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Study Hall: Oregon 42, UCLA 30

Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Oregon 42, UCLA 30

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Basics Oregon UCLA Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 68 92
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 66.9%
Avg Starting FP 36.3 19.4 29.8
Possessions 12 12
Scoring Opportunities*
9 6
Points Per Opportunity 4.67 5.17 4.70
Leverage Rate** 57.4% 43.5% 68.3%
Close S&P*** 0.632 0.497 0.507
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Oregon UCLA
Total 35.2 33.8
Rushing 20.0 17.7
Passing 15.2 16.1
Success Rate (what's this?) Oregon UCLA Nat'l Avg
All (close) 56.0% 47.4% 42.0%
Rushing (close) 60.0% 54.6% 43.4%
Passing (close) 50.0% 37.5% 40.6%
Standard Downs 59.0% 50.0% 47.3%
Passing Downs 45.5% 41.2% 30.6%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Oregon UCLA Nat'l Avg
All (close) 0.92 0.59 0.85
Rushing (close) 0.86 0.57 0.73
Passing (close) 1.03 0.62 0.99
Standard Downs 0.78 0.43 0.77
Passing Downs 1.57 1.06 1.14
Line Stats Oregon UCLA Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 4.43 4.00 2.92
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 0.0% 0.0% 4.7%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 0.0% 11.1% 7.3%
Turnovers Oregon UCLA
Turnovers 0 2
Turnover Points (what's this?) 0.0 11.6
Turnover Margin Oregon +2
Exp. TO Margin UCLA +0.29
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) Oregon +2.29
TO Points Margin Oregon +11.6 points
Situational Oregon UCLA
Q1 S&P 0.507 0.476
Q2 S&P 0.621 0.552
Q3 S&P 0.724 0.340
Q4 S&P 0.615 0.701
1st Down S&P 0.609 0.575
2nd Down S&P 0.663 0.409
3rd Down S&P 0.669 0.652
Projected Scoring Margin: Oregon by 13.0
Actual Scoring Margin: Oregon by 12

Oregon recovered all three of the game's fumbles -- one (by UCLA's Brett Hundley) at the UCLA 13, one (by Oregon's Marcus Mariota) at the UCLA 23, and one (by Oregon's Charles Nelson) at the Oregon 31. The Ducks soon scored after all three recoveries. That was lucky, but the Ducks still did enough to win overall thanks to the type of Oregon run efficiency we're used to seeing (but didn't see in a loss to Arizona). UCLA's defense isn't nearly as good as it was supposed to be, but this was still a lovely win for a team that needed it.