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Study Hall: Eastern Michigan 37, Buffalo 27

Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports

Eastern Michigan 37, Buffalo 27

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Basics Buffalo Eastern Michigan Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 81 67
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 84.5%
Avg Starting FP 33.7 32.0 29.8
Possessions 15 15
Scoring Opportunities*
9 7
Points Per Opportunity 3.00 5.43 4.70
Leverage Rate** 51.9% 74.6% 68.3%
Close S&P*** 0.451 0.589 0.507
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Buffalo Eastern Michigan
Total 31.3 34.7
Rushing 7.4 23.9
Passing 23.9 10.8
Success Rate (what's this?) Buffalo Eastern Michigan Nat'l Avg
All (close) 32.8% 37.5% 42.0%
Rushing (close) 43.3% 37.8% 43.4%
Passing (close) 22.6% 36.8% 40.6%
Standard Downs 33.3% 38.0% 47.3%
Passing Downs 31.6% 35.7% 30.6%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Buffalo Eastern Michigan Nat'l Avg
All (close) 0.95 1.45 0.85
Rushing (close) 0.64 1.40 0.73
Passing (close) 1.50 1.55 0.99
Standard Downs 0.86 1.28 0.77
Passing Downs 1.15 2.07 1.14
Line Stats Buffalo Eastern Michigan Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 3.09 3.30 2.92
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 5.6% 7.1% 4.7%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 7.7% 0.0% 7.3%
Turnovers Buffalo Eastern Michigan
Turnovers 3 1
Turnover Points (what's this?) 11.6 5.0
Turnover Margin Eastern Michigan +2
Exp. TO Margin Eastern Michigan +1.39
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) Eastern Michigan +0.61
TO Points Margin Eastern Michigan +6.6 points
Situational Buffalo Eastern Michigan
Q1 S&P 0.571 0.244
Q2 S&P 0.470 0.457
Q3 S&P 0.323 0.687
Q4 S&P 0.571 0.809
1st Down S&P 0.523 0.526
2nd Down S&P 0.381 0.721
3rd Down S&P 0.633 0.458
Projected Scoring Margin: Eastern Michigan by 10.1
Actual Scoring Margin: Eastern Michigan by 10

A hell of a day for EMU quarterback Reginald Bell: 8-for-13 passing for 144 yards and a touchdown ... and 17 carries for 202 yards and three scores. EMU let UB go up 10-0, then scored 37 of the next 47 points, capping the game with a 72-yard run by Bell with 2:25 left. EMU avoided psasing downs, did just enough through the air to keep UB from ganging up on the run, blocked better, and won the turnover battle. Not a bad recipe. And it earned the Eagles their first win over an FBS team not named WMU since October 2012. (They were 2-0 against WMU, 2-0 against MEAC teams, and 0-18 against everybody else.)