clock menu more-arrow no yes

Filed under:

Study Hall: Clemson 23, Louisville 17

New, 1 comment
Joshua S. Kelly-USA TODAY Sports

Clemson 23, Louisville 17

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics Clemson Louisville Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 71 68
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 100.0%
Avg Starting FP 28.8 31.4 29.8
Possessions 18 18
Scoring Opportunities*
5 4
Points Per Opportunity 1.80 4.25 4.70
Leverage Rate** 73.2% 61.8% 68.3%
Close S&P*** 0.367 0.405 0.507
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Clemson Louisville
Total 12.4 17.2
Rushing 4.3 4.9
Passing 8.1 12.3
Success Rate (what's this?) Clemson Louisville Nat'l Avg
All (close) 32.4% 27.9% 42.0%
Rushing (close) 31.0% 35.3% 43.4%
Passing (close) 33.3% 20.6% 40.6%
Standard Downs 40.4% 38.1% 47.3%
Passing Downs 10.5% 11.5% 30.6%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Clemson Louisville Nat'l Avg
All (close) 0.54 0.91 0.85
Rushing (close) 0.48 0.41 0.73
Passing (close) 0.58 1.76 0.99
Standard Downs 0.51 0.77 0.77
Passing Downs 0.89 1.62 1.14
Line Stats Clemson Louisville Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 2.42 2.07 2.92
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 3.6% 6.3% 4.7%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 14.3% 16.7% 7.3%
Turnovers Clemson Louisville
Turnovers 2 2
Turnover Points (what's this?) 6.2 10.0
Turnover Margin +0
Exp. TO Margin Clemson +0.5
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) Louisville +0.5
TO Points Margin Clemson +3.8 points
Situational Clemson Louisville
Q1 S&P 0.136 0.374
Q2 S&P 0.390 0.350
Q3 S&P 0.378 0.472
Q4 S&P 0.475 0.487
1st Down S&P 0.455 0.528
2nd Down S&P 0.381 0.410
3rd Down S&P 0.179 0.263
Projected Scoring Margin: Louisville by 1.0
Actual Scoring Margin: Clemson by 6

A Chad Morris offense and a Bobby Petrino offense combining for 493 yards, 22 first downs, and one offensive touchdown. I wouldn't have thought that possible.

This wasn't the most quarterback-friendly week of the season, and we won't get to watch DeShaun Watson play for a while, which stinks. The Clemson offense wasn't doing anything in particular before he got hurt (2-for-6 for minus-5 yards, three rushes for 10 yards), but it also didn't do anything with Cole Stoudt taking over again (20-for-33, 162 yards, one pick, three sacks). Despite the names on the sidelines, this was a battle of two flawed offenses (Off. F/+ Rank: Clemson 34, Louisville 66) and two hellacious defenses (Def. F/+ Rank: Louisville 1, Clemson 7). And turnovers and an early punt return touchdown gave Clemson the narrowest of edges despite a field position loss and horrific red zone execution.