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Study Hall: Duke 31, Georgia Tech 25

Scott Cunningham

Duke 31, Georgia Tech 25

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics Duke Georgia Tech Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 73 72
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 93.8%
Avg Starting FP 34.5 31.6 29.8
Possessions 11 10
Scoring Opportunities*
6 7
Points Per Opportunity 5.17 3.86 4.70
Leverage Rate** 76.7% 68.1% 68.3%
Close S&P*** 0.550 0.549 0.507
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Duke Georgia Tech
Total 25.3 29.0
Rushing 17.0 19.1
Passing 8.3 9.9
Success Rate (what's this?) Duke Georgia Tech Nat'l Avg
All (close) 52.1% 50.8% 42.0%
Rushing (close) 60.4% 57.5% 43.4%
Passing (close) 36.0% 39.1% 40.6%
Standard Downs 57.1% 51.0% 47.3%
Passing Downs 35.3% 50.0% 30.6%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Duke Georgia Tech Nat'l Avg
All (close) 0.67 0.71 0.85
Rushing (close) 0.59 0.65 0.73
Passing (close) 0.92 0.87 0.99
Standard Downs 0.59 0.71 0.77
Passing Downs 1.08 0.74 1.14
Line Stats Duke Georgia Tech Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 3.37 4.16 2.92
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 0.0% 6.7% 4.7%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 0.0% 0.0% 7.3%
Turnovers Duke Georgia Tech
Turnovers 0 3
Turnover Points (what's this?) 0.0 9.6
Turnover Margin Duke +3
Exp. TO Margin Duke +0.29
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) Duke +2.71
TO Points Margin Duke +9.6 points
Situational Duke Georgia Tech
Q1 S&P 0.492 0.570
Q2 S&P 0.606 0.547
Q3 S&P 0.605 0.454
Q4 S&P 0.506 0.689
1st Down S&P 0.567 0.520
2nd Down S&P 0.542 0.620
3rd Down S&P 0.555 0.662
Projected Scoring Margin: Duke by 5.9
Actual Scoring Margin: Duke by 6

Both teams were crazy-efficient here, on both standard downs and passing downs, and field position was reasonably even. So the game boiled down to turnovers and finishing drives (like seemingly every other game in Week 7). Duke won both of those battles handily, forcing Georgia Tech to settle for three field goals, picking a ball off at its 5, and dabbling in a little bit of turnovers luck.