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Updated SEC conference projections through 7 weeks

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Three weeks, three different title game projections.

Scott Cunningham

First things first: we have a fun new slider toy to play with. Below are two images for you to pan between. The one on the left is one of SEC win probabilities from two weeks ago; the one on the right is the current one. I thought it would be fun to check on how things have changed.

And now that that's out of our system, let's get to projecting.

Win projections

In three weeks, we've had three different projected title games. First, it was Mississippi State vs. Missouri. Then Ole Miss overtook Mississippi State by about one-third of a win. Then Georgia trounced Missouri on the field. Now we've got Rebels-Dawgs.

(Note: this week's F/+ rankings are the first of the season to include special teams as a standalone component. Adding that meant for some strange movement, like Arkansas and its awful special teams unit nearly beating Alabama and still falling 13 spots.)

East F/+ Ranking Proj. Conf. Wins Last Week (Change) With Week 8 win With Week 8 loss
Georgia (3-1, 5-1) 9 6.02 4.84 (+1.18) 6.22 5.22
Florida (2-2, 3-2) 44 4.30 4.24 (+0.06) 4.64 3.64
Missouri (1-1, 4-2) 48 4.18 5.20 (-1.02) 4.84 3.84
Tennessee (0-2, 3-3) 32 3.33 2.57 (+0.76) 4.28 3.28
South Carolina (2-3, 3-3) 42 3.07 3.43 (-0.36)

Kentucky (2-1, 5-1) 59 2.75 3.00 (-0.25) 3.58 2.58
Vanderbilt (0-4, 2-5) 111 0.10 0.47 (-0.37)

West F/+ Ranking Proj. Conf. Wins Last Week (Change) With Week 8 win With Week 8 loss
Ole Miss (3-0, 6-0) 1 7.23 6.46 (+0.77) 7.29 6.29
Mississippi State (3-0, 6-0) 2 6.86 6.16 (+0.70)

Auburn (2-1, 5-1) 3 5.20 5.34 (-0.14)

Alabama (2-1, 5-1) 10 5.07 5.27 (-0.20) 5.22 4.22
Texas A&M (2-2, 5-2) 36 3.60 4.18 (-0.58) 4.44 3.44
LSU (1-2, 5-2) 35 3.15 2.72 (+0.43) 3.33 2.33
Arkansas (0-3, 3-3) 43 1.13 2.14 (-1.01) 1.93 0.93

Perhaps the most interesting development from last week isn't what happened to the leaders -- Ole Miss had the West's best odds already, and we knew the winner of Georgia-Mizzou would have pretty commanding odds moving forward. No, the most noteworthy thing came with the elimination of any minor contenders.

EAST
Major contenders: Georgia
Minor contenders: none

Mizzou not only lost but looked awful doing it and fell to third in the projections, behind a Florida team that also lost. Suddenly Georgia's projected advantage in the East is 1.72 wins, and with only four conference games remaining (three of which UGA has at least an 80% chance of winning), Georgia's lead went from nonexistent to safe in a single weekend.

WEST
Serious contenders: Ole Miss, Mississippi State
Minor contenders: none

Ole Miss is threatening to run away and hide. The Rebels have five conference games left and have at least a 70% chance of winning three of them. That will make it awfully hard for Auburn or Alabama to catch up. Mississippi State also still has a chance of winning out, but with road trips to both Tuscaloosa and Oxford, that will be rough. So the Bulldogs are about 0.4 projected wins behind the Rebs, and everybody else is at least 2.0 wins back.

Last week, the East had two major contenders and a minor contender while the West had two of each. The number of overall contenders went from seven to three in a week.

Meanwhile, odds play another funny joke on our eyes at this point.

Granted, that was based on ESPN's FPI instead of our own F/+, but the odds would be relatively similar with either. Georgia's the SEC favorite?? How can that be? Because they have most of the odds of winning the East, of course, while Ole Miss and MSU are splitting the odds. The West champion will still be favored in the title game, but you still have to get there first.

Sure bets

Here are the remaining in-conference win probabilities, broken into ranges.

