9.6
Passing 12.7 19.7
Success Rate (what's this?) Baylor West Virginia Nat'l Avg
All (close) 29.1% 43.5% 42.0%
Rushing (close) 29.0% 40.4% 43.5%
Passing (close) 29.3% 47.4% 40.4%
Standard Downs 38.5% 49.2% 47.3%
Passing Downs 11.1% 30.8% 30.5%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Baylor West Virginia Nat'l Avg
All (close) 0.85 0.79 0.85
Rushing (close) 0.63 0.51 0.73
Passing (close) 1.06 1.09 0.99
Standard Downs 0.61 0.66 0.77
Passing Downs 2.47 1.26 1.14
Line Stats Baylor West Virginia Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 2.29 2.72 2.93
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 9.1% 4.6% 4.7%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 10.5% 12.5% 7.4%
Turnovers Baylor West Virginia
Turnovers 0 3
Turnover Points (what's this?) 0.0 14.1
Turnover Margin Baylor +3
Exp. TO Margin Baylor +0.51
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) Baylor +2.49
TO Points Margin Baylor +14.1 points
Situational Baylor West Virginia
Q1 S&P 0.390 0.431
Q2 S&P 0.485 0.578
Q3 S&P 0.437 0.345
Q4 S&P 0.321 0.612
1st Down S&P 0.441 0.539
2nd Down S&P 0.321 0.447
3rd Down S&P 0.572 0.527
Projected Scoring Margin: Baylor by 4.4
Actual Scoring Margin: West Virginia by 14

Penalties rarely actually matter in determining a winner, and I therefore don't pay them any mind here. But ... in creating an 18-point difference between what this box score projected and what the game actually produced, I would say that penalties played a pretty big role. That said...

...only one team was able to a) pass and b) finish drives. That probably played an even bigger role.

Still, that's a hell of a difference considering there weren't any special teams touchdowns. Strange game. Strange, unwatchable game.