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Tom Pennington

Baylor 61, TCU 58

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Basics Baylor TCU Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 109 92
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 98.0%
Avg Starting FP 27.6 33.4 29.8
Possessions 19 17
Scoring Opportunities*
11 8
Points Per Opportunity 5.27 5.50 4.70
Leverage Rate** 65.1% 65.2% 68.3%
Close S&P*** 0.560 0.520 0.507
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Baylor TCU
Total 52.1 38.7
Rushing 16.3 21.1
Passing 35.8 17.6
Success Rate (what's this?) Baylor TCU Nat'l Avg
All (close) 44.8% 34.8% 42.0%
Rushing (close) 47.8% 40.5% 43.4%
Passing (close) 42.4% 30.0% 40.6%
Standard Downs 53.5% 40.0% 47.3%
Passing Downs 26.5% 25.0% 30.6%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Baylor TCU Nat'l Avg
All (close) 1.01 1.21 0.85
Rushing (close) 0.53 1.24 0.73
Passing (close) 1.43 1.17 0.99
Standard Downs 0.88 1.18 0.77
Passing Downs 1.55 1.29 1.14
Line Stats Baylor TCU Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 3.93 1.79 2.92
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 7.9% 0.0% 4.7%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 4.8% 9.1% 7.3%
Turnovers Baylor TCU
Turnovers 3 1
Turnover Points (what's this?) 17.6 5.1
Turnover Margin TCU +2
Exp. TO Margin Baylor +1.46
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) TCU +3.46
TO Points Margin TCU +12.5 points
Situational Baylor TCU
Q1 S&P 0.516 0.570
Q2 S&P 0.602 0.435
Q3 S&P 0.529 0.680
Q4 S&P 0.667 0.367
1st Down S&P 0.644 0.527
2nd Down S&P 0.550 0.429
3rd Down S&P 0.483 0.615
Projected Scoring Margin: Baylor by 0.8
Actual Scoring Margin: Baylor by 3

I've already written a bunch of words about this one, I guess. TCU almost used turnovers, field position, and big plays to overcome Baylor's relentless deep balls and efficient rushing but couldn't. Still, assuming Oklahoma now beats Baylor in Norman, we've got ourselves a hell of a three-way Big 12 race. This'll be the topic of tomorrow's Win Projection Wednesday piece at SB Nation, but in the F/+ ratings, OU ranks fourth, TCU fifth, and Baylor seventh. Kansas State (29th) and Oklahoma State (30th) lurk.