clock menu more-arrow no yes

Filed under:

Study Hall: Duke 20, Virginia 13

New, 2 comments
Rob Kinnan-USA TODAY Sports

Duke 20, Virginia 13

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics Duke Virginia Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 68 78
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 100.0%
Avg Starting FP 28.6 23.0 29.8
Possessions 11 12
Scoring Opportunities*
4 5
Points Per Opportunity 5.00 2.60 4.69
Leverage Rate** 73.5% 65.4% 68.3%
Close S&P*** 0.507 0.493 0.506
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Duke Virginia
Total 19.6 20.9
Rushing 8.7 5.8
Passing 10.9 15.1
Success Rate (what's this?) Duke Virginia Nat'l Avg
All (close) 48.5% 47.4% 42.0%
Rushing (close) 56.7% 54.8% 43.5%
Passing (close) 42.1% 42.6% 40.4%
Standard Downs 54.0% 49.0% 47.3%
Passing Downs 33.3% 44.4% 30.5%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Duke Virginia Nat'l Avg
All (close) 0.59 0.57 0.85
Rushing (close) 0.51 0.34 0.73
Passing (close) 0.68 0.75 0.99
Standard Downs 0.58 0.48 0.77
Passing Downs 0.68 0.73 1.14
Line Stats Duke Virginia Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 3.78 3.33 2.93
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 0.0% 0.0% 4.7%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 0.0% 0.0% 7.4%
Turnovers Duke Virginia
Turnovers 0 1
Turnover Points (what's this?) 0.0 4.0
Turnover Margin Duke +1
Exp. TO Margin Duke +1.54
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) Virginia +0.54
TO Points Margin Duke +4.0 points
Situational Duke Virginia
Q1 S&P 0.639 0.405
Q2 S&P 0.433 0.620
Q3 S&P 0.404 0.533
Q4 S&P 0.568 0.358
1st Down S&P 0.504 0.450
2nd Down S&P 0.588 0.546
3rd Down S&P 0.340 0.525
Projected Scoring Margin: Duke by 2.7
Actual Scoring Margin: Duke by 7

Finish, finish, finish. Virginia gained more yards and created more scoring opportunities. But Duke scored two touchdowns and kicked two field goals in four opportunities, and Virginia scored one TD, settled for three field goals (missing one), and punted. Duke won. Success rates, etc., were almost exactly even, but only one team finished.

Side note, based on a radio conversation I had yesterday: Hey Florida, just hire David Cutcliffe. You're welcome.