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Study Hall: LSU 30, Florida 27

Rob Foldy

LSU 30, Florida 27

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics Florida LSU Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 57 72
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 100.0%
Avg Starting FP 29.2 29.1 29.8
Possessions 12 13
Scoring Opportunities*
4 5
Points Per Opportunity 5.00 6.20 4.70
Leverage Rate** 68.4% 66.7% 68.3%
Close S&P*** 0.487 0.465 0.507
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Florida LSU
Total 18.0 21.6
Rushing 7.4 15.2
Passing 10.6 6.4
Success Rate (what's this?) Florida LSU Nat'l Avg
All (close) 42.1% 38.9% 42.0%
Rushing (close) 40.6% 43.5% 43.4%
Passing (close) 44.0% 30.8% 40.6%
Standard Downs 51.3% 45.8% 47.3%
Passing Downs 22.2% 25.0% 30.6%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Florida LSU Nat'l Avg
All (close) 0.75 0.77 0.85
Rushing (close) 0.57 0.76 0.73
Passing (close) 0.97 0.80 0.99
Standard Downs 0.68 0.62 0.77
Passing Downs 1.12 1.33 1.14
Line Stats Florida LSU Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 2.43 3.30 2.92
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 0.0% 16.7% 4.7%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 0.0% 14.3% 7.3%
Turnovers Florida LSU
Turnovers 3 0
Turnover Points (what's this?) 10.5 0.0
Turnover Margin LSU +3
Exp. TO Margin Florida +0.22
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) LSU +3.22
TO Points Margin LSU +10.5 points
Situational Florida LSU
Q1 S&P 0.581 0.447
Q2 S&P 0.393 0.494
Q3 S&P 0.181 0.523
Q4 S&P 0.627 0.421
1st Down S&P 0.549 0.498
2nd Down S&P 0.516 0.473
3rd Down S&P 0.262 0.471
Projected Scoring Margin: LSU by 14.0
Actual Scoring Margin: LSU by 3

Taking turnovers (and turnovers luck) into account, it's a wonder that LSU didn't win this game more comfortably, but Florida got a return touchdown from Andre Debose and was able to render LSU as ineffective on passing downs as its own offense was. And in the end, whoever lost this game was going to feel like they threw one away.