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Study Hall: Oklahoma State 27, Kansas 20

John Rieger-USA TODAY Sports

Oklahoma State 27, Kansas 20

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Basics Kansas Oklahoma State Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 78 68
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 100.0%
Avg Starting FP 28.2 36.2 29.8
Possessions 15 14
Scoring Opportunities*
6 6
Points Per Opportunity 3.33 3.33 4.70
Leverage Rate** 62.8% 61.8% 68.3%
Close S&P*** 0.438 0.420 0.507
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Kansas Oklahoma State
Total 21.7 17.2
Rushing 7.9 8.5
Passing 13.8 8.6
Success Rate (what's this?) Kansas Oklahoma State Nat'l Avg
All (close) 34.6% 33.8% 42.0%
Rushing (close) 29.0% 27.3% 43.4%
Passing (close) 40.0% 40.0% 40.6%
Standard Downs 46.9% 35.7% 47.3%
Passing Downs 13.8% 30.8% 30.6%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Kansas Oklahoma State Nat'l Avg
All (close) 0.80 0.75 0.85
Rushing (close) 0.72 0.95 0.73
Passing (close) 0.86 0.62 0.99
Standard Downs 0.77 0.29 0.77
Passing Downs 0.98 1.61 1.14
Line Stats Kansas Oklahoma State Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 2.01 2.34 2.92
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 0.0% 11.1% 4.7%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 14.3% 11.8% 7.3%
Turnovers Kansas Oklahoma State
Turnovers 1 2
Turnover Points (what's this?) 5.1 9.4
Turnover Margin Kansas +1
Exp. TO Margin Oklahoma State +0.14
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) Kansas +1.14
TO Points Margin Kansas +4.3 points
Situational Kansas Oklahoma State
Q1 S&P 0.593 0.509
Q2 S&P 0.306 0.507
Q3 S&P 0.401 0.355
Q4 S&P 0.473 0.218
1st Down S&P 0.492 0.347
2nd Down S&P 0.406 0.278
3rd Down S&P 0.376 0.692
Projected Scoring Margin: Kansas by 8.9
Actual Scoring Margin: Oklahoma State by 7

I've been a fan of Clint Bowen's Kansas defense for a while, and the Jayhawks are now up to 47th in Def. F/+. Good unit.

Still, even against a decent defense, OSU quarterback Daxx Garman's stat line is alarming: 17-for-31, 161 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, 4 sacks for 30 yards. That's 35 pass attempts, 131 yards, 3.7 per attempt.

Kansas' defensive front owned Oklahoma State in this game, and Garman's inefficiencies (he throws a lovely deep ball but struggles otherwise), combined with some pretty impressive turnovers luck for KU, almost cost OSU dearly. But luckily for the 'Pokes, after tying the game at 20-20, Kansas elected to kick to Tyreek Hill. His kick return touchdown with seven minutes left made the difference.