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Study Hall: Kansas State 31, Oklahoma 30

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Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

Kansas State 31, Oklahoma 30

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics Kansas State Oklahoma Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 55 78
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 100.0%
Avg Starting FP 25.5 26.0 29.8
Possessions 10 11
Scoring Opportunities*
4 8
Points Per Opportunity 6.00 3.75 4.69
Leverage Rate** 65.5% 80.8% 68.3%
Close S&P*** 0.538 0.651 0.506
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Kansas State Oklahoma
Total 24.0 34.6
Rushing 9.7 12.9
Passing 14.2 21.8
Success Rate (what's this?) Kansas State Oklahoma Nat'l Avg
All (close) 40.0% 64.1% 42.0%
Rushing (close) 44.8% 59.5% 43.5%
Passing (close) 34.6% 69.4% 40.4%
Standard Downs 47.2% 66.7% 47.3%
Passing Downs 26.3% 53.3% 30.5%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Kansas State Oklahoma Nat'l Avg
All (close) 1.09 0.69 0.85
Rushing (close) 0.75 0.51 0.73
Passing (close) 1.58 0.87 0.99
Standard Downs 1.12 0.65 0.77
Passing Downs 0.99 0.92 1.14
Line Stats Kansas State Oklahoma Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 3.02 3.06 2.93
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 7.7% 0.0% 4.7%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 15.4% 0.0% 7.4%
Turnovers Kansas State Oklahoma
Turnovers 0 2
Turnover Points (what's this?) 0.0 11.0
Turnover Margin Kansas State +2
Exp. TO Margin Kansas State +0.22
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) Kansas State +1.78
TO Points Margin Kansas State +11.0 points
Situational Kansas State Oklahoma
Q1 S&P 0.619 0.693
Q2 S&P 0.502 0.583
Q3 S&P 0.653 0.620
Q4 S&P 0.244 0.739
1st Down S&P 0.667 0.656
2nd Down S&P 0.312 0.668
3rd Down S&P 0.545 0.599
Projected Scoring Margin: Kansas State by 0.3
Actual Scoring Margin: Kansas State by 1

As I worked through the process of unpacking and making sense of my Five Factors idea this past offseason, the goal should have been pretty obvious. At some point I'd like to craft a new, better, more detailed S&P+ rating that encapsulates things the current formula overlooks -- special teams, finishing drives, etc.

If you're wondering, then, why S&P+ managed to move OU down just one spot while bumping KSU down quite a bit after KSU's upset win, look at what the formula doesn't emphasize right now.

Points Per Scoring Opportunity: KSU 6.00, Oklahoma 3.75

Now look at what it does:

Success Rate: OU 64.1%, KSU 40.0%.

Now factor in turnovers.

Turnover Points: Oklahoma 11.0, KSU 0.0.

Ballgame.

Oklahoma generated twice as many scoring opportunities as KSU but gifted the Wildcats a pick six and, of course, missed two field goals and an extra point. It's hard to lose with a plus-24% success rate advantage, while generating twice as many scoring opportunities, no less. But that's how you do it. It's an unlikely path, one that that wouldn't happen more than once in a best-of-7 series, but ... it's only best-of-1.