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Study Hall: Michigan 18, Penn State 13

Gregory Shamus

Michigan 18, Penn State 13

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics Michigan Penn State Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 57 68
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 100.0%
Avg Starting FP 38.3 27.8 29.8
Possessions 12 12
Scoring Opportunities*
5 4
Points Per Opportunity 3.20 3.25 4.70
Leverage Rate** 63.2% 63.2% 68.3%
Close S&P*** 0.406 0.383 0.507
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Michigan Penn State
Total 13.8 12.1
Rushing 2.7 4.0
Passing 11.1 8.0
Success Rate (what's this?) Michigan Penn State Nat'l Avg
All (close) 31.6% 35.3% 42.0%
Rushing (close) 28.6% 34.5% 43.4%
Passing (close) 34.5% 35.9% 40.6%
Standard Downs 36.1% 41.9% 47.3%
Passing Downs 23.8% 24.0% 30.6%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Michigan Penn State Nat'l Avg
All (close) 0.76 0.50 0.85
Rushing (close) 0.34 0.40 0.73
Passing (close) 1.11 0.57 0.99
Standard Downs 0.66 0.37 0.77
Passing Downs 1.04 0.89 1.14
Line Stats Michigan Penn State Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 1.93 1.92 2.92
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 6.3% 8.7% 4.7%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 15.4% 25.0% 7.3%
Turnovers Michigan Penn State
Turnovers 1 1
Turnover Points (what's this?) 5.0 4.3
Turnover Margin +0
Exp. TO Margin Penn State +0.66
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) Michigan +0.66
TO Points Margin Penn State +0.7 points
Situational Michigan Penn State
Q1 S&P 0.696 0.504
Q2 S&P 0.330 0.438
Q3 S&P 0.284 0.268
Q4 S&P 0.416 0.303
1st Down S&P 0.450 0.405
2nd Down S&P 0.348 0.396
3rd Down S&P 0.433 0.390
Projected Scoring Margin: Michigan by 1.0
Actual Scoring Margin: Michigan by 5

It would be redundant to talk about Michigan's efficiency issues at this point -- of course there are efficiency issues. Of course Michigan couldn't run the ball, of course the pass protection (and the decision-making of the passer being protected) was sketchy, and of course they blew scoring opportunities with aplomb. That's just what the Michigan offense is going to do this year, especially against a solid defense.

But the Wolverines won anyway, and good for them. They leveraged the field, they made Penn State almost as inefficient as they were, and they made Christian Hackenberg's life hell on passing downs. They were maybe a hair lucky in terms of turnovers and strange offsides-on-onsides-kick calls, but despite all the turmoil, they beat a decent team. Dance, Dennis Norfleet (via).