Kansas State 31, Oklahoma 30
Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.
|Basics||Kansas State||Oklahoma||Nat'l Avg|
|Close Rate (non-garbage time)||100.0%|
|Avg Starting FP||25.5||26.0||29.8|
|Points Per Opportunity||6.00||3.75||4.69|
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
|EqPts (what's this?)||Kansas State||Oklahoma|
|Success Rate (what's this?)||Kansas State||Oklahoma||Nat'l Avg|
|IsoPPP (what's this?)||Kansas State||Oklahoma||Nat'l Avg|
|Line Stats||Kansas State||Oklahoma||Nat'l Avg|
|Line Yards/Carry (what's this?)||3.02||3.06||2.93|
|Std. Downs Sack Rt.||7.7%||0.0%||4.7%|
|Pass. Downs Sack Rt.||15.4%||0.0%||7.4%|
|Turnover Points (what's this?)||0.0||11.0|
|Turnover Margin||Kansas State +2|
|Exp. TO Margin||Kansas State +0.22|
|TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin)||Kansas State +1.78|
|TO Points Margin||Kansas State +11.0 points|
|1st Down S&P||0.667||0.656|
|2nd Down S&P||0.312||0.668|
|3rd Down S&P||0.545||0.599|
|Projected Scoring Margin: Kansas State by 0.3|
|Actual Scoring Margin: Kansas State by 1|
As I worked through the process of unpacking and making sense of my Five Factors idea this past offseason, the goal should have been pretty obvious. At some point I'd like to craft a new, better, more detailed S&P+ rating that encapsulates things the current formula overlooks -- special teams, finishing drives, etc.
If you're wondering, then, why S&P+ managed to move OU down just one spot while bumping KSU down quite a bit after KSU's upset win, look at what the formula doesn't emphasize right now.
Points Per Scoring Opportunity: KSU 6.00, Oklahoma 3.75
Now look at what it does:
Success Rate: OU 64.1%, KSU 40.0%.
Now factor in turnovers.
Turnover Points: Oklahoma 11.0, KSU 0.0.
Oklahoma generated twice as many scoring opportunities as KSU but gifted the Wildcats a pick six and, of course, missed two field goals and an extra point. It's hard to lose with a plus-24% success rate advantage, while generating twice as many scoring opportunities, no less. But that's how you do it. It's an unlikely path, one that that wouldn't happen more than once in a best-of-7 series, but ... it's only best-of-1.