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Study Hall: Utah 29, Oregon State 23

Steve Dykes

Utah 29, Oregon State 23

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics Oregon State Utah Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 83 64
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 100.0%
Avg Starting FP 30.6 37.0 29.8
Possessions 16 15
Scoring Opportunities*
6 6
Points Per Opportunity 3.83 4.83 4.69
Leverage Rate** 69.9% 68.8% 68.3%
Close S&P*** 0.414 0.441 0.506
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Oregon State Utah
Total 19.5 19.1
Rushing 6.0 17.2
Passing 13.5 1.9
Success Rate (what's this?) Oregon State Utah Nat'l Avg
All (close) 34.9% 31.3% 42.0%
Rushing (close) 39.0% 40.5% 43.5%
Passing (close) 31.0% 13.6% 40.4%
Standard Downs 39.7% 36.4% 47.3%
Passing Downs 24.0% 20.0% 30.5%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Oregon State Utah Nat'l Avg
All (close) 0.67 0.95 0.85
Rushing (close) 0.38 1.01 0.73
Passing (close) 1.04 0.63 0.99
Standard Downs 0.49 0.84 0.77
Passing Downs 1.38 1.41 1.14
Line Stats Oregon State Utah Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 2.58 3.24 2.93
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 4.0% 30.0% 4.7%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 23.5% 8.3% 7.4%
Turnovers Oregon State Utah
Turnovers 2 2
Turnover Points (what's this?) 8.2 8.5
Turnover Margin +0
Exp. TO Margin Oregon State +0.8
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) Utah +0.8
TO Points Margin Oregon State +0.3 points
Situational Oregon State Utah
Q1 S&P 0.235 0.336
Q2 S&P 0.413 0.190
Q3 S&P 0.319 0.386
Q4 S&P 0.551 0.572
1st Down S&P 0.398 0.384
2nd Down S&P 0.497 0.432
3rd Down S&P 0.229 0.586
Projected Scoring Margin: Oregon State by 0.8
Actual Scoring Margin: Utah by 6

Seven field goal attempts, 17 tackles for loss, and two overtimes of bonus football!

And yes, Utah is third in Adj. Sack Rate, first in passing downs sack rate, and 11th in overall Havoc Rate. They're also 15th in IsoPPP (big-play prevention) and first in Special Teams F/+. The offense stinks, sure, but we should maybe be taking the Utes a bit more seriously in the Pac-12 South race ... not as the front-runner (because: stinky offense), but as a player.