:format(webp)/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/41883796/457079450.0.jpg)
Baylor 61, TCU 58
Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.
| Basics | Baylor | TCU | Nat'l Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Plays | 109 | 92 | |
| Close Rate (non-garbage time) | 98.0% | ||
| Avg Starting FP | 27.6 | 33.4 | 29.8 |
| Possessions | 19 | 17 | |
| Scoring Opportunities* |
11 | 8 | |
| Points Per Opportunity | 5.27 | 5.50 | 4.70 |
| Leverage Rate** | 65.1% | 65.2% | 68.3% |
| Close S&P*** | 0.560 | 0.520 | 0.507 |
|
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40). ** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs) *** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP) |
|||
| EqPts (what's this?) | Baylor | TCU | |
| Total | 52.1 | 38.7 | |
| Rushing | 16.3 | 21.1 | |
| Passing | 35.8 | 17.6 | |
| Success Rate (what's this?) | Baylor | TCU | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 44.8% | 34.8% | 42.0% |
| Rushing (close) | 47.8% | 40.5% | 43.4% |
| Passing (close) | 42.4% | 30.0% | 40.6% |
| Standard Downs | 53.5% | 40.0% | 47.3% |
| Passing Downs | 26.5% | 25.0% | 30.6% |
| IsoPPP (what's this?) | Baylor | TCU | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 1.01 | 1.21 | 0.85 |
| Rushing (close) | 0.53 | 1.24 | 0.73 |
| Passing (close) | 1.43 | 1.17 | 0.99 |
| Standard Downs | 0.88 | 1.18 | 0.77 |
| Passing Downs | 1.55 | 1.29 | 1.14 |
| Line Stats | Baylor | TCU | Nat'l Avg |
| Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) | 3.93 | 1.79 | 2.92 |
| Std. Downs Sack Rt. | 7.9% | 0.0% | 4.7% |
| Pass. Downs Sack Rt. | 4.8% | 9.1% | 7.3% |
| Turnovers | Baylor | TCU |
|---|---|---|
| Turnovers | 3 | 1 |
| Turnover Points (what's this?) | 17.6 | 5.1 |
| Turnover Margin | TCU +2 | |
| Exp. TO Margin | Baylor +1.46 | |
| TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) | TCU +3.46 | |
| TO Points Margin | TCU +12.5 points | |
| Situational | Baylor | TCU |
| Q1 S&P | 0.516 | 0.570 |
| Q2 S&P | 0.602 | 0.435 |
| Q3 S&P | 0.529 | 0.680 |
| Q4 S&P | 0.667 | 0.367 |
| 1st Down S&P | 0.644 | 0.527 |
| 2nd Down S&P | 0.550 | 0.429 |
| 3rd Down S&P | 0.483 | 0.615 |
| Projected Scoring Margin: Baylor by 0.8 | ||
| Actual Scoring Margin: Baylor by 3 | ||
I've already written a bunch of words about this one, I guess. TCU almost used turnovers, field position, and big plays to overcome Baylor's relentless deep balls and efficient rushing but couldn't. Still, assuming Oklahoma now beats Baylor in Norman, we've got ourselves a hell of a three-way Big 12 race. This'll be the topic of tomorrow's Win Projection Wednesday piece at SB Nation, but in the F/+ ratings, OU ranks fourth, TCU fifth, and Baylor seventh. Kansas State (29th) and Oklahoma State (30th) lurk.
Loading comments...