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Study Hall: Nebraska 38, Northwestern 17

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Caylor Arnold-USA TODAY Sports

Nebraska 38, Northwestern 17

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics Nebraska Northwestern Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 74 73
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 87.8%
Avg Starting FP 42.2 19.2 29.8
Possessions 13 13
Scoring Opportunities*
9 3
Points Per Opportunity 4.22 5.67 4.69
Leverage Rate** 59.5% 61.6% 68.3%
Close S&P*** 0.589 0.455 0.506
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Nebraska Northwestern
Total 33.3 16.2
Rushing 20.1 9.9
Passing 13.2 6.3
Success Rate (what's this?) Nebraska Northwestern Nat'l Avg
All (close) 48.5% 41.3% 42.0%
Rushing (close) 52.6% 46.7% 43.5%
Passing (close) 42.9% 36.4% 40.4%
Standard Downs 56.8% 44.4% 47.3%
Passing Downs 31.8% 33.3% 30.5%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Nebraska Northwestern Nat'l Avg
All (close) 1.01 0.62 0.85
Rushing (close) 0.96 0.71 0.73
Passing (close) 1.09 0.52 0.99
Standard Downs 0.88 0.65 0.77
Passing Downs 1.47 0.54 1.14
Line Stats Nebraska Northwestern Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 3.45 3.52 2.93
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 0.0% 9.5% 4.7%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 0.0% 8.3% 7.4%
Turnovers Nebraska Northwestern
Turnovers 0 1
Turnover Points (what's this?) 0.0 2.5
Turnover Margin Nebraska +1
Exp. TO Margin Nebraska +0.95
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) Nebraska +0.05
TO Points Margin Nebraska +2.5 points
Situational Nebraska Northwestern
Q1 S&P 0.376 0.557
Q2 S&P 0.676 0.482
Q3 S&P 0.520 0.297
Q4 S&P 0.650 N/A
1st Down S&P 0.589 0.476
2nd Down S&P 0.538 0.386
3rd Down S&P 0.559 0.309
Projected Scoring Margin: Nebraska by 19.6
Actual Scoring Margin: Nebraska by 21

I guess the biggest surprise here is that, despite starting 30 yards further upfield on a given possession, Nebraska still outgained Northwestern by 181 yards.

This was a damn blowout. Eventually. Nebraska went three-and-out, punted two more times, and missed a field goal in its first eight possessions and managed to trail 17-14 at halftime before cranking out the last 24 points of the game.