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Study Hall: Michigan State 45, Purdue 31

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Sandra Dukes-USA TODAY Sports

Michigan State 45, Purdue 31

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Basics Michigan State Purdue Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 80 62
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 90.8%
Avg Starting FP 31.7 29.9 29.8
Possessions 12 13
Scoring Opportunities*
9 5
Points Per Opportunity 4.22 6.20 4.70
Leverage Rate** 62.5% 54.8% 68.3%
Close S&P*** 0.592 0.473 0.507
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Michigan State Purdue
Total 36.2 23.5
Rushing 18.5 12.4
Passing 17.7 11.1
Success Rate (what's this?) Michigan State Purdue Nat'l Avg
All (close) 51.4% 38.2% 42.0%
Rushing (close) 59.0% 35.0% 43.4%
Passing (close) 42.9% 40.0% 40.6%
Standard Downs 56.0% 47.1% 47.3%
Passing Downs 41.7% 23.8% 30.6%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Michigan State Purdue Nat'l Avg
All (close) 0.90 0.84 0.85
Rushing (close) 0.75 1.05 0.73
Passing (close) 1.14 0.73 0.99
Standard Downs 0.85 0.88 0.77
Passing Downs 1.05 0.70 1.14
Line Stats Michigan State Purdue Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 3.64 2.85 2.92
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 0.0% 10.0% 4.7%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 0.0% 0.0% 7.3%
Turnovers Michigan State Purdue
Turnovers 1 2
Turnover Points (what's this?) 6.0 11.1
Turnover Margin Michigan State +1
Exp. TO Margin Purdue +0.15
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) Michigan State +1.15
TO Points Margin Michigan State +5.1 points
Situational Michigan State Purdue
Q1 S&P 0.733 0.467
Q2 S&P 0.575 0.792
Q3 S&P 0.633 0.135
Q4 S&P 0.409 0.520
1st Down S&P 0.582 0.546
2nd Down S&P 0.627 0.421
3rd Down S&P 0.609 0.235
Projected Scoring Margin: Michigan State by 17.8
Actual Scoring Margin: Michigan State by 14

My first reaction to this game was to seriously question Michigan State. The Spartans are suddenly not closing out games very well and needed a pick six (and a helping of turnovers luck) to put away a team that is currently 4-15 under Darrell Hazell. And to be sure, if you're one-loss Michigan State, and you hvae no margin for error in the national title race, you pretty much have to look fantastic move of the time from here on out, and giving both Nebraska and Purdue the ball with a chance to tie or take the lead in the fourth quarter is not a particularly good look. That said...

...over the last five games, Purdue hasn't been terrible. The Boilers haven't been good, either, but they had Notre Dame down late in the first half and were within 24-14 heading into the fourth quarter. They disposed of Southern Illinois like you're supposed to. They had the ball down just seven points to Iowa in the fourth quarter. They ran all over Illinois in a road win. And they had the ball down just seven points to Michigan State in the fourth quarter. They're just 70th in the F/+ rankings, but ... they ranked 114th last year. They're improving. If State fancies a national title run, the Spartans need to dispose of the 70th-ranked team better than this. But "You tried to lose to PURDUE" doesn't have quite the same ring this year. Purdue's not terrible.