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Michigan 18, Penn State 13
Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.
| Basics | Michigan | Penn State | Nat'l Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Plays | 57 | 68 | |
| Close Rate (non-garbage time) | 100.0% | ||
| Avg Starting FP | 38.3 | 27.8 | 29.8 |
| Possessions | 12 | 12 | |
| Scoring Opportunities* |
5 | 4 | |
| Points Per Opportunity | 3.20 | 3.25 | 4.70 |
| Leverage Rate** | 63.2% | 63.2% | 68.3% |
| Close S&P*** | 0.406 | 0.383 | 0.507 |
|
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40). ** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs) *** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP) |
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| EqPts (what's this?) | Michigan | Penn State | |
| Total | 13.8 | 12.1 | |
| Rushing | 2.7 | 4.0 | |
| Passing | 11.1 | 8.0 | |
| Success Rate (what's this?) | Michigan | Penn State | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 31.6% | 35.3% | 42.0% |
| Rushing (close) | 28.6% | 34.5% | 43.4% |
| Passing (close) | 34.5% | 35.9% | 40.6% |
| Standard Downs | 36.1% | 41.9% | 47.3% |
| Passing Downs | 23.8% | 24.0% | 30.6% |
| IsoPPP (what's this?) | Michigan | Penn State | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 0.76 | 0.50 | 0.85 |
| Rushing (close) | 0.34 | 0.40 | 0.73 |
| Passing (close) | 1.11 | 0.57 | 0.99 |
| Standard Downs | 0.66 | 0.37 | 0.77 |
| Passing Downs | 1.04 | 0.89 | 1.14 |
| Line Stats | Michigan | Penn State | Nat'l Avg |
| Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) | 1.93 | 1.92 | 2.92 |
| Std. Downs Sack Rt. | 6.3% | 8.7% | 4.7% |
| Pass. Downs Sack Rt. | 15.4% | 25.0% | 7.3% |
| Turnovers | Michigan | Penn State |
|---|---|---|
| Turnovers | 1 | 1 |
| Turnover Points (what's this?) | 5.0 | 4.3 |
| Turnover Margin | +0 | |
| Exp. TO Margin | Penn State +0.66 | |
| TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) | Michigan +0.66 | |
| TO Points Margin | Penn State +0.7 points | |
| Situational | Michigan | Penn State |
| Q1 S&P | 0.696 | 0.504 |
| Q2 S&P | 0.330 | 0.438 |
| Q3 S&P | 0.284 | 0.268 |
| Q4 S&P | 0.416 | 0.303 |
| 1st Down S&P | 0.450 | 0.405 |
| 2nd Down S&P | 0.348 | 0.396 |
| 3rd Down S&P | 0.433 | 0.390 |
| Projected Scoring Margin: Michigan by 1.0 | ||
| Actual Scoring Margin: Michigan by 5 | ||
It would be redundant to talk about Michigan's efficiency issues at this point -- of course there are efficiency issues. Of course Michigan couldn't run the ball, of course the pass protection (and the decision-making of the passer being protected) was sketchy, and of course they blew scoring opportunities with aplomb. That's just what the Michigan offense is going to do this year, especially against a solid defense.
But the Wolverines won anyway, and good for them. They leveraged the field, they made Penn State almost as inefficient as they were, and they made Christian Hackenberg's life hell on passing downs. They were maybe a hair lucky in terms of turnovers and strange offsides-on-onsides-kick calls, but despite all the turmoil, they beat a decent team. Dance, Dennis Norfleet (via).