Team / Range 10-19%
Chance
20-29%
Chance
30-39%
Chance
40-49%
Chance
50-59%
Chance
60-69%
Chance
70-79%
Chance
80-89%
Chance
Alabama (2-1)

1 1

2 1
Arkansas (0-3) 3

2



Auburn (2-1)
1

2

2
Florida (2-2) 1


1 1
1
Georgia (3-1)


1


3
Kentucky (2-1) 4 1





LSU (1-2) 1 1 1
1

1
Mississippi State (3-0)

1

1
3
Missouri (1-1)
2 1
1
1 1
Ole Miss (3-0)




1 1 3
South Carolina (2-3) 1

1 1


Tennessee (0-2) 1 1
1

1 2
Texas A&M (2-2) 2



1 1
Vanderbilt (0-4) 4






70+% games: Ole Miss 4, Alabama 3, Georgia 3, Mississippi State 3, Tennessee 3, Auburn 2, Missouri 2, Florida 1, LSU 1, Texas A&M 1

Slog Level Delta

Here are the odds of a division champion finishing with a particular record:

Record West Winner East Winner
4-4 0.0% 0.3%
5-3 0.0% 17.1%
6-2 1.5% 54.8%
7-1 38.7% 27.8%
8-0 59.9% 0.0%

Dominant performances from Ole Miss and Georgia and a more-than-good-enough performance from Mississippi State meant that our chances of a division slog, particularly in the East, were diminished greatly. There's now a better than 50 percent chance that the West champion finishes undefeated, while there's an 82 percent chance that the East winner is 6-2 at worst.

Odds of SEC conference records

All Projections

Week Date Road Home Road Team's %Chance
8 18-Oct-14 Georgia Arkansas 80.4%
8 18-Oct-14 Kentucky LSU 17.4%
8 18-Oct-14 Missouri Florida 34.6%
8 18-Oct-14 Tennessee Ole Miss 5.3%
8 18-Oct-14 Texas A&M Alabama 15.1%
Week Date Road Home Road Team's %Chance
9 25-Oct-14 Alabama Tennessee 72.0%
9 25-Oct-14 Mississippi State Kentucky 95.9%
9 25-Oct-14 Ole Miss LSU 89.2%
9 25-Oct-14 South Carolina Auburn 8.4%
9 25-Oct-14 Vanderbilt Missouri 1.8%
Week Date Road Home Road Team's %Chance
10 01-Nov-14 Arkansas Mississippi State 4.2%
10 01-Nov-14 Auburn Ole Miss 24.0%
10 01-Nov-14 Florida Georgia 10.0%
10 01-Nov-14 Kentucky Missouri 26.7%
10 01-Nov-14 Tennessee South Carolina 43.2%
Week Date Road Home Road Team's %Chance
11 08-Nov-14 Alabama LSU 73.3%
11 08-Nov-14 Florida Vanderbilt 95.9%
11 08-Nov-14 Georgia Kentucky 89.4%
11 08-Nov-14 Texas A&M Auburn 10.0%
Week Date Road Home Road Team's %Chance
12 15-Nov-14 Auburn Georgia 57.2%
12 15-Nov-14 Kentucky Tennessee 16.4%
12 15-Nov-14 LSU Arkansas 57.1%
12 15-Nov-14 Mississippi State Alabama 65.9%
12 15-Nov-14 Missouri Texas A&M 26.7%
12 15-Nov-14 South Carolina Florida 42.3%
Week Date Road Home Road Team's %Chance
13 22-Nov-14 Missouri Tennessee 24.4%
13 22-Nov-14 Ole Miss Arkansas 93.1%
13 22-Nov-14 Vanderbilt Mississippi State 1.4%
Week Date Road Home Road Team's %Chance
14 27-Nov-14 LSU Texas A&M 38.0%
14 28-Nov-14 Arkansas Missouri 40.5%
14 29-Nov-14 Auburn Alabama 57.9%
14 29-Nov-14 Mississippi State Ole Miss 30.8%
14 29-Nov-14 Tennessee Vanderbilt 98.1%