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Study Hall: Georgia 45, Arkansas 32

Wesley Hitt

Georgia 45, Arkansas 32

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics Arkansas Georgia Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 82 56
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 49.3%
Avg Starting FP 25.6 40.8 29.8
Possessions 12 12
Scoring Opportunities*
7 8
Points Per Opportunity 5.00 4.75 4.69
Leverage Rate** 26.8% 51.8% 68.3%
Close S&P*** 0.436 0.639 0.506
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Arkansas Georgia
Total 31.4 29.6
Rushing 11.3 16.7
Passing 20.1 12.9
Success Rate (what's this?) Arkansas Georgia Nat'l Avg
All (close) 40.7% 53.7% 42.0%
Rushing (close) 45.0% 60.0% 43.5%
Passing (close) 28.6% 43.8% 40.4%
Standard Downs 45.5% 58.6% 47.3%
Passing Downs 20.0% 41.7% 30.5%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Arkansas Georgia Nat'l Avg
All (close) 0.55 1.05 0.85
Rushing (close) 0.61 0.97 0.73
Passing (close) 0.27 1.22 0.99
Standard Downs 0.58 0.89 0.77
Passing Downs 0.31 1.58 1.14
Line Stats Arkansas Georgia Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 3.24 3.67 2.93
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 25.0% 10.0% 4.7%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 33.3% 16.7% 7.4%
Turnovers Arkansas Georgia
Turnovers 4 0
Turnover Points (what's this?) 20.6 0.0
Turnover Margin Georgia +4
Exp. TO Margin Georgia +3.58
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) Georgia +0.42
TO Points Margin Georgia +20.6 points
Situational Arkansas Georgia
Q1 S&P 0.604 0.664
Q2 S&P 0.382 0.718
Q3 S&P 0.614 0.318
Q4 S&P 0.589 0.592
1st Down S&P 0.492 0.595
2nd Down S&P 0.567 0.575
3rd Down S&P 0.535 0.676
Projected Scoring Margin: Georgia by 18.8
Actual Scoring Margin: Georgia by 13

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So basically, this game played out like we would have guessed in the preseason -- Arkansas was able to run pretty efficiently, couldn't pass a lick (pre-garbage time), and couldn't stop Georgia's running game.

Granted, we didn't know in the preseason that this Arkansas team would be quite a bit better (and it is, even if the degree is diminishing at the moment), and granted, we didn't know that Georgia's running back would mainly be Nick Chubb and not Todd Gurley. So I guess that makes this a second straight surprisingly impressive Georgia performance, huh